307
FXUS63 KGID 230751
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
251 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEST-NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
10AM-8PM.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS ALONG A HEBRON-BELOIT LINE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE (40-85%) FRIDAY
NIGHT- MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE OVERALL HIGHEST CHANCES (60-85%)
ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING, GUSTING 25-35MPH AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
AN ORD-COZAD LINE WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, REACHING THE TRI-CITIES AROUND SUNRISE, AND THE HIGHWAY 81
CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS-NOON. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OVERALL, MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE FASTER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION (TIMING AS STATED ABOVE), WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE AREA (ALL 00Z HREF MEMBERS DEVELOP STORMS
25+ MILES EAST OF THE AREA). STILL, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS THE AREA. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE, CAPABLE OF
ALL HAZARDS. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SHORT
AND LIMITED TO FAR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (AREAS
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A HEBRON-BELOIT LINE).
COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE,
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE
EXPECTED, STRONGEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE BREEZY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT 10AM TO 8PM TODAY. WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
WARNING, ESPECIALLY IN COUNTIES BORDERING THE RED FLAG WARNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S, COLDEST ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SIT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. LIGHTER WINDS (GUSTS 20MPH OR LESS) KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS LOW DESPITE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
15-25%. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON
SUNDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.50"-1.00" ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 439 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY (10 AM-8
PM) FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE OUR LAST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, WHICH WOULD BE WELCOMED! PLEASE REFER TO SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ALL FURTHER DISCUSSION ON THIS
TOPIC.
- DECREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING: WHAT A CHANGE 24 HOURS HAS MADE! YESTERDAY, VARIOUS
FORECAST MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF THURSDAY'S COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE...SEEMINGLY BRINGING AT LEAST THE EASTERN ONE-
THIRD TO PERHAPS ONE-HALF OF OUR CWA "UNDER THE GUN" FOR A
SEVERE STORM THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS (AND CONTINUING INTO TODAY) HAVE ABRUPTLY
SPED UP THIS FRONT AGAIN...IN TURN FIRING UP ANY SEVERE STORMS
AT LEAST SLIGHTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ALTOGETHER. OUT OF
AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION, SPC HAS FOR NOW MAINTAINED AN
OFFICIAL SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR A FEW OF OUR FAR EAST-
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK, BUT THEY DID
SHIFT THE WESTERN EDGES OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1) TO
THE EAST OF HWY 281. IN SUMMARY: BARRING A SURPRISING "LAST
MINUTE" SHIFT BACK WEST (UNLIKELY BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE IT
OUT JUST YET), THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN OUR CWA ON
THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH WED. APRIL 29):
-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
OVERALL, TODAY HAS TURNED OUT VERY MUCH AS EXPECTED: WINDY
(SOUTHERLY GUSTS 30-40 MPH WITH SPOTTY 45 MPH) AND WARM, WITH
HIGHS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT MAINLY 80-86 DEGREES. IT'S ALSO
REMAINED RAIN/STORM-FREE.
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THE ONSET OF A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS WE ARE UNDER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CHURNING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. DOWN AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
REALLY TIGHTENED UP ACROSS OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY,
DRIVEN BY A STRONG (ROUGHLY 990 MILLIBAR) LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER EASTERN MT, WHICH HAS IN TURN KICKED UP OUR STOUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
- THIS EVENING (MAINLY PRE-MIDNIGHT):
THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL SURELY REMAIN DRY AND
CONTINUED WINDY/BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH (GUSTS AT LEAST 25-35
MPH EVEN AFTER DARK), AS A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TECHNICALLY, THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR CWA (MAINLY WESTERN
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS) REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR A ROGUE
SEVERE STORM VIA THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK, AND WE ARE
CARRYING SOME LOW-END CHANCES/POPS TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER, HIGH-RES MODELS (HRRR/NAMNEST) STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 25-50
MILES WEST OF OUR CWA ALTOGETHER...WITH STORMS TRACKING MORE
NORTH THAN EAST. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OUR WESTERN FRINGES...JUST IN CASE A NON-ZERO THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DOES MATERIALIZE.
- LATE OVERNIGHT (POST MIDNIGHT):
AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GO BY, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY INVADE OUR CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST...REACHING ROUGHLY
HALFWAY THROUGH BY SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SPEED, WHILE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BREEZES WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
AS FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ODDS STILL FAVOR MOST AREAS
STAYING DRY. THAT BEING SAID, SOME FAIRLY WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (ROOTED MAINLY ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS) COULD SPARK SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA, BUT APPEAR TO
MOSTLY FAVOR COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. THAT BEING SAID,
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY NO HIGHER THAN 20-40%.
