889
FXUS63 KGID 190518
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1218 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BRINGS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
- BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HWY- 281.
- THE NEXT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY (20-35%) AND THURSDAY (25-45%). THE
BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S BY MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK, DROPPING
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, DRAGGING IN A COOLER AIRMASS TODAY, HAVE
HELPED KEEP HIGHS FROM ESCAPING OUT OF THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS
RESULT OF THE GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY, A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION.
WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT. THE CALM
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN NEAR TO
JUST UNDER FREEZING (OVERNIGHT LOWS: UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S). THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS NEAR AND MAINLY WEST OF
HWY-281 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT (1-6 HOURS). GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED THE THE NIGHT PREVIOUS AND GIVEN THE
SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, A FREEZE WARNING
WAS NOT CONCENTRATED AT THIS TIME. THOUGH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS COULD
BREAK WAY FOR A FEW AREAS OF FROST FORMATION (BEST CHANCES NORTHEAST
OF THE TRI-CITIES), THE LOWERED RH VALUES OVERNIGHT (40-65% MAX) IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF FROST.
THE EXIT OF A UPPER-LEVEL CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH
WITH AN UPSTREAM BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA, WILL ESTABLISH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UP AND UP THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S AND 70S SUNDAY, UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY AND THE MID-
TO-UPPER 80S TUESDAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SETUP SUNDAY AMONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST WITH RISING PRESSURE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY WILL HELP SANDWICH IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD
RIDGING PATTERN TRANSITIONS OVER TO A SLOW APPROACHING TROUGH.
THOUGH 20-35% POPS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE WEEK (25-45%) LIE THURSDAY. IT IS ADVISED NOT TO
RAISE ONE'S HOPES QUIET YET ON MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS AS EARLY ON QPF FORECAST KEEP THE AREA MAINLY UNDER
0.25" OF PRECIPITATION (SEVERAL COMPLETELY DRY AREAS TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND WEST). THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
BESIDES THE WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES, STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS
LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY COME AS A SURFACE CYCLONE SWEEPS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL
LOOK TO KNOCK HIGHS OUT OF THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR FRIDAY (UPPER
50S TO MID 60S). DRIER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AND AROUND THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FOR
MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE LARGELY SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER NOON, WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10KTS. AROUND SUNSET, WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED AROUND 10KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY BLOWING BETWEEN 15-25MPH AND GUSTING UP
TO 35MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY HAVE SET UP ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
DESPITE HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS HAVE RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS
LOW AS 12-22%. AS RESULT OF THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FULL AREA UNTIL 8PM.
WHILE WINDS DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LOSS OF ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE,
REMAINING BELOW 40-65% OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED SUNDAY AS LIGHTER WINDS WILL
GENERALLY GUST BELOW 20MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10-20% ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PHILLIPS/SMITH/ROOKS/OSBORNE COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25MPH
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY-FRIDAY DUE TO THE OVERLAP OF LOW
HUMIDITY (10-20% AND BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS AT LEAST 20-30MPH). THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEK SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURE THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL EACH DAY WILL BE WHERE THE
DRIEST CONDITIONS SET UP EACH AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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