058
FXUS63 KGID 282343
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S RAIN, ADDITIONAL/INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. NOT
"SOAKING RAINS" RAINS BY ANY MEANS, BUT MORE NEEDED RAIN
CHANCES ALL THE SAME.
- THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FROST AND/OR SLIGHTLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ON LEAST 3 OF THESE NEXT 4 NIGHTS (THE
MAIN POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING WED NIGHT-THURS AM). A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA)
FOR LATE TONIGHT-WED AM, WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES PROBABLE
LATER IN THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION-WISE IN THE LONGER TERM: MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY-TUESDAY (AND ESPECIALLY
FRI-SAT). HOWEVER, INTERMITTENT LOW-CONFIDENCE/LOW
PROBABILITY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/MAINLY WEAK STORMS RE-ENTER
OUR FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: SEASONABLY-COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT (HIGHS MAINLY LOW 60S/LOWS MAINLY 30S),
BEFORE A GRADUAL/MODEST WARM-UP TAKES HOLD THEREAFTER WITH
HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S-MID 70S AND LOWS MAINLY UPPER 30S-MID
40S). IN OTHER WORDS, NO TRULY HOT WEATHER IN SIGHT!
- ON A POSITIVE NOTE: IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE'RE LIKELY AT
LEAST A WEEK AWAY FROM ANY POSSIBLE CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (ALTHOUGH
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROBABLY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- NO TRULY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED VERSUS PREVIOUS 7-DAY
"FORECAST PACKAGE" ISSUED EARLY THIS AM.
- SIMPLY MAKING A BROAD COMMENTARY/BIG PICTURE THEME OF THE
VARIOUS KEY MESSAGES ABOVE, THIS FORECASTER'S BIGGEST TAKEAWAY
IS THAT WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT A FAIRLY IDEAL WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THIS OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY FROM A LACK-OF-HAZARDOUS-
WEATHER (MAINLY FROM A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/FIRE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE AND NOT COUNTING FROST/FREEZE AS TRULY HAZARDOUS),
AND ALSO FROM A "DROUGHT DAMAGE CONTROL" PERSPECTIVE. IN
OTHER WORDS, ALTHOUGH WE'RE NOT EXPECTING TRULY
HEAVY/"DROUGHT- BUSTING" RAINS OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE
CALLING FOR ONLY NEAR-TO-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(AT MOST) AND AN OVERALL LACK OF WINDY DAYS...KEEPING SOIL
MOISTURE EVAPORATION TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM (ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS SPRING).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH TUES. MAY 5):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM:
ALTHOUGH WE HAD AT LEAST MODEST RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY'S FORECAST
FOR A WHILE, THIS FORECASTER WILL READILY ADMIT THAT THE
COVERAGE/DURATION OF STEADY/NUMEROUS SHOWERS TODAY HAS EXCEEDED
EXPECTATIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. INSTEAD OF BEING MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED, SHOWERS HAVE INSTEAD BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE (ESPECIALLY IN OUR NEBRASKA ZONES). WHILE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS AND RESULTANT RADAR "BRIGHT BANDING" CAUSED RAW RADAR
OVER-ESTIMATION OF RAIN AMOUNTS IN SOME PLACES (ESPECIALLY EARLY
THIS MORNING...WORD OF CAUTION ON THAT), GROUND TRUTH FROM
DOZENS OF AIRPORT/MESONET STATIONS CONFIRMS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA HAS PICKED UP (OR WILL STILL PICK UP) AT
LEAST 0.05-0.15" TODAY, WITH ISOLATED/SPOTTY POCKETS OF AT LEAST
0.25" (INCLUDING MUCH OF DAWSON COUNTY WHICH WAS LARGELY MISSED
BY HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND). ONE ONE FINAL "PAST WEATHER"
NOTE, BASED ON OBS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA AT NORTH PLATTE/BROKEN
BOW, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A TOUCH OF WET/SLUSHY SNOW MIXED INTO
THE RAIN MAINLY IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CWA, BUT LIKELY WITH
ZERO ACCUMULATION WITHIN OUR BORDERS.
AS OF THIS WRITING, RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE DRIFTING
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHEAST HALF. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS,
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE (BUT VERY EVIDENT) SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN
THE PROCESS OF PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION, WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY EXITING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT PASSES. AT THE SURFACE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED SLIGHTLY TO OUR NORTH HAS PROMOTED FAIRLY
LIGHT (MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS) NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES
TODAY.
DUE HEAVILY TO THE "OVER-ACHEIVING" COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EASILY FALL 5+ DEGREES SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS FROM ONLY 12 HOURS
AGO IN SOME AREAS (ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN 2/3RDS)...WITH HIGHS
NOW EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NO MORE THAN MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST OF
OUR NEBRASKA ZONES, TO LOW-MID 50S MAINLY IN KS AND THAYER
COUNTY AREA.
- THIS EVENING (PRE-MIDNIGHT):
BETWEEN 7-9 PM, ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS STILL ONGOING IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN/EASTERN CWA WILL STEADILY DEPART OFF TO THE EAST.