AS FOR LOW TEMPS, THEY WILL HOLD UP WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOW
60S MOST PLACES (AIDED IN PART BY A LARGE MASS OF LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR CWA), WITH SOME COOLER LOW-
MID 50S SNEAKING INTO ONLY OUR FAR WEST-NORTHWEST COUNTIES
AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THERE FIRST.
- THURSDAY DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING:
AS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE, THE FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/DRYLINE REPRESENT A FAIRLY BIG CHANGE VERSUS
EXPECTATIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
THE MORNING STARTS WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF OUR CWA, WHILE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER
CENTRAL/WEST. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS
WELL, BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE FAR FROM "SOAKING RAINS". OUT OF
CAUTION AS MUCH AS ANYTHING (AND IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK), WE LINGER SOME SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO OUR
FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING, BUT LATEST HRRR/NAMNEST FOCUS MOST ALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
NOW 25-50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA ALTOGETHER.
IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS: THE POST-FRONTAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES WILL TAKE OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA, GENERALLY SUSTAINED
10-20 MPH/GUSTING 15-30 MPH (HIGHEST WEST/WEAKEST EAST). HIGH
TEMPS WERE CHANGED VERY LITTLE, RANGING MID-UPPER 70S NORTH/WEST
TO LOW 80S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
- THURSDAY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT MIGHT HAVE EXISTED QUICKLY WANE,
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5-10
MPH, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM "TANKING" TOO FAR, BUT STILL
LOWS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN TONIGHT...AIMED FROM MID-
UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTHEAST (VERY LOW CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE FROST FAR NORTHWEST AROUND ORD?...NOT CURRENTLY IN
OFFICIAL FORECAST).
- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY-EARLY EVENING LOOKS DRY AS BREEZES
SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EASTERLY. HIGH TEMPS AIMED 60S
NORTH TO LOW-70S SOUTH. HOWEVER, ALREADY BY EARLY EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW-END RAIN/WEAK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...MAINLY TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES PER LATEST MODEL DATA.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
WHILE NOT A NON-STOP RAIN SITUATION BY ANY MEANS, THIS WILL BE
AN OVERALL-ACTIVE FEW DAYS AS ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES/INVADES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES/POPS ARE AT LEAST NO HIGHER
THAN 50% FOR SATURDAY, THEY STILL MIGHT BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER,
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER-CONFIDENCE CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY-
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN WAVE...DURING WHICH TIME MUCH OF OUR
AREA COULD PICK UP AT LEAST 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH FAR TOO
EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS, AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY
NEED MONITORED FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT MAINLY
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO MAINLY BE AN ELEVATED
STORM THREAT (MEANING MAINLY HAIL). HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS AIMED
MAINLY 60S, WITH LOWS MAINLY UPPER 30S-40S.
- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
VARIOUS, INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWER AND MAINLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, AS OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL
(WEST-EAST) BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LEAN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO LATELY), WITH HIGHS AIMED
MAINLY UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S...AND LOWS MAINLY MID 30S-MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT SWEEPS BY BETWEEN 10-13Z. VFR CEILINGS
WILL THEN TAKE BACK OVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD (AFTER
12/13Z). A FEW SCATTERED STORMS MAY APPROACH THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 9-13Z. THESE SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE IN AND OUT OF
THE AREA, LIKELY ONLY BRINGING BRIEF AVIATION IMPACTS (SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY OR BRIEF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE).
AS FAR AS THE WINDS GO, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35KTS TONIGHT WILL ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTWARDS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLDS FRONT (SOMETIME BETWEEN 9-13Z). WINDS
ACROSS THE DAYTIME FRIDAY WILL BLOW BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH GUST
OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 25KTS. WINDS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ORIENTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 439 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE TRI-CITIES AROUND SUNRISE, AND THE
HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE EXPECTED, STRONGEST WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10-20%. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ALONG A
PHILLIPSBURG-GRAND ISLAND-GREELY LINE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT 10AM-8PM TODAY FOR THOSE AREAS. AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
COUNTIES BORDERING THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. A POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF THE WARNING FURTHER EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF BREEZY
WINDS SHIFT FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ005.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
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