626
FXUS63 KGID 272137
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
437 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STARTING VERY LATE TONIGHT, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT).
- FROST AND/OR SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL COME INTO
PLAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS (POTENTIALLY MOST?) OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (CWA), ESPECIALLY LATE TUES NIGHT-WED AM AND THEN AGAIN
THURS NIGHT-FRI AM AND FRI NIGHT-SAT AM. STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, SO NO FORMAL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS OUT
JUST YET.
- PRECIPITATION-WISE BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT: FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST FRI-SAT REMAIN DRY (POSSIBLY SUN-MON
TOO, BUT NOT AS "CERTAIN"). THE BOTTOM LINE: TAKE WHAT RAIN
YOU CAN GET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: A STRETCH OF SOMEWHAT-COOL WEATHER FOR LATE
APRIL/EARLY MAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY (HIGHS MAINLY
50S-LOW 60S/OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW 30S-LOW 40S). SAT-MON
THEN BRINGS A MODEST WARM-UP...BUT STILL A FAR CRY FROM "HOT"
WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70S/LOWS MAINLY 40S.
- ON A POSITIVE NOTE: FOR THE FIRST IN AT LEAST WEEKS, THERE ARE
NO APPARENT HEIGHTENED/CRITICAL "FIRE WEATHER DAYS" THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK (DUE IN PART TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES),
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOME "NEAR-CRITICAL" CONDITIONS COULD SNEAK
BACK INTO PLAY BY SUN-MON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- NO TRULY "MAJOR" CHANGES OF NOTE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED
EARLY THIS AM.
- AS ALREADY ALLUDED TO IN THE KEY MESSAGES ABOVE, WE ARE ACTUALLY
IN THE MIDST OF A FAIRLY "IDEAL" WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS: SEASONABLY-COOL WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES AND NO
HIGHER-END FIRE WEATHER SETUPS OR CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
ONLY FOLKS WHO MIGHT COMPLAIN ARE THE "WARM WEATHER LOVERS", AS NO
DAYS WITH 80+ DEGREE HIGHS WILL OCCUR ANYTIME SOON.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH MON. MAY 4):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
FIRST, A QUICK RECAP OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS:
BACK ON THURSDAY, THIS FORECASTER MENTIONED THAT MOST OF OUR CWA
WOULD HOPEFULLY PICK UP AT LEAST 0.50-1.00". FORTUNATELY, MOST
PLACES IN FACT DID. HOWEVER, AS ALWAYS THERE WERE LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE. ON THE LOW END, A FEW WESTERN AND
ALSO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (PARTICULARLY MUCH OF
DAWSON/GOSPER/NUCKOLLS/CLAY/THAYER) FELL SOLIDLY SHORT OF
0.50...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY PICKED UP AT LEAST 0.25". ON THE
HIGHER END OF THINGS, A STRIPE RUNNING VERY ROUGHLY FROM WEST OF
HASTINGS TO NORTH OF AURORA PICKED UP AT LEAST 1.50" (LOCALIZED
3"), WHILE PARTS OF SEVERAL OF OUR KS COUNTIES ALSO SAW AT LEAST
1.50-2.00". ALL IN ALL, DECENT TOTALS, BUT IT SURE WOULD HAVE
BEEN NICE IF EVERYBODY HAD GOTTEN AT LEAST 0.50".
ON TO THE HERE AND NOW:
THE LAST OF THE SPOTTY SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM EITHER DISSIPATED OVER/DEPARTED EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (CWA) SEVERAL HOURS AGO NOW, WITH THIS AFTERNOON
FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SKIES RANGING FROM CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA, TO
PARTLY CLOUDY (EVEN POCKETS OF MOSTLY SUNNY) WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN 1/3RD. ITS BEEN BREEZY TO SOMEWHAT-WINDY AREA WIDE,
WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH/GUSTS
25-35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-LOW 50S FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST, TO A MIX OF MID-UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES, TO LOW-MID 60S MAINLY IN
OUR KS COUNTIES ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY AREA.
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY SHOW US "IN BETWEEN"
DISTURBANCES, WITH THE DEPARTING ONE EXITING OVER IA/MO, WHILE
THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CA/NV/AZ BORDER AREA...WITH WEAKER "RIPPLES" EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT OUR ENTIRE CWA MAKES IT THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT DRY, AS BREEZY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND TURN
MORE NORTHERLY. THEN, BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE TUESDAY (BUT
MAINLY AFTER 3-4 AM), A WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WILL GENERATE AT LEAST A NARROW, GENERALLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED
BAND OF CHILLY LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
"EXACT" PLACEMENT OF THIS RAIN BAND, AND RAIN CHANCES (POPS) ARE
LIKELY TOO BROAD IN NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT, BUT CONSENSUS OF LATEST
MODELS FAVORS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR NEBRASKA CWA FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AT LEAST FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRE-SUNRISE RAIN.
BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON PRECIP TYPE, WE ARE EXPECTING THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN WITHIN OUR CWA, BUT PLEASE NOTE
THAT SOME SLUSHY SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN NOT ALL THAT
FAR WEST-NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA (OUT OVER THE SANDHILLS), SO
AGAIN, THIS WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS, AM COUNTING ON
A MIX OF CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND THEN QUITE A FEW MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST (ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT) TO KEEP
THINGS FROM "TANKING" TOO FAR...AND SOME PLACES COULD SEE LOWS
REACHED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY/VERY SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVES. IF ANYTHING NUDGED UP
LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS, AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN
35-39 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS TECHNICALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST LIMITED FROST DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST), THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN MOVING IN SHOULD LARGELY PROVE
UNFAVORABLE, AND WE DON'T HAVE ANY FROST IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
IT'S BECOMING PRETTY CLEAR THAT THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL-COOLEST
AND (IN VARIOUS PLACES) OVERALL-WETTEST DAYTIME OF THE WEEK.
ALOFT, THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DRIVING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES (LOWER CHANCES IN KS). WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT
TALKING BIG AMOUNTS (MOST PLACES NO MORE THAN 0.05-0.20"), BUT
WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET! A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT WITH SUCH MEAGER INSTABILITY HAVE OMITTED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE, IF ANYTHING NUDGED DOWN
HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS, WITH MOST OF OUR CWA
(ESPECIALLY NEBRASKA) AIMED 49-54, AND THE MAJORITY OF ANY MID-
UPPER 50S FOCUSED IN KS. FINALLY, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS
TODAY, WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING (MAINLY PRE-NIGHTFALL) WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST ZONES, AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN NE. HOWEVER, HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT'S DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS
(ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 PM). WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS FROM A MAINLY NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY DIRECTION. THAT
LEAVES CLOUD COVER (AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURES) AS THE "MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION" THAT COULD ULTIMATELY MAKE-OR-BREAK THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND/OR SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT OUR LATEST
FORECAST IS GEARED TOWARD "MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF
LOWER STRATUS HERE OR THERE"). ASSUMING THIS PLAYS OUT, TEMPS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING WELL INTO THE 31-36 RANGE MOST
PLACES, WITH AREAS OF FROST A DECENT BET. THAT BEING SAID, IF
LOW STRATUS REMAINS MORE STUBBORN, IT COULD REMAIN A FEW-TO-
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN THESE MODEST UNCERTAINTIES,
REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ANY FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE
WARNINGS ON THIS SHIFT, BUT THESE WILL BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE ONE FINAL NOTE, WE COULD ALSO
PERHAPS SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT
OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT:
ALOFT, OUR AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AS A
FEW FAIRLY WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION-WISE, WHILE
MOST OF WED DAYTIME WILL REMAIN DRY, ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TARGETING MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA THURSDAY DAYTIME-EVENING BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES VACATE SOUTHWARD LATE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR (MAINLY
LOW-MID 60S). AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WED NIGHT APPEARS A TOUCH
WARMER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN, WITH LOWS MAINLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S AND THUS MINIMAL FROST CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THURS NIGHT-FRI AM LOOKS CHILLIER (LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S) AND
PERHAPS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST AND/OR SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS.
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR GOING DRY FORECAST, AS WE RESIDE
UNDER RATHER BENIGN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION). FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR FINAL "COOLISH" DAY WITH
HIGHS LOW-MID 60S, WITH SATURDAY THEN TURNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER (MAINLY LOW-MID 70S) AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHERLY. ONE FINAL
OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT COULD ARISE FRI NIGHT-SAT AM
BEFORE THE WARM-UP COMMENCES.
- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
WHILE LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE DRY, THEY ALSO BOTH SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN
THE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST CURRENTLY ASSIGNS MOST OF THESE SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO
SUNDAY NIGHT). TEMPERATURE-WISE, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR
FORECAST COULD BE AIMING A TOUCH TOO WARM, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE
CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY MID 70S BOTH DAYS, WITH MAYBE OUR FAR
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOUCHING 80.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CEILING (COMMONLY 2-4K FT. AGL) EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHICH SIDE OF THE MVFR-VFR BREAKPOINT CEILING
FALLS ON CARRIES SOME UNCERTAINTY (ESPECIALLY BEYOND THE FIRST
12 HOURS, DURING WHICH TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN MVFR).
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 15
HOURS, BUT THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE FINAL 9 HOURS OR SO (VERY LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON). FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED THESE CHANCES
WITH PROB30 GROUPS, BUT LATER TAFS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
INTRODUCING TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING.
TURNING TO WINDS, BY FAR THE STRONGEST SPEEDS OF THE PERIOD ARE
RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND COMMONLY
SUSTAINED AROUND 20KT/GUSTS 25-30KT. THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT, WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AS DIRECTION
TRENDS MORE NORTHERLY TO EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY AT-OR-BELOW 10KT FROM 06Z ONWARD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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