715
FXUS63 KGID 220548
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1248 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MAINLY NNW PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 12-8PM FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF A GENOA-KEARNEY-BEAVER CITY LINE. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN FOR THURSDAY, AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS QUICKLY BEHIND A PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY IMPACT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING SUNDAY MAY
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. LOT OF
TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS HOWEVER AND SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REIGN TODAY...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING ALOFT...UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGING
SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING
OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ONTO THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA/SOUTHERN OR. AT THE SURFACE, THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SAW MOST SPOTS WITH LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE WINDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IS HELPING TO PULL THAT BOUNDARY NORTHWARD...WITH MORE
ESE TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MORE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL, WITH
MOST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. DO HAVE SPOTS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO/BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHTER (THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL
GUST NEAR 20 MPH), CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVEN'T
BEEN AN ISSUE.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DRY FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING CHANGES WITH THE SURFACE
PATTERN, WE REMAIN EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE,
WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN
SPOTS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT BETTER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SPREADING ACROSS
MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE
MILD, DROPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 30S-LOW 40S).
WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, MODELS HAVEN'T SHOW ANY NOTABLE CHANGES FOR
WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS, THIS TIME WITH STRONGER WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THAT
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND...BECOMING MORE
CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF MT BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MODELS SHOWING A STRENGTHENING DRYLINE EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SD-NE-KS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR
35-40 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR WNW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORECAST CALLING FOR SIMILAR HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR SOME...LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS SSE AREAS,
WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER INTO
THE DAY THAN IN OTHER SPOTS. AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WAS WITH
THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING, FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST
OF A LINE GENOA-KEARNEY-BEAVER CITY, NE. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES...MAINLY WITH DEWPOINTS AND HOW FAR THEY DROP WITH
MIXING THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THINGS
FOR DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THAT AREA...HAVE RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 17-25 PERCENT RANGE, CONFIDENCE IN WINDS IS
HIGHER...THAT NWRN AREA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, THIS SURFACE DRYLINE OFF TO OUR WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE. THE BIG
QUESTIONS FOR OUR AREA LIE IN THE FINER DETAILS...EXACTLY WHERE
DOES THAT DRYLINE INITIALLY SET UP/STRENGTHEN...AND CAN ANY
ACTIVITY MAINTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR CWA. THE
FURTHER WEST THAT BOUNDARY ENDS UP, THE LOWER THE CHANCES OF
IMPACT ON US...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT INCH THINGS
FURTHER EAST...THUS THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINING
OVER OUR FAR WEST. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT...AND WOULD LIKELY BE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AS THAT
MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST. BASED ON SOME MODELS
RECENT TRENDS, FEEL THAT CURRENT FORECAST POPS ARE TOO BROAD IN
NATURE...HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCES ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR KS
COUNTIES. SOME MODELS KEEP US DRY AND FOCUS THINGS JUST OFF TO
THE NORTH.
THURSDAY...
BY THE TIME 12Z THURSDAY ROLLS AROUND...MODELS AREN'T IN TOO BAD
OF AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAVING MOVED
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA...WITH A SSW EXTENDING TROUGH
AXIS INT THE UT/CO BORDER AREA. AT THE SURFACE, MODELS ALSO IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAYTIME- EVENING HOURS...QUESTION NUMBER 1 IS
TIED TO THAT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHT, BUT
IMPORTANT, DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (EVEN RUN TO RUN FOR SOME)
WITH THE TIMING OF THAT PROGRESS...AS WE GET MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, THAT FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOME MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT AT MOST STORMS
AFFECT ROUGHLY THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR...OTHERS HAVE TRENDED MORE
TOWARD/STAYED WITH A EARLIER (MORE LIKE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON),
FURTHER WEST DEVELOPMENT (CLOSER TO HWY 281). IT'LL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND, NOW THAT WE'LL BE GETTING
FURTHER INTO A TIMEFRAME WHERE MORE HI-RES MODELS ARE AVAILABLE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD HAVE MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG...WITH DEEPER LAYER SHEAR OF POTENTIALLY 30-40 KTS. SPC DAY
3 SLIGHT RISK REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF HWY
281. ANY INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS LOOK TO FORM INTO MORE OF A
LINE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ALSO LOOKS TO
MAKE A OVERALL QUICK EXIT TO THE EAST, EVEN THE SLOWEST/WESTERN
MODELS HAVE US CLEAR BY MID-EVENING.
ALONG WITH THE STORM THREAT, THERE IS ALSO A FIRE WEATHER THREAT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
AND INCREASED MIXING, DEWPOINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS-20S.
FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...BUT LIKE THE STORM CHANCES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THAT FRONT. WITH THE
EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS, IT'S LOOKING LIKELY A FIRE HEADLINE WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY...JUST A MATTER OF HOW MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BE INCLUDED.
FRIDAY AND ON...
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...KEEPING SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT STARTS THE WEEKEND OUT IN CA SLIDES
ENE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWING A ROUGHLY 30- 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF 1 INCH MORE, MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE NE- KS STATE
LINE...GEFS IS LOWER. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING
DAYS...BUT THAT WOULD BE SOME VERY WELCOME MOISTURE. SPOTTY
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THINGS THAT FAR OUT.
FOLLOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S-LOW 80S ON THURSDAY...COOLER HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS FRI-SUN GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
FEW TO SCATTERED BASES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERIOD (CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASING AFTER 21Z). WIND DIRECTIONS TODAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO KEEP ABOVE 20KTS ACROSS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 35-40+KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (MAINLY BETWEEN 18-3Z). 35-40KTS OF
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9Z THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...STUMP
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