301
FXUS63 KGID 210519
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1219 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MODELS HAVE THIS DRYLINE LOCATED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. QUESTIONS LIE WITH WHETHER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA.
- THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WORKING ITS
WAY THROUGH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL BEING ALONG/JUST
OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR EASTERN FRINGES.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH THE DAY OVERALL GREATEST CONCERN BEING ON
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT A LIMITED AREA
OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (20 PERCENT OR LOWER), THURSDAY HAS
THE MORE WIDESPREAD LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (BUT STILL GUSTY
WINDS).
- PERIODIC DISTURBANCES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FINER DETAILS AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
CURRENTLY...
DRY CONDITIONS AND OVERALL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
REIGN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR
AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, WITH
BROAD RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, SET UP BETWEEN A TROUGH
AXIS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A LARGER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
WE ARE SITTING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH AXIS DRAPED THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS, KEEPING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY. BETWEEN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING AREA-WIDE RED FLAG WARNING, WHICH
RUNS THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
OVERALL, NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORTER TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH REMAINS DRY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST
SHIFTING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHED BY THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST. NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY. A DISTURBANCE SLIDING EAST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH. DOESN'T LOOK TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA, STALLING OUT ROUGHLY HALFWAY
AROUND MIDDAY...BRINGING MORE EASTERLY WINDS TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS SURFACE
TROUGHING GETS MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH/GETS WASHED OUT,
WITH WINDS AREA-WIDE BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST...TOPPING OUT AROUND 15
MPH...THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA MAY BE A BIT MORE BREEZY,
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. THOUGH WARM ONCE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
INCREASING DEWPOINTS NORTH...DIMINISHING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SOME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
MID-WEEK ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TREK EAST,
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE ID/MT/WY BORDER REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, EXPECTING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO
THE 80S...AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES THOSE 40S-50S
DEWPOINTS FURTHER NORTH...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTS OF NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THERE...MAINLY IN NNW AREAS. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARPER SFC DRYLINE, WHICH LOOKS TO EXTEND
THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF NE-KS. INCREASING LIFT OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO SWING SW-NE ONTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPARKING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THAT SFC DRYLINE OFF TO OUR WEST. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS ISN'T THE HIGHEST AT THIS
POINT. OUR LATE DAY-EVENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AROUND 20 PERCENT...SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH
THINGS DEVELOP, GETTING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING
ALOFT, AND MODELS SHOW WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
SOME MODELS KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY DRY, OTHERS CLIP
OUR FAR W-NW AREAS. IF STORMS CAN FORM CLOSER TO OR MOVE INTO
OUR WEST, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME COULD BE STRONG-
MARGINALLY SEVERE. HAVE SOME FINER FORECAST DETAILS TO IRON OUT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FORECAST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
AXIS ITSELF...AND WHILE THOSE CHANCES AREN'T HIGH, THEY ARE
POTENTIALLY TOO BROAD. HAVE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES CONTINUING WED
NIGHT-EARLY THU AM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COULD SEE
THOSE GETTING TRIMMED QUITE A BIT IF RECENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD.
FOR THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH MOST MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW EITHER RIGHT ON OUR
EASTERN EDGE OR JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE THINGS
FIRE. AGAIN...FINER DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT. THURSDAY BRINGS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AS THAT
SURFACE BOUNDARY USHERS IN DRIER DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS SHOWING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA FOR AT LEAST
FRI-SAT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS ISN'T OVERLY
HIGH...SO CHANCES REMAIN IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. SUNDAY'S
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED MORE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INLAND THROUGH SRN CA...AND MODELS ARE CURRENTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS ROUND. WE'LL SEE HOW
THINGS TREND...IT'S ONLY MONDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...FOLLOWING 70S-NEAR 80 ON THURSDAY, HIGHS FALL INTO THE
60S-NEAR 70 FOR FRIDAY, THEN MORE 50S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LLWS AT 1000FT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AND SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS DECREASE.
AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 10KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE JUST
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
TUESDAY...EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S. WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE INCHING
THEIR WAY BACK NORTH, AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID TEENS IN W-NW
AREAS TO THE LOW-MID 30S IN THE SE. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT-TUES AM...STALLING
OUT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING-MIDDAY. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH/WASHES OUT, WITH WINDS
TURNING SSERLY AREA-WIDE. THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
HELPS KEEP WIND SPEEDS DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LOOK TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE AREAS WHERE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE THE LOWEST...IN THE SOUTH
WHERE POTENTIAL IS BETTER FOR GUSTY WINDS, IS WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. GIVEN THIS
OFFSET OF WINDS/RH...NO FORMAL FIRE HEADLINES WERE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS GUSTY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE...WITH SOUTHERLY
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPS AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 80S...BUT MODELS SHOW THAT CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS MORE OF THOSE 40S-50S DEWPOINTS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UP. MAIN
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
ORD-BEAVER CITY NE LINE.
THURSDAY...AGAIN GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, THIS TIME IN
DIFFERING DIRECTIONS AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT WORK
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD SPEEDS SIMILAR TO
WED ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE TURNING TO THE
WNW AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES. THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER DEWPOINTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE AREA (LOW TEENS IN THE WEST). THIS DAY HAS THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS OUR ESE EDGES, DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS (MAY BE MUCH LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...DAVIS
FIRE WEATHER...ADP
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