052
FXUS63 KGID 260634
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
134 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY GET AS LOW AS A HALF MILE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE AND WHEN
STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
- THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH, AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS HAVING THE HIGHEST
RISK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT FOG IS DEVELOPING DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 50S. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP) FROM
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION TODAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN MORE THAN 1 ROUND THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AS TO
WHERE AND WHEN THESE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS
A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH
CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S
DAY 1 OUTLOOK WITH THE HIGHEST RISK TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THERE IS A CHANCE (20% - 30%) WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO
THE LOW 70S. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT (UP TO A 85% TO 90%
CHANCE). LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND
50S.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE VARIOUS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RISK OF FROST
AND FREEZE DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME AREAS AT RISK FOR
FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A SHARP FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY BISECTING THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE NW SIDE ACTUALLY FALLING INTO THE
40S...WHEREAS AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS SERVING AS
A FOCUS FOR STRONG THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
EXPECT THIS THREAT TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING, MAINLY
FOR AREAS E AND S OF HASTINGS. INSTABILITY FALLS OFF RATHER
QUICKLY N OF HWY 6 E OF HASTINGS, SO WHILE A STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL TO MAYBE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (0.5-1." IN DIAMETER)
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, AND PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE S OF HWY 6
AND NEAR/E OF HWY 281 WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS HAVE DESTABILIZED
CONSIDERABLY MORE IN A POCKET OF RECENT CLEARING, AS EVIDENT BY
HJH SHOOTING UP TO 75F DEGREES. THIS IS SUPPORTING AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE, WHICH COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KT, IS MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, BUT NOT CRAZY
STEEP, SO THINK QUARTER TO PERHAPS GOLF BALL HAIL IS THE MAIN
THREAT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY
RFDS AS WELL AS A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY AND
AMPLE 0-3KM CAPE. EXPECT MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO THE E/SE BY AROUND 8-9PM, LEAVING
DAMP & DREARY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME DENSE FOG POTENTIAL LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE E (UPSLOPE) AMIDST
ALREADY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT OVER BY TODAY'S RAIN.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO OUR NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS STILL REMAIN
QUITE VARIED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE DAY ULTIMATELY PAN'S
OUT, SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND
TIMING OF INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND HOW THAT IMPACTS DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL LATER
ON IN THE DAY. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT TOO MUCH STOCK
INTO ONE SINGLE MODEL, BUT GENERAL TRENDS ON THE LAST TWO RUNS
OF THE HREF SUGGEST A CONSENSUS MAY BE FORMING. IT ROUGHLY
SUPPORTS THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR IN THAT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FROM SW NEBRASKA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THAT THEN SHIFTS
NE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BULK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS
ROUND COULD HAVE A NON-ZERO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH IT
PARTICULARLY ON THE S/SE FLANK AND AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AREAS
EXPERIENCING SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH LARGE HAIL AGAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FIRST ROUND WILL BE
ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL TO FINE TUNING THE SEVERE THREAT BOTH DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS DURING THE EVENING
AND/OR OVERNIGHT.
SPEAKING OF WHICH...APPEARS A SECOND ROUND MAY DEVELOP W/SW OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
THEN QUICKLY MOVE E/NE DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS THE ROUND THE SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
REALLY PEGS AS THE POTENTIAL HIGH-END SEVERE THREAT. NOW...WILL
THIS ACTUALLY BE FOR OUR AREA (MAINLY KS ZONES), OR WILL THE
MAIN THREAT REMAIN JUST SW/S OF THE AREA DUE TO STABILIZING
EFFECTS FROM THE FIRST ROUND? THAT'S THE BIG QUESTION AT THIS
POINT. CONCEPTUALLY SPEAKING AND FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE THESE
SETUP'S USUAL FAVOR MORE S THAN N THAN WHAT ONE THINKS 24+ HOURS
OUT...BUT IF THE MORNING ACTIVITY ISN'T VERY WIDESPREAD OR
INTENSE, THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT COULD TREND FURTHER N.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP, STORMS ALONG IT WILL
BE PERFECTLY SITUATED IN A VOLATILE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, AND THE STRONGEST FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS MAY LAG JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE - THUS LEADING TO
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. AFTER
03Z, WOULD EXPECT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINES AND/OR CLUSTERS
AS FORCING INCREASES ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS SUCH, A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT (MAYBE A BRIEF TORNADO)
COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AGAIN FAVORING AREAS
ALONG/S OF THE STATE LINE THE MOST.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT E/NE ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER AREA ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE A SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME, ESP. FOR AREAS N/NE OF THE TRI-CITIES. MONDAY WILL
NOT REALLY BE ANY MORE PLEASANT THAN THE WEEKEND GIVEN
INCREASINGLY STRONG NW WINDS AND CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND NEARLY NIGHTLY FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY, NW ZONES WILL BE AT MOST
RISK FOR ACTUAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES, BUT FROSTY CONDITIONS
COULD EASILY SPREAD IN THE THE TRI-CITIES, ESP. WED & FRI AMS
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF FOG/MIST THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE, EVENTUALLY BEING REPLACED BY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR A FEW T-STORMS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY FOLLOWED BY A DRY BREAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED IN
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NNE WINDS TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AND TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...MANGELS
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