457
FXUS63 KGID 281139
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
30S EXPECTED.
- FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EACH
NIGHT/MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ORD, NE TO LEXINGTON,
NE MAY BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. FREEZING AND FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER
SO CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY FREEZE AND/OR FROST
HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL BE LESS CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL IMPACT
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID
20S TO MID 30S. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES
DUE TO THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
(70%) THAT LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA WILL REACH
FREEZING. FREEZE AND/OR FROST PRODUCTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
LATER TODAY. FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
EACH NIGHT/MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- NO TRULY "MAJOR" CHANGES OF NOTE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED
EARLY THIS AM.
- AS ALREADY ALLUDED TO IN THE KEY MESSAGES ABOVE, WE ARE ACTUALLY
IN THE MIDST OF A FAIRLY "IDEAL" WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS: SEASONABLY-COOL WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES AND NO
HIGHER-END FIRE WEATHER SETUPS OR CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
ONLY FOLKS WHO MIGHT COMPLAIN ARE THE "WARM WEATHER LOVERS", AS NO
DAYS WITH 80+ DEGREE HIGHS WILL OCCUR ANYTIME SOON.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH MON. MAY 4):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 33O PM:
FIRST, A QUICK RECAP OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS:
BACK ON THURSDAY, THIS FORECASTER MENTIONED THAT MOST OF OUR CWA
WOULD HOPEFULLY PICK UP AT LEAST 0.50-1.00". FORTUNATELY, MOST
PLACES IN FACT DID. HOWEVER, AS ALWAYS THERE WERE LOWER
EXCEPTIONS ON EITHER SIDE. ON THE LOW END, A FEW WESTERN AND
ALSO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (PARTICULARLY MUCH OF
DAWSON/GOSPER/NUCKOLLS/CLAY/THAYER) FELL SOLIDLY SHORT OF
0.50...BUT AT LEAST MOSTLY PICKED UP AT LEAST 0.25". ON THE
HIGHER END OF THINGS, A STRIPE RUNNING VERY ROUGHLY FROM WEST OF
HASTINGS TO NORTH OF AURORA PICKED UP AT LEAST 1.50" (LOCALIZED
3"), WHILE PARTS OF SEVERAL OF OUR KS COUNTIES ALSO SAW AT LEAST
1.50-2.00". ALL IN ALL, DECENT TOTALS, BUT IT SURE WOULD HAVE
BEEN NICE IF EVERYBODY HAD GOTTEN AT LEAST 0.50".
ON TO THE HERE AND NOW:
THE LAST OF THE SPOTTY SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM EITHER DISSIPATED OVER/DEPARTED EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (CWA) SEVERAL HOURS AGO NOW, WITH THIS AFTERNOON
FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SKIES RANGING FROM CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA, TO
PARTLY CLOUDY (EVEN POCKETS OF MOSTLY SUNNY) WITHIN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN 1/3RD. ITS BEEN BREEZY TO SOMEWHAT-WINDY AREA WIDE,
WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH/GUSTS
25-35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S-LOW 50S FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST, TO A MIX OF MID-UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES, TO LOW-MID 60S MAINLY IN
OUR KS COUNTIES ALONG WITH FURNAS COUNTY AREA.
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY SHOW US "IN BETWEEN"
DISTURBANCES, WITH THE DEPARTING ONE EXITING OVER IA/MO, WHILE
THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CA/NV/AZ BORDER AREA...WITH WEAKER "RIPPLES" EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT OUR ENTIRE CWA MAKES IT THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT DRY, AS BREEZY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND TURN
MORE NORTHERLY. THEN, BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE TUESDAY (BUT
MAINLY AFTER 3-4 AM), A WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WILL GENERATE AT LEAST A NARROW, GENERALLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED
BAND OF CHILLY LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
"EXACT" PLACEMENT OF THIS RAIN BAND, AND RAIN CHANCES (POPS) ARE
LIKELY TOO BROAD IN NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT, BUT CONSENSUS OF LATEST
MODELS FAVORS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR NEBRASKA CWA FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AT LEAST FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRE-SUNRISE RAIN.
BRIEFLY TOUCHING ON PRECIP TYPE, WE ARE EXPECTING THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN WITHIN OUR CWA, BUT PLEASE NOTE
THAT SOME SLUSHY SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN NOT ALL THAT
FAR WEST-NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA (OUT OVER THE SANDHILLS), SO
AGAIN, THIS WILL BE A CHILLY RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS, AM COUNTING ON
A MIX OF CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND THEN QUITE A FEW MID-HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST (ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT) TO KEEP
THINGS FROM "TANKING" TOO FAR...AND SOME PLACES COULD SEE LOWS
REACHED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH STEADY/VERY SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVES. IF ANYTHING NUDGED UP
LOWS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS, AIMING MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN
35-39 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS TECHNICALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST LIMITED FROST DEVELOPMENT (ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST), THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN MOVING IN SHOULD LARGELY PROVE
UNFAVORABLE, AND WE DON'T HAVE ANY FROST IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
IT'S BECOMING PRETTY CLEAR THAT THIS WILL BE THE OVERALL-COOLEST
AND (IN VARIOUS PLACES) OVERALL-WETTEST DAYTIME OF THE WEEK.
ALOFT, THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS DIRECTLY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DRIVING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES (LOWER CHANCES IN KS). WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT
TALKING BIG AMOUNTS (MOST PLACES NO MORE THAN 0.05-0.20"), BUT
WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET! A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT WITH SUCH MEAGER INSTABILITY HAVE OMITTED FROM
OFFICIAL FORECAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE, IF ANYTHING NUDGED DOWN
HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS, WITH MOST OF OUR CWA
(ESPECIALLY NEBRASKA) AIMED 49-54, AND THE MAJORITY OF ANY MID-
UPPER 50S FOCUSED IN KS. FINALLY, IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS
TODAY, WITH SPEEDS MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING (MAINLY PRE-NIGHTFALL) WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST ZONES, AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN NE. HOWEVER, HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT'S DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST ALL AREAS
(ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 PM). WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS FROM A MAINLY NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY DIRECTION. THAT
LEAVES CLOUD COVER (AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURES) AS THE "MILLION
DOLLAR QUESTION" THAT COULD ULTIMATELY MAKE-OR-BREAK THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND/OR SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE, BUT OUR LATEST
FORECAST IS GEARED TOWARD "MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF
LOWER STRATUS HERE OR THERE"). ASSUMING THIS PLAYS OUT, TEMPS
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING WELL INTO THE 31-36 RANGE MOST
PLACES, WITH AREAS OF FROST A DECENT BET. THAT BEING SAID, IF
LOW STRATUS REMAINS MORE STUBBORN, IT COULD REMAIN A FEW-TO-
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. GIVEN THESE MODEST UNCERTAINTIES,
REFRAINED FROM ISSUING ANY FROST ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE
WARNINGS ON THIS SHIFT, BUT THESE WILL BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE ONE FINAL NOTE, WE COULD ALSO
PERHAPS SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT
OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT:
ALOFT, OUR AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AS A
FEW FAIRLY WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION-WISE, WHILE
MOST OF WED DAYTIME WILL REMAIN DRY, ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY TARGETING MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA THURSDAY DAYTIME-EVENING BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES VACATE SOUTHWARD LATE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR (MAINLY
LOW-MID 60S). AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WED NIGHT APPEARS A TOUCH
WARMER GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN, WITH LOWS MAINLY
UPPER 30S-LOW 40S AND THUS MINIMAL FROST CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THURS NIGHT-FRI AM LOOKS CHILLIER (LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 30S) AND
PERHAPS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST AND/OR SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS.
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR GOING DRY FORECAST, AS WE RESIDE
UNDER RATHER BENIGN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION). FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR FINAL "COOLISH" DAY WITH
HIGHS LOW-MID 60S, WITH SATURDAY THEN TURNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER (MAINLY LOW-MID 70S) AS BREEZES TURN SOUTHERLY. ONE FINAL
OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT COULD ARISE FRI NIGHT-SAT AM
BEFORE THE WARM-UP COMMENCES.
- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
WHILE LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE DRY, THEY ALSO BOTH SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL
MAINLY SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH IN
THE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (OUR OFFICIAL
FORECAST CURRENTLY ASSIGNS MOST OF THESE SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO
SUNDAY NIGHT). TEMPERATURE-WISE, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR
FORECAST COULD BE AIMING A TOUCH TOO WARM, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE
CALLING FOR HIGHS MAINLY MID 70S BOTH DAYS, WITH MAYBE OUR FAR
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOUCHING 80.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM EAST TO WEST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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