165
FXUS63 KGID 011800
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- EITHER A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA) FOR LATE TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY AM.
- HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
STORMS ARE LIKELY (15-25% COVERAGE) ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
- PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A CHILLY
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
WHILE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING AT
TIMES, THIS OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A TRUE HARD/KILLING FREEZE.
AFTER A FROSTY START TO THE DAY, HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S (NORTH) TO MID 60S (SOUTH). NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES, GUSTING 20-25MPH BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-25%) THIS
AFTERNOON- EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THESE STORMS FROM BECOMING
STRONG/SEVERE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS LOOK TO BE LIGHT (A
FEW HUNDREDTHS).
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD BE
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE
RATHER THAN "JUST FROST". REGARDLESS, HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT FOR THIS FROST/FREEZE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S AIDED BY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTING IN A PLEASANT
WEEKEND OVERALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A WEAK FRONT CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES
AND MODESTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WITH THE COLDER
AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT, STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POPPING UP THIS
AFTERNOON...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, A
RECIPE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST APPEARS TO BE IN STORE, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID-30S. AS A
RESULT, A FROST ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND LINGERS THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A VERY WEAK THUNDERSTORM) FOCUSED ACROSS
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SKIