382
FXUS63 KGID 242314
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE STRETCHES OF WEATHER WE'VE SEEN THUS
FAR THIS SPRING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 1 TO 2) RISK ON SATURDAY, WITH A
POTENTIALLY GREATER RISK (UP TO LEVEL 3, ENHANCED) POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS COMES WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
- IN AGGREGATE, THESE VARIOUS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LEAD TO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY AM. LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MOST PLACES SHOULD
RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.50", AND THERE'S CERTAINLY A CHANCE THAT
SWATHS OF THE AREA COULD GET 1-1.5", OR MORE, BY MONDAY AM.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
TO THE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VAST MAJORITY OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE NEXT FEW
DAYS SINCE THAT'S WHERE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AND LEADING TO VERY
NICE CONDITIONS (BONUS POINTS FOR BEING A FRIDAY!) FEATURING
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E/SE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING SERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS ALREADY
NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS JUST TO OUR W AND THERE REMAINS A SMALL
WINDOW FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS W OF
HWY 183 WHERE THE INCREASING WINDS OVERLAP WITH SLOWLY RISING,
BUT STILL SUB-30%, RHS BETWEEN AROUND 5-9PM. MOST OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THOUGH HELD ONTO SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
W/NW NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL MAKE GRADUAL NW TO SE PROGRESSION ON SATURDAY,
BUT THEN LIKELY STALL OUT AT SOME POINT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW DEEPENS ALONG NW KS/SW NE BORDER AREA. EXACTLY WHERE
THIS STALL OCCURS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...AND IT WILL HAVE A
HUGE AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR A GIVEN LOCATION. AREAS
FROM AROUND LEXINGTON TO ORD MAY REMAIN STUCK IN CLOUDS AND
CHILLY N WIND ALL DAY AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S TO 50S...
WHEREAS OSBORNE TO GENEVA AREA COULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S
AMIDST BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND WARM/MOIST SRLY FLOW. THE HEART
OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES, COULD HAVE
SENSIBLE WEATHER THAT'S JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AGREE
WITH RECENT HI-RES DATA THAT SHOWS ISO-SCAT SHWRS/WEAK STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SAT AM, WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN
INTENSITY TOWARDS MIDDAY. QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH OF AN
INCREASE WE SEE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB ZONES, GIVEN SOMEWHAT
LACKLUSTER HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WHILE NOT A TEXTBOOK CASE BY
ANY MEANS, WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NE GIVEN PROXIMITY TO POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND DECENT 0-3KM CAPE THAT OVERLAPS STRONG AMBIENT LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT. SOMETIMES
THIS CAN SUPPORT RAPID LOW LEVEL STRETCHING AND WEAK TORNADOES.
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE NEW
DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF EXISTING CONVECTION INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN VICINITY OF A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TRIPLE POINT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE AREAS COULD
SUPPORT GREATER INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH, AND
FAVORABLY ORIENTED RELATIVE TO DRY LINE, TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. HAVE INCREASED HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL IN MESSAGING
UP TO AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE GIVEN POTENTIAL STORM MODE, STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND LARGE CHUNK OF THE CAPE BEING WITHIN
FAVORED HAIL GROWTH ZONE. MODEL UH TRACKS SUPPORT A HARD RIGHT
TURN AND A POTENTIAL INCREASE TO ALREADY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE
SUPERCELLS. APPEARS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST
TORNADO THREAT COULD BE MARGINAL BL MOISTURE AS TDS REMAIN IN
THE 50S. OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KS MAY BE LESS THAN FURTHER NORTH, BUT THIS WOULD ALLOW
WHAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE MORE INTENSE. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE
AREA TO THE SE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO EVEN BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY. WILL START OFF BY SAYING THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE HIGH AND APPEARS THAT INCREASING ELEVATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY AM COULD THROW A SIGNIFICANT WRENCH INTO
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. ALSO, THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS APPEARS A BIT LATE FOR OPTIMAL OVERLAP WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING - SUGGESTING MAYBE THE TRADITIONAL LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
FAIRLY QUIET LOCALLY AND FOCUSED FURTHER S/SE INTO AXIS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY. REALLY IT WILL JUST DEPEND ON HOW
WIDESPREAD AM ELEVATED CONVECTION IS AND WHERE ANY POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SET UP. MY PERSONAL
EXPERIENCE IS THAT MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, EARLY DAY CONVECTION IS
MORE DETRIMENTAL TO SEVERE AFTN/EVE STORMS THAN WHAT MODELS
SUGGEST...ESPECIALLY IN LATE APRIL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PRETTY STRONG SAT NIGHT-SUN AM WITH A
VEERING LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH A COUPLED UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD
BE A PRETTY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME WIDESPREAD, MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT, AS WELL. IF
THIS ACTIVITY DOESN'T CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
(AS THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS), THEN THE WINDOW TO RECOVER WOULD JUST
BE TOO SMALL (IN TIME AND SPACE) TO RECOVER. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE "MAIN SHOW" WOULD BE ALONG AND S OF I-70.
UNDER THIS SCENARIO, SOME OF OUR HIGHEST SEVERE CHANCES MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHWARD SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
ON A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. OBVIOUSLY, A LATE NIGHT TROUGH
PASSAGE ISN'T OPTIMAL FOR ROBUST SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS,
BUT SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL COULD CERTAINLY BE
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS COULD PERHAPS COINCIDE WITH
ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION FROM THE W THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND GREW UPSCALE INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
AGAIN...JUST A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL SCENARIOS AND
EVEN WITH THE LARGE COVERAGE OF THE ENHANCED RISK, DON'T WANT
PEOPLE TO THINK SUNDAY IS A FORGONE CONCLUSION OF A CLASSIC
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK *FOR OUR AREA*. IT STILL
COULD BE, BUT I THINK THE PATTERN/TIMING LENDS ITSELF TO ONE
WHERE THE GREATEST STRONG TORNADO THREAT LIES ALONG/S OF I-70.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT DETAILS...THINK WE'RE LOOKING AT THREE SOLID
CHANCES FOR RAIN BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AM. FEEL
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE IN SAYING THAT MOST PEOPLE SHOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OVER THE WEEKEND, AND LET'S HOPE THAT AT LEAST
ONE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIALS (SAT NIGHT OR SUN
NIGHT) PANS OUT SUCH THAT SWATHS OF 1-1.5"+ ALSO OCCUR.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS SEASONABLY COOL WITH OFF AND ON RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LLWS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE 05-10Z TIMEFRAME TONIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING,
THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED TO ARRIVE IN THE
15-16Z TIMEFRAME ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN ARRIVE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...MANGELS
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