235
FXUS63 KGID 172006
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
306 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 40-45 MPH THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
- CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA 1AM-9AM
SATURDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S FROM LEXINGTON
TO ORD.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM. RH VALUES
OF 14-20% AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL
BE A BIT LIGHTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN RH IS THE LOWEST. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SO
WILL THE WIND. EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. 70S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND THEN 80S MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AROUND SUNSET. THE WIND WILL DIE
DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE EXPECT
PRETTY COLD FROSTY TEMPERATURES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 32 IN BELOIT WITH A PRETTY
SOLID FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS. GET OUT THERE AND COVER YOUR
VULNERABLE PLANTS IF YOU ALREADY HAVE THEM IN THE GROUND. YOU
WILL ALSO NEED TO REMEMBER TO COVER THEM AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ROUND TWO OF THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...
WE HAVE A REALLY IMPRESSIVE SOUNDING WITH STEEP DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES TO OVER 650 MB INDICATING STRONG MIXING DOWN OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THEREFORE, INCREASED WINDS A BIT ABOVE
NBM GUIDANCE USING A MIX DOWN TOOL FOR BOTH WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. CONSEQUENTLY, ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES A
BIT BELOW NBM. THE WIND WILL BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG.
SUNDAY...
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER AND WE EXPECT ONE MORE COLD SUB-
FREEZING MORNING IN THE STRING OF COLD. IT'S HIGHLY LIKELY THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL NEED ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PLAN ON COVERING YOUR
SENSITIVE PLANTS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE DO EXPECT A NICE WARMUP INTO
THE 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SWING INTO THE REGION AND WE EXPECT
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEST OF US ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL
HOW MUCH RAIN IF ANY WE WILL GET FROM THIS SYSTEM. A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND IT'S TOO FAR
AWAY TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. BUT AT LEAST OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE
WEST, BUT THEY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LOWER END VFR CLOUDS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR, BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS MAKING FOR
A SUNNY DAY ON SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP BY
MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM. RH VALUES OF
14-20% AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
THERE ARE STEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO OVER 650 MB
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INDICATING STRONG MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. THEREFORE, INCREASED WINDS A BIT ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE
USING A MIX DOWN TOOL FOR BOTH WINDS AND DEW POINTS.
CONSEQUENTLY, ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES A BIT BELOW
NBM. THE WIND WILL BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL
BE A BIT LIGHTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN RH IS THE LOWEST. RH
VALUES WILL INCREASE SOME ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT SO
WILL THE WIND. EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER BY
MID TO LATE WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEED
ADDITIONAL RED FLAG WARNINGS BY MID TO LATE WEEK FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
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