994
FXUS63 KGID 261815
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
115 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DWINDLING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT, ESP. FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS MAY STILL
BE UNDER SOME SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT, BUT EVEN THIS IS
TRENDING LOWER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY AM, MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 281. STILL APPEARS
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY WILL BE E OF THE LOCAL AREA.
- WILL UPDATE KEY MESSAGES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
BOTTOM LINE REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT IS
THAT IS DECREASING QUITE A BIT. CAN'T SAY WITH CERTAINTY THAT
THERE WON'T STILL BE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER MAINLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT EVEN THIS IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY OWING TO LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY.
ROUND ONE OF TODAY'S POTENTIAL IS MOVING THROUGH NOW, AND IT'S
REALLY STRUGGLING TO BE MUCH MORE THAN JUST GARDEN VARIETY
SHOWERS. EVEN LIGHTNING IS PRETTY LIMITED N OF THE STATE LINE. A
VIGOROUS ELEVATED SUPERCELL IS NEAR/E OF SALINA, WHICH IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL I THOUGH'T COULD SNEAK INTO OUR
FAR SE...BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS JUST TOO STABLE AND
STUBBORN TO ALLOW FOR A NORTHWARD SURGE OF INSTABILITY.
SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE, THOUGH, GIVEN WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S! IN FACT, CHILLY 40S AND 50S AMIDST
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY THROUGH W KS AND
INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WHICH CASTS SERIOUS DOUBT ON OUR
SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WITH THE NEWARD EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH.
STILL THINK WE'LL SEE A NICE LULL IN EVEN THE SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CURRENT
WAVE. IT WILL REMAIN VERY DREARY AND CHILLY THOUGH WITH NO
IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO INCREASE AND HELP SCATTER OUT
THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS. TIMING FOR THE NEXT ROUND LOOKS TO BE
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AM. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, FORCING AND SHEAR/KINEMATICS WILL BE THERE FOR SEVERE
STORMS, BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS KEEP ANY MUCAPE >1000 J/KG SOUTH OF
THE NE/KS STATE LINE...AND THE NOSE OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
(>2000 J/KG) MUCAPE CLOSER TO I-70. MY GUT TELLS ME AREAS FROM
AROUND STOCKTON TO HEBRON S AND E STILL HAVE A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ROUND...BUT PROBABLY ONLY A
HAIL THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE BELOIT AREA SHOW A VERY
STABLE LOWEST 4K FT, WITH MOST/ALL OF THE CAPE INCREASE NOTED IN
THE 4-6K FT LAYER. THIS WOULD MAKE TORNADOGENESIS AND EVEN
DAMAGING WINDS VERY DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. A STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL HELP FEED THE UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/STRENGTH LATE
TONIGHT, AND APPEARS IT WILL VEER E OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
(PROBABLY EVEN BY 09Z). OFF AND ON SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION
COULD PERSIST FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE PRIMARY CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...BUT
IN MY EXPERIENCE, SUCH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SUCH COLD/STABLE
CONDITIONS LOCALLY AND IN THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. SOME HAIL THREAT FROM
ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS UNTIL THE ENTIRE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH,
BUT FINDING IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO MESSAGE ANY SORT OF
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WILL UPDATE THIS SECTION FURTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT/FORECAST:
THERE CONTINUE TO BE VARIOUS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RISK OF FROST
AND FREEZE DEVELOPING. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME AREAS AT RISK FOR
FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POTENTIALLY AS
LOW AS IFR.
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE TERMINALS HAS BECOME VERY LOW
TODAY, AND IS DECREASING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS WELL. WILL
STILL SEE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PULLED THE LIGHTNING OUT
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MAY SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY RETURN FOR STORMS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON AM, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD IN WHICH THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND
SCATTER AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
VSBYS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO
IFR. THE GREATEST RISK FOR IFR VSBYS WILL BE FROM AROUND SUNSET
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARDS 09Z-10Z. OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE
MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE E REST OF TODAY, THEN BEC LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WIND WILL TURN TO THE NW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AND
BECOME BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MON AM. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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