347
FXUS63 KGID 152135
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
435 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SPOTTY SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH) ARE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEASONABLY COLD AIR IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A MILD LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING
AND FAST START TO THE GROWING SEASON, WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
ISSUE OUR FIRST FREEZE WARNINGS AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES OF THE
SEASON FOR SATURDAY AM AND/OR SUNDAY AM BECAUSE OF NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY-SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
IT'S BEEN A STEADILY ACTIVE DAY THUS FAR, WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT ROUNDS OR BURSTS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING
DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HEATING-OF-THE-DAY BENEATH
A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIFTING E/NE
ACROSS NEBRASKA. HAD A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EARLIER IN
THE DAY, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF UNDER THE
MID LEVEL LOW TO HELP OFFSET ANY SORT OF MODEST INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THUS, DON'T
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN MAYBE ISOLATED/BRIEF PEA-SIZED HAIL IN
ONLY THE STRONGEST OF CORES. MODELS HAVEN'T REALLY BEEN HANDLING
THIS ACTIVITY VERY WELL (TOO DRY AND/OR SPARSE), BUT
CONCEPTUALLY SPEAKING, WOULD EXPECT A RATHER RAPID DECLINE WITH
LOSS OF INSOLATION THIS EVENING. REST OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS
QUIET AND SEASONABLY MILD AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER - WHICH IS
DISCUSSED IN GREATER DETAIL BELOW. GOING TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY
ONE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. BUMPED UP HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES
FOR MOST SPOTS GIVEN DEEP MIXING, LITTLE CLOUD COVER, AND DRY
GROUND/DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AND EXPECT NEARLY EVERYONE TO REACH
AT LEAST THE MID 80S. TYPICAL WARM SPOTS COULD FLIRT WITH 90F.
TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK
WITH RECENT FORECASTS...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM FROM
NW TO SE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 MPH, PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER. LATEST EPS GIVES 60-80% CHANCES OF GUSTS AT
LEAST 40 MPH FOR LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND VERY
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 55 MPH. THUS, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE NEEDING A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
FRONTAL TIMING IS DEFINITELY NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, OR EVEN RAINFALL, FOR OUR AREA. BY 21Z, MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SFC FRONT TO STRETCH FROM ICT TO STJ - OR
WELL TO OUR SE. AND WITH CONTINUED, STEADY SEWARD PROGRESSION
THU PM, THINK EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS SOME 20-30% POPS ON FRIDAY FOR EXTREME
SE ZONES, BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.
LASTLY...SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS QUITE BLUSTERY
AND CHILLY - ESP. IN THE AM - WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BOTH
NIGHTS (COLDEST N/W OF THE TRI-CITIES). THIS TYPE OF COLD ISN'T
OVERLY UNCOMMON FOR OUR AREA IN MID-APRIL (TYPICAL LAST FREEZE
ISN'T UNTIL LAST WEEK OF APRIL OR FIRST WEEK OF MAY FOR ALL BUT
OUR FAR SE)...BUT WITH THE INCREDIBLY MILD LATE WINTER AND EARLY
SPRING...MANY PLANTS/TREES AND EVEN GENERAL SOCIETY IS RUNNING 2-3
WEEKS AHEAD OF "NORMAL". THUS, WILL LIKELY NEED SOME SORT OF
MIX OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND TO DRAW ATTENTION
TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
THE COLD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WE SHOULD QUICKLY SEE A WARMER
WEATHER PATTERN RETURN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN UNITED
STATES TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT TROUGH COULD BRING US SOME
MID WEEK RAIN. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE AS IT'S STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND OFF AND ON THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY AND COVERAGE, OPTED TO JUST KEEP IT VCSH ATTM.
BREEZY N/NW WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING, THEN TURN TO THE S/SSW FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY OUT OF THE S-SW ALL DAY ON THURSDAY - SUSTAINED AROUND
15KT AND GUSTS AROUND 25KT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TRULY APPRECIABLE RAIN HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY THIS SPRING,
AND THE NEAR-TERM TRENDS DON'T LOOK ANY BETTER. AS A RESULT, AND
BECAUSE SPRING GREEN- UP HAS YET TO FULLY TAKE HOLD, WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN EARNEST AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO SOLIDLY- BREEZY LEVELS. EXPECT COMMONLY
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. MEANWHILE, AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN JUMP BACK UP INTO THE AT LEAST THE
MID-80S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) WILL PLUNGE TO 10-20 PERCENT -
LOWEST W OF HWY 281. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNINGS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...RUNNING A BIT LATER THAN "USUAL" GIVEN
THAT DIURNAL RH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EVENING WILL BE QUITE A
BIT SLOWER THAN USUAL.
- FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
WHILE MODERATELY STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE A CERTAINTY AS A COLD
FRONT SLICES SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION (GUSTS AT LEAST 40 MPH
LIKELY AT TIMES), FORTUNATELY THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO TREND COOLER WITH TIME...KEEPING RH FROM REALLY "TANKING". IN
FACT, NONE OF OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO SEE RH DROP
BELOW THE 20% CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT BEING SAID, PRIMARILY OUR
KS COUNTIES COULD SEE NEAR-CRITICAL RH DOWN TO AT LEAST 25%, SO
IT'S STILL A DAY WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
DESPITE BEING BY FAR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK (HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S MOST PLACES), VERY DRY AIR WILL
NONETHELESS DRIVE AFTERNOON RH DOWN TO AT LEAST 15-25%, WHILE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS AT LEAST 25-35 MPH. THUS, SOLIDLY NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AREA-
WIDE...BUT OVERALL-WORST IN OUR WESTERN HALF.
- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
SUNDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER "ONE DAY BREAK" FROM
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THANKS MAINLY TO SOMEWHAT-
LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WARM-UP ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS MAKES MONDAY ANOTHER EARLY CANDIDATE FOR POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...THIES/PFANNKUCH
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