917
FXUS63 KGID 181740
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT 12-8PM.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR-BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 70S AND 80S. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ONWARDS, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH/EAST
OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS HAVE RESULTED
IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S THIS MORNING. ALOFT THE
AREA IS UNDER THE BASE/CENTER OF A TROUGH TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE, IN
THE LOW 20S (NORTHWEST) TO LOW 30S (SOUTHEAST). A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 9AM.
A SEASONABLY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
(NORTH) TO LOW 60S (SOUTH). DESPITE THE COOLER WEATHER, DEWPOINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 25-35MPH COMBINED WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP
TOWARDS FREEZING TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING
LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS(SATURDAY) MORNING (LOWS:
UPPER 20S-LOW 30S). A FREEZE HEADLINE WAS CONSIDERED, BUT GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, A TRUE HARD FREEZE APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. IF TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER, A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S (NORTHEAST) TO UPPER 70S
(SOUTHWEST). LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY ON TRACK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (HIGHS 80S). THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. WHILE THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE WIND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES UNTIL WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AROUND SUNSET. THE WIND WILL DIE
DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE EXPECT
PRETTY COLD FROSTY TEMPERATURES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 32 IN BELOIT WITH A PRETTY
SOLID FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS. GET OUT THERE AND COVER YOUR
VULNERABLE PLANTS IF YOU ALREADY HAVE THEM IN THE GROUND. YOU
WILL ALSO NEED TO REMEMBER TO COVER THEM AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ROUND TWO OF THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...
WE HAVE A REALLY IMPRESSIVE SOUNDING WITH STEEP DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES TO OVER 650 MB INDICATING STRONG MIXING DOWN OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THEREFORE, INCREASED WINDS A BIT ABOVE
NBM GUIDANCE USING A MIX DOWN TOOL FOR BOTH WINDS AND DEW
POINTS. CONSEQUENTLY, ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RH VALUES A
BIT BELOW NBM. THE WIND WILL BE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG.
SUNDAY...
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER AND WE EXPECT ONE MORE COLD SUB-
FREEZING MORNING IN THE STRING OF COLD. IT'S HIGHLY LIKELY THAT
MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS WILL NEED ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PLAN ON COVERING YOUR
SENSITIVE PLANTS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE DO EXPECT A NICE WARMUP INTO
THE 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SWING INTO THE REGION AND WE EXPECT
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEST OF US ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND IT'S TOO EARLY TO TELL
HOW MUCH RAIN IF ANY WE WILL GET FROM THIS SYSTEM. A LOT WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND IT'S TOO FAR
AWAY TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT. BUT AT LEAST OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DESPITE A FEW LOW-LEVEL SCATTERED CUMULUS POPPING UP AROUND THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, CLOUD BASES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SPRINKLES TO SHORT PERIODS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT BEFORE 1Z UNDERNEATH A FEW
OF THE MORE ORGANIZED AREAS OF CUMULUS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
SOON GUST AS HIGH AS 25-35KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PICKING BACK
UP SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNSET, STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80. DESPITE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA 12-8PM. WHILE WINDS
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC MIXING,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE, REMAINING
BELOW 40% THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW ON SUNDAY AS WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 20MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 10-20% ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF WINDOW OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PHILLIPS/SMITH/ROOKS/OSBORNE COUNTIES WHERE
GUSTS OF 20-25MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY-FRIDAY DUE TO THE OVERLAP OF LOW
HUMIDITY (10-20% AND BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS AT LEAST 20-30MPH). THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
COVERAGE OF LOWER RH VALUES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page