848
FXUS63 KGID 252351
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
651 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF HASTINGS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- AFTER A LULL IN STORMS TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MAYBE EVEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A POSSIBLITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SPECIFIC TIMING, COVERAGE, AND MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE
THREATS REMAIN. KANSAS MORE FAVORED FOR SEVERE THAN NEBRASKA.
- THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS DUE TO
CHILLY LOWS IN THE 30S (AT LEAST) EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A SHARP FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY BISECTING THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NW SIDE ACTUALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S...WHEREAS AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS SERVING AS
A FOCUS FOR STRONG THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
EXPECT THIS THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING, MAINLY
FOR AREAS E AND S OF HASTINGS. INSTABILITY FALLS OFF RATHER
QUICKLY N OF HWY 6 E OF HASTINGS, SO WHILE A STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL TO MAYBE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (0.5-1." IN DIAMETER)
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE S OF HWY 6
AND NEAR/E OF HWY 281 WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS HAVE DESTABILIZED
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN A POCKET OF RECENT CLEARING, AS EVIDENT BY
HJH SHOOTING UP TO 75F DEGREES. THIS IS SUPPORTING AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, WHICH COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT, IS MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, BUT NOT CRAZY
STEEP, SO THINK QUARTER TO PERHAPS GOLF BALL HAIL IS THE MAIN
THREAT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY
RFDS AS WELL AS A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY AND
AMPLE 0-3KM CAPE. EXPECT MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E/SE BY AROUND 8-9PM, LEAVING
DAMP & DREARY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME DENSE FOG POTENTIAL LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE E (UPSLOPE) AMIDST
ALREADY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT OVER BY TODAY'S RAIN.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT ROUND OF COVECTION AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS STILL REMAIN
QUITE VARIED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE DAY ULTIMATELY PAN'S
OUT, SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND
TIMING OF INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND HOW THAT IMPACTS DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL LATER
ON IN THE DAY. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT TOO MUCH STOCK
INTO ONE SINGLE MODEL, BUT GENERAL TRENDS ON THE LAST TWO RUNS
OF THE HREF SUGGEST A CONSENSUS MAY BE FORMING. IT ROUGHLY
SUPPORTS THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR IN THAT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FROM SW NEBRASKA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THAT THEN SHIFTS
NE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BULK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS
ROUND COULD HAVE A NON-ZERO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH IT
PARTICULARLY ON THE S/SE FLANK AND AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS
EXPERIENCING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH LARGE HAIL AGAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FIRST ROUND WILL BE
ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL TO FINE TUNING THE SEVERE THREAT BOTH DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS DURING THE EVENING
AND/OR OVERNIGHT.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...APPEARS A SECOND ROUND MAY DEVELOP W/SW OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
THEN QUICKLY MOVE E/NE DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS THE ROUND THE SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
REALLY PEGS AS THE POTENTIAL HIGH-END SEVERE THREAT. NOW...WILL
THIS ACTUALLY BE FOR OUR AREA (MAINLY KS ZONES), OR WILL THE
MAIN THREAT REMAIN JUST SW/S OF THE AREA DUE TO STABILIZING
EFFECTS FROM THE FIRST ROUND? THAT'S THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS
POINT. CONCEPTUALLY SPEAKING AND FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE THESE
SETUP'S USUAL FAVOR MORE S THAN N THAN WHAT ONE THINKS 24+ HOURS
OUT...BUT IF THE MORNING ACTIVITY ISN'T VERY WIDESPREAD OR
INTENSE, THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT COULD TREND FURTHER N.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP, STORMS ALONG IT WILL
BE PERFECTLY SITUATED IN A VOLITLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, AND THE STRONGEST FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS MAY LAG JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPEAD COVERAGE - THUS LEADING TO
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. AFTER
03Z, WOULD EXPECT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINES AND/OR CLUSTERS
AS FORCING INCREASES ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS SUCH, A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT (MAYBE A BRIEF TORNADO)
COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AGAIN FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/S OF THE STATE LINE THE MOST.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT E/NE ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER AREA ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE A SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME, ESP. FOR AREAS N/NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. MONDAY WILL
NOT REALLY BE ANY MORE PLEASANT THAN THE WEEKEND GIVEN
INCREASINGLY STRONG NW WINDS AND CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND NEARLY NIGHTLY FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY, NW ZONES WILL BE AT MOST
RISK FOR ACTUAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES, BUT FROSTY CONDITIONS
COULD EASILY SPREAD IN THE THE TRI-CITIES, ESP. WED & FRI AMS
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
TONIGHT: MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS SLIDE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AROUND GRI FOR ANOTHER
HOUR, OR SO. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY, BUT EXPECT
ONGOING IFR CIGS TO PERSIST AND EVEN LOWER FURTHER TO LIFR BY
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
AND VSBY RISTRICTIONS. THERE'S ARGUEMENTS FOR AND AGAINST DENSE
FOG, SO HEDGED IN BETWEEN AND LOWERED BOTH SITES TO IFR
BEGINNING AROUND 08Z, BUT DIDN'T PUT THE VSBYS GOING QUITE AS
LOW AS RECENT HRRR RUNS SHOW. EXPECT SOME AMENDMENTS AS TRENDS
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NNE-NE, AVERAGING
AROUND 10-15KT. CONFIDENCE: WIND/CIGS - HIGH, VSBYS- LOW.
SUNDAY: LIFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, AND
MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO SHAKE THE IFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VSBYS LOOK TO START THE DAY IFR, BUT POSSIBLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE FROM THE W TOWARDS LATE SUN AM, AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE STRONG WITH SOME
SMALL HAIL, ESP. FOR GRI. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ARRIVE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NE TO ESE AND
REMAIN BETWEEN 8-12KT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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