840
FXUS63 KGID 240702
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
202 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY
PORTIONS OF VALLEY AND DAWSON COUNTIES.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY DAWSON, GOSPER, AND FURNAS COUNTIES.
- MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- THE HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (70% TO AROUND 95%) WILL BE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO THE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE 30S AND
40S OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF VALLEY AND DAWSON COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING, LIGHT WINDS, AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER AIR MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
(MAINLY IN DAWSON, GOSPER, AND FURNAS COUNTIES) DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
INCREASING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP (15% TO AROUND 60%
CHANCE) WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST AND NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES
AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER
40S.
A COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (UP TO 70% TO
85%) IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY (70% TO AROUND 95%) AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME
STORMS MAY AGAIN BECOME SEVERE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CAPE AND WIND SHEAR;
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES DECREASE ON MONDAY BUT REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE 50S TO THE 70S).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- REALLY NO BIG CHANGES OF NOTE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
- GENERAL COMMENTS ON WEEKEND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL: BY FAR OUR
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS WILL BE ASSESSING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY SATURDAY
AND/OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENINGS. ONE OF THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVES IF (AND IF SO) HOW FAR NORTH A SURFACE
WARM FRONT MIGHT LIFT INTO OUR AREA. ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY,
IT APPEARS THE MAIN WARM SECTOR/INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD FOCUS
SOUTH OF OUR CWA, KEEPING ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT IN OUR
CWA MORE ALONG THE LINES OF ELEVATED HAIL STORMS. SUNDAY IS
OBVIOUSLY LESS-CLEAR (AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON WHAT
HAPPENS SATURDAY NIGHT), BUT THE WARM FRONT MIGHT TRY LIFTING
NORTH INTO OUR CWA, PERHAPS RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT-
GREATER/MORE SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORM THREAT. LIKE SATURDAY
THOUGH, ANY HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT APPEARS IT SHOULD IN
THEORY FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CWA. PLENTY OF DETAILS
STILL TO SORT OUT, BUT AT LEAST AT THIS DAY 3-4 RANGE, IT'S
PROBABLE THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WE DO SEE SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA (COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 AND DOWN
INTO NORTHERN KS).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH THURS. APRIL
30):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
ALTHOUGH IT WAS A VERY CLOSE CALL (SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED
WITHIN 10-15 MILES OF OUR EXTREME EASTERN CWA), AS HAS BEEN
EXPECTED HERE FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS NOW, THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
AXIS OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FIRED UP SLIGHTLY
EAST-THROUGH-SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA...WITH NUMEROUS WARNINGS
ISSUED/ONGOING WITHIN SOUTHEAST NE/WESTERN IA...AND PROBABLY
SOON TO BE EASTERN KS. MEANWHILE, BACK HERE IN OUR AREA, THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE UNSURPRISINGLY PACKED A LITTLE MORE PUNCH
THAN EXPECTED IN TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS (GUSTS COMMONLY 25-35 MPH
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST) AND ALSO VERY LOW DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH). FORTUNATELY AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE NOT AWARE
OF ANY WILDFIRE STARTS IN OUR CWA, BUT A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT CWA-WIDE THROUGH 9 PM (SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE).
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF DISTURBANCE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW
SPIRALING OVER MONTANA NORTHWARD INTO CANADA IS PASSING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH IN CONCERT WITH THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE HAS FIRED UP THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE STORMS TO OUR EAST.
UNDER A VARIED MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (ANY
CLOUDS OF THE MID-HIGH LEVEL VARIETY), HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT 76-83 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA (IF
ANYTHING JUST A TOUCH WARMER THAN FORECAST).
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
OUR CWA REMAINS DRY, WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS MOVING EVER-FARTHER
AWAY TO OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST, AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR CHILLY
RAIN/SNOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG THE NE/SD
BORDER. SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
PARTLY CLOUDY, BUT TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE, BREEZES WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS
THEY TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT (GUSTS STILL 25-30+
MPH LIKELY UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT). HOWEVER, LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AM, NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TO NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH. LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED FROM MID 30S FAR NORTH/WEST-
CENTRAL (MAINLY GOSPER/DAWSON UP THROUGH VALLEY/GREELEY
COUNTIES), WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT UPPER 30S-LOW 40S. IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDEST AREAS
NORTH/WEST, SOME PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND THIS HAS
BEEN ADDED TO OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, WITH ANY FROST EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND DURATION, OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL ADVISORY.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
AT LEAST 7 PM, WITH SUNNY SKIES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO SOME
CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE, THE DAY STARTS WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
MPH, THEN A PERIOD OF VARIABLE DIRECTION AROUND MID-DAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SLIPS THROUGH, THEN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE STRONGEST BREEZES WITH GUSTS 20+ MPH SHOULD FOCUS
WITHIN OUR SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OR SO (NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER POSSIBLE). HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES,
NOW AIMED 70-75 MOST PLACES, AND ANY COOLER UPPER 60S MAINLY IN
OUR EXTREME NORTH.
- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
WHILE MOST OF OUR CWA MOST LIKELY STAYS DRY, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA STANDS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
SEEING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FIRST IN A PARADE OF SEVERAL WEEKEND UPPER WAVES MOVES
IN. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/SPOTTY
PRECIP SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 3-6 DEGREES MILDER THAN
TONIGHT, WITH OUR LATEST FORECAST CALLING FOR LOW-UPPER 40S MOST
AREAS.
- SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT:
IT'S STILL A TOUCH EARLY TO START DOING A "DEEP DIVE" INTO THE
DETAILS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL (SEE PARAGRAPH ABOVE IN THE
"BIG PICTURE" SECTION FOR SOME GENERAL STUFF), BUT THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT THESE 48 HOURS LOOK TO BE RELATIVE ACTIVE IN TERMS
OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN PERSISTENT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY DAYTIME INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE BOTH DAYS/NIGHTS WILL SURELY FEATURE SOME RAIN AND
STORM POTENTIAL (AGAIN ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WOULD MAINLY
FAVOR OUR SOUTH HALF), SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURE THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN
(WIDESPREAD 80-90+%) PER OUR LATEST FORECAST. GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION THAT OUR CWA SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE MAIN
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR SOUTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO REACH MAINLY MID 50S-MID-60S SATURDAY, AND LOW-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDS ON "EXACT" FRONTAL
POSITION, HOW STUCK WE ARE UNDER LOWER CLOUDS ETC. AS EARLIER
STATED, THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MOST OF OUR CWA
TO PICK UP AT LEAST 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN...HOPEFULLY THIS TREND
CONTINUES.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
WHILE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN OUR FORECAST, THIS MAINLY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY TIME FRAME (AT LEAST BEYOND MONDAY AM), AS THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM PASSES OFF TO OUR EAST. FOR SURE, CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY DEPARTS OUR REGION, ENDING ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM
THREAT FROM THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLY-
COOL...MAINLY AIMED 60S BOTH DAYS.
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINY AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT THERE ARE
HINTS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (AT LEAST OF THE SCATTERED
VARIETY) AS A FEW DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN INTO OUR REGION OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST (LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME). CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND ANY
ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS FAIRLY MEAGER. HIGH TEMPS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED MAINLY MID-UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
ONLY NEAR-60 ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS THE PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FILING IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS, CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTH
TONIGHT, WILL VERY SOON LIGHTEN AND BECOME VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME,
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE WITH DIRECTION LATER
SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS FRIDAY EVENING MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- REST OF TODAY-EARLY EVENING:
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA),
AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED ONE HOUR LONGER INTO THE EVENING...NOW
UNTIL 9 PM. AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN DEEPLY-MIXED, POST-FRONTAL
REGIMES, WIND SPEEDS HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY "OVERACHIEVED"
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY
AT LEAST 15-25 MPH/GUSTS CONSISTENTLY 25-35 MPH OUT OF THE
WESET-NORTHWEST. THE OVERALL-STRONGEST WINDS HAVE FOCUSED WITHIN
THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA, BUT EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST
AREAS WILL SEE SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. AS FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH), IT HAS EASILY DROPPED BELOW OUR CRITICAL
CRITERIA, WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA REPORTING 10-15 %
(LOCALIZED LOWER). ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 7-9 PM, WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY (VERSUS WESTERLY), ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR NEBRASKA
FORECAST AREA.
- FRIDAY:
ALTHOUGH OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF OUR CWA
APPEARS IT WILL EXPERIENCE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST 20
MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AT LEAST 20-25 PERCENT.
- BEYOND FRIDAY:
SOME GOOD NEWS ON THE FIRE WEATHER FRONT! ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY "IN THE CLEAR" FOR THE SPRING SEASON, IT APPEARS WE
CATCH AT LEAST A SEVERAL-DAYS BREAK FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A VARIED COMBINATION OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES, HIGHER DEWPOINTS/RH (ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND),
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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