535
FXUS63 KGID 270658
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
158 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTIL 4 AM THIS MORNING.
- FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. DENSE FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE PRESENT
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (AROUND 70%)
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IS CURRENTLY IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 4 AM.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL
STAY AROUND AND HOW DENSE IT WILL GET. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING SOMEWHAT BUT VISIBILITIES COULD GO DOWN
AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 50S. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30+ MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S. RAIN SHOWERS MAY
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT (15% TO 50% CHANCE). WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO ORD MAY
DROP TO AROUND 33 TO 31 DEGREES. THIS COOLING MAY BE HINDERED BY
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE (AROUND
70%) OF NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
EXPERIENCING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE REMAINING
AREAS WILL BE AT RISK FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
BOTTOM LINE REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT IS
THAT IS DECREASING QUITE A BIT. CAN'T SAY WITH CERTAINTY THAT
THERE WON'T STILL BE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER MAINLY
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT EVEN THIS IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY OWING TO LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY.
EXPECT A NICE LULL REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EARLIER WAVE. IT WILL REMAIN
VERY DREARY AND CHILLY THOUGH WITH NO IMPETUS FOR LOW LEVEL
MIXING TO INCREASE AND HELP SCATTER OUT THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS.
TIMING FOR THE NEXT ROUND LOOKS TO BE AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AM. FORCING AND SHEAR/KINEMATICS WILL BE
THERE FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT LATEST HRRR RUNS KEEP ANY MUCAPE
>1000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE...AND THE NOSE OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL (>2000 J/KG) MUCAPE CLOSER TO I-70. MY GUT
TELLS ME AREAS FROM AROUND STOCKTON TO HEBRON S AND E STILL HAVE
A NON- ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ROUND...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY A HAIL THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE BELOIT
AREA SHOW A VERY STABLE LOWEST 4K FT, WITH MOST/ALL OF THE CAPE
INCREASE NOTED IN THE 4-7K FT LAYER. THIS WOULD MAKE
TORNADOGENESIS AND EVEN DAMAGING WINDS VERY DIFFICULT TO
ACHIEVE. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL HELP FEED THE UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT, AND APPEARS IT WILL
VEER E OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE (PROBABLY EVEN BY 09Z). OFF AND ON
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD PERSIST FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE PRIMARY CORE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...BUT
IN MY EXPERIENCE, SUCH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SUCH COLD/STABLE
CONDITIONS LOCALLY AND IN THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. SOME HAIL THREAT FROM
ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS UNTIL THE ENTIRE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH,
BUT FINDING IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO MESSAGE ANY SORT OF
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS.
MAY NEED TO ADD SOME ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NORTHERN AREAS. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
SOME DECENT CU/STRATOCU.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(PROBABLY MOSTLY RAIN, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WET SNOW) MOVING IN
FROM THE W MONDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL KEEP
HIGHS COOL IN THE 50S. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY FOR THE
TRI-CITIES, NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, EVEN BELOIT/HEBRON COULD
FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND SUPPORT FROST FORMATION.
ADDITIONAL OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT HAVEN'T SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING INTO THE
SPECIFICS. EVEN WITHOUT THE SHOWERS, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN COOL FOR
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S/30S. AT LEAST PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/WIND
DETAILS THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT. JUST KEEP
THAT IN MIND IN CASE YOU HAVE PLANTED YOUR GARDENS AND POTS
ALREADY. HOPEFULLY, WE CAN GET BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE 70S NEXT
WEEKEND. FINGERS CROSSED...NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD ALSO BE DRY AND
JUST OVERALL MORE PLEASANT THAN THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA OFF AND
ON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO AT LEAST IFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MID AFTERNOON
BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AGAIN BY 04Z TUESDAY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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