391
FXUS63 KGID 192347
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
647 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
(BEYOND A FEW NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA), AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE TO FORM ACROSS MAINLY A FEW LOW-
LYING AREAS TONIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL WORST CONDITIONS LIE MONDAY
AND THURSDAY. PLEASES REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
- HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT KNOCKS HIGHS DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND (UPPER
50S AND 60S).
- A FEW WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-40%) LIE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN COVERAGE (AMOUNTS
<0.25").
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S AND 70S (AROUND 10-15
DEGREES WARMER FROM SATURDAY). DESPITE THE WARMING TODAY,
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY STILL NEAR AND DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
A FEW NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST NIGHT
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW PATCHY
AREAS OF FROST MAY ADDITIONALLY BE POSSIBLE TO FORM TONIGHT GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL WILL BE FOR LOW LYING
AREAS AND FOR AREAS MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHWEST (WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES LIE).
ALOFT, A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE (SINKING
AIR) UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. AS
RESULT, TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL MAINLY REACH THE
MID 70S TO 80S EACH AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON
TUESDAY.
AS FOR AS WINDS GO, HIGHER PRESSURE SLIPPING BY TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY WILL STEER SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MONDAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING DRY
CONDITIONS, WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL WITH A FEW ISOLATED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING WAS FORGONE THIS FORECAST CYCLE, IF CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY
WINDS IN EXCEEDANCE OF 25MPH INCREASES, THE NEXT SHIFT MAY CONSIDER
TO ISSUE. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR THIS WEEK, PLEASES REFER TO THE FORE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RACE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE PROPELLED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SHAKE THINGS UP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS LOOKS LIKELY TO ARISE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORED TO GUST AS HIGH AS 35-40MPH WITH
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH THURSDAY AND NORTHERLY GUSTS
UP TO 25-35MPH FRIDAY. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE POSSIBLE TO RETURN EACH DAY WITH THE BET CONFIDENCE (DRIEST DAY)
ON THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
AS FOR THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE FOR
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE GONE DOWN SOME FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT (10-40% CHANCE) WITH THE BETTER OVERALL POTENTIAL RESIDING
OUTSIDE THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THOUGH MOST PLACES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, A HANDFUL OF PLACES NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE OR EAST OF HWY-281 COULD STILL BE IN LINE
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL NOT ONLY SHIFT THE WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, BUT WILL ALSO PULL IN A
COLDER AIR MASS. HIGHS AS RESULT WILL KNOCK DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
CHANGE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MONDAY:
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S WILL LEAVE MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 10-25%. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE WEST. THOUGH THE RH VALUES FOR
MONDAY WILL FALL WELL INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS (<20%), THERE
IS SOME QUESTION IN WEATHER WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH CRITICAL SPEEDS
(>25 MPH). HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESURE TO THE WEST
WILL LEAVE WIND DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS
OF 10-20MPH MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 25MPH. THE GUSTIEST
WINDS (LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SURPASS 25MPH)
WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE OR SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. IF THE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCEEDANCE OF
25MPH CONTINUES TO INCREASE, A RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.
TUESDAY:
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 80S) WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOW 50S WILL LET AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO
AS LOW AS 10-30% (DRIEST CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST). THOUGH
CRITICAL RH VALUES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA, LIGHTER WINDS (MAINLY GUSTING LESS THAN 20MPH) WILL OVERALL
LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE DAY. A FEW NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET IN ISOLATED PLACES (NOT LIKELY
WIDESPREAD).
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE OVERALL WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30-40MPH WEDNESDAY,
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30MPH THURSDAY AND
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35MPH FRIDAY. THOUGH A FEW DETAILS
CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW WEDNESDAY, THE GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE WELL
STRONG ENOUGH AS IT STANDS TO SUPPORT NEAR-CRIRITCAL AND CRITICAL
FORE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACHIEVES.
TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DROP DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TANK
DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FRIDAY. RH VALUES MAY BE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WEDNESDAY
(18-40%) DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE OVERALL DRIEST CONDITIONS
FOR THE PERIOD AND LIKELY WORST FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO
SETTLE THURSDAY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND ONE LAST DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL AS LOW AS 10-25% THURSDAY. FRIDAY'S CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE SEPARATED AS LOWERING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-30%. THE DRIEST PLACES FRIDAY WILL LIE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PLACES WEST OF HWY-281 WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MET.
REGARDLESS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS, WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRIRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
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