OFF TO OUR WEST, A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWEST NE/NORTHWEST KS, BUT SHOULD FADE AWAY BEFORE
POTENTIALLY INFILTRATING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
- LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED AM (POST-MIDNIGHT):
ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A
DEPARTURE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, THERE IS STILL AT LEAST
MODEST UNCERTAINTY IN HOW EFFICIENTLY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS CLEARS OUT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
THAT WE'LL LIKELY SEE A PRETTY EFFICIENT CLEAR-OUT (EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF STRATUS HERE OR THERE), AS A
ROUGHLY 1023 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA. ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR AS EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL SURELY DROP QUITE EFFICIENTLY, WITH LATE NIGHT
BREEZES MAINLY AVERAGING UNDER 5 MPH FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IF
ANYTHING, LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGED UPWARD VERY SLIGHTLY (PERHAPS
NOT THE RIGHT DIRECTION?), BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS
NOW EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT 29-36 DEGREES. WHILE ESPECIALLY SOME
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SURELY DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING, AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE
IN OUR CWA. INSTEAD OF "SPLITTING HAIRS" A BIT AND ISSUING BOTH
A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FREEZE WARNING AND A FROST ADVISORY, DECIDED
TO SIMPLIFY MESSAGING A BIT AND ISSUE A CWA-WIDE FROST ADVISORY
TO COVER THE MAIN IMPACT TO TENDER VEGETATION (A FREEZE WARNING
WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE STRONGLY CONSIDERED HAD WE BEEN CALLING FOR
A MORE WIDESPREAD "HARD FREEZE" OF 28-OR-COLDER). IN OTHER
DEPARTMENTS, HIGHER-RES VISIBILITY SUCH AS FROM HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF OUR CWA WILL BE PRONE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT (AND POSSIBLY SPOTTY DENSE FOG
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS). WHILE THE NEWLY-WETTED
GROUND AND CLEAR SKIES ARGUE FOR FOG FORMATION, THE LIGHT
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE BREEZE OFTEN INHIBITS WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH INTRODUCED "PATCHY TO AREAS" OF FOG TO OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ALSO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID), DEFINITELY DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A
PROACTIVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY (SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH).
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
IN THE WAKE OF ANY EARLY-AM FROST/FREEZE AND POSSIBLE FOG
CONCERNS, THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION, BUT MAINLY SOME VARIATION OF WESTERLY OR
NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPS WERE CHANGED LITTLE, WITH MOST PLACES
AIMED PRETTY UNIFORMLY BETWEEN 62-65 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, ALREADY BY LATE AFTERNOON (MAINLY AFTER 4 PM), YET
ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE DIVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WILL SPARK MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK (NON-
SEVERE) DEVELOPING OVER AND/OR DRIFTING INTO MAINLY OUR
NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES.
- WEDNESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED,
MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AT LEAST SPOTTY
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/A FEW WEAK STORMS, AND QUITE A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER (ESPECIALLY POST-MIDNIGHT) VERSUS TONIGHT. ASSUMING
THIS OCCURS, WE SHOULD HAVE A "ONE NIGHT BREAK" FROM
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS (EXCEPT FOR MAYBE OUR FAR NORTH-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES). LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED MAINLY 38-43 DEGREES MOST
AREAS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE FROST DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL NEED CLOSELY
MONITORED HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEARER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- THURSDAY DAYTIME-FRIDAY NIGHT:
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 48 HOURS, OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY, AS AT LEAST A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ANCHORED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS
TIME WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR
AREA THURS DAYTIME-EVENING, KICKING UP NORTHERLY BREEZES A BIT
(GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH). PRECIPITATION-WISE, CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HIGHEST THURSDAY DAYTIME (AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA), BEFORE ANY RAIN CHANCES DEPART SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS STILL APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR BOTH DAYS (MAINLY LOW-MID 60S) AND SAME STORY WITH
LOW TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS (MAINLY LOW-MID 30S). ASSUMING NO
UNEXPECTED ENHANCED CLOUD COVER, BOTH THURS NIGHT-FRI AM AND FRI
NIGHT-SAT AM WILL BE GOOD CANDIDATES FOR ADDITIONAL FROST
ADVISORIES (MAYBE FREEZE WARNINGS?).
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY AND
OVERALL-PLEASANT BY MOST FOLKS' STANDARDS, WITH WARMER AIR
ARRIVING AND RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR-70 ON
SATURDAY, AND MAINLY MID-UPPER 70S SUNDAY (AND WITH RELATIVELY
TAME BREEZES). SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS ALMOST "GUARANTEED"
DRY, BUT HONESTLY SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT CARRY A FEW MORE QUESTION
MARKS AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS DEPICT AT LEAST SPOTTY RAIN AT LEAST
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF OUR CWA. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS,
THEY APPEAR TO TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER (MAINLY UPPER 30S-MID 40S),
TAKING FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS BACK OUT OF THE PICTURE.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AS USUAL, UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS GROWS BY THIS RANGE, BUT
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS BACK VARIOUS MAINLY SMALL (20-30%)
CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND (PROBABLY) WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WE REMAIN IN THE PATH OF AT LEAST A FEW
DISTURBANCES DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPS
ARE AIMED VERY SIMILAR BOTH DAYS...MOST AREAS LOW-MID 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
ARRIVES FROM THE W/NW AROUND 04-06Z. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WRLY WIND AROUND 5KT, MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS
09-10Z, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR EAR THAN GRI. HAVE
LOWERED EAR TO MVFR VSBYS, AND CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...BUT THINKING IS THE WRLY WIND DIRECTION
WILL HELP KEEP THE FOG FROM BECAUSE DENSE ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.
LATE DAY CLEARING AND DAMP GROUND ARE COMPETING FACTORS FOR FOG,
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY: PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE,
SHOULD BE A PRETTY NICE DAY, ESP. FROM A WIND STANDPOINT, AS
SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ONLY 5-8KT OUT OF THE W THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HAVE SOME AFTN CU DEVELOPING AROUND 2K FT TOWARDS MIDDAY.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...THIES
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