030
FXUS63 KGID 150530
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1230 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 9 PM FOR MOST OF OUR COUNTIES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA-KANSAS BORDER (RH 15-25%, WSW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH)
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM KEARNEY AND HOLDREGE AND POINTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS YORK AND FULLERTON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THROUGH AROUND OR
JUST AFTER SUNSET.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 3 PM
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- FRIDAY'S STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY RESULTING IN MORNING HIGHS, STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (LIKELY
NOT A NICE DAY). BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
- STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 30
MPH AND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH LIKELY. (NOT A NICE DAY)
- ALMOST DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURS ONWARD: EACH
AFTERNOON BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY, AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP WITHIN AT LEAST
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW DAYS COULD ALSO SEE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS, INCLUDING ALREADY ON
THURSDAY.
- SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND: SOME
AREAS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ALREADY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MOST AREAS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING. DID YOU
ALREADY PLANT YOUR TOMATOES (BETTER COVER THEM).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
TODAY...
THE SPC EXPANDED THE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM
KEARNEY TOWARDS YORK. WE HAVE SEEN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
CU FIELD AROUND THE TRI-CITIES AND ARE GETTING CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS NARROW FRONTAL ZONE WHERE MOISTURE HAS
BEEN POOLING ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50F. THESE
WILL MAINLY BE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODEST MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG, AND
VERY STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR (65 KTS). QUARTER SIZED HAIL IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT LARGER DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG SUGGEST
THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
TONIGHT...
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY. HOWEVER,
THINGS COULD GET MORE INTERESTING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...
THE LAST TWO RUNS (12Z AND 18Z) OF THE RRFS HAVE BEEN INDICATING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND DAWN.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING,
COULD IMPACT THE TRI-CITIES, AND EXIT OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LIKELY BEFORE 3 PM). ALTHOUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOME OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE HAIL AND WIND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH COOLER
60S BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN IT FEELING NOT AS NICE
AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT.
THURSDAY...
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE WARM DAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.
IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WE HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PLEASE
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
A BIG OPEN WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT
THE TIMING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR AREA TO SEE MUCH IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. AN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OUR FORECAST
IS PROBABLY TOO WARM AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SEE SOME
AREAS FALLING INTO THE 40S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF IT STARTS
OUT NICE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, IT
PROBABLY WON'T END VERY NICE BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT. FIRE
WEATHER IS AGAIN A CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE COLD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WE SHOULD QUICKLY SEE A WARMER
WEATHER PATTERN RETURN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN UNITED
STATES TROUGH. THAT TROUGH COULD BRING US SOME MID WEEK RAIN.
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE AS IT'S STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN FOCUSED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THE
REST OF TONIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND 10-15 MPH. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA, MAINLY FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WITH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE, KEPT THE MENTION IN A PROB30 GROUP. ALSO
INCLUDED IN THAT MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GROUP IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH LATEST RUN OF MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF THAT POTENTIAL A TOUCH. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END
BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD DRY. WINDS
DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY, THEN
MORE WESTERLY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. EVENING HOURS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING SOUTH OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. THIS INCLUDES OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER AS WELL AS ALL OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER ALONG THE I80 (TRI-CITIES) AREA.
THURSDAY:
WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO COOLER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE HEAT,
DRIER RH, AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON-
EARLY EVENING AS HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN JUMP INTO THE 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH/GUSTING AT LEAST 25 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TANK TO AROUND 10-20% IN THE AFTERNOON.
WE MAY NEED FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
WANTED TO GET THROUGH TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING FIRST BEFORE
ISSUING FOR THURSDAY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY:
THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND IT WILL GET
COOLER. THE AIRMASS BEHIND FRIDAY'S SYSTEM IS DRY AND RH VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DURING
THIS PERIOD FOR SOME AREAS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
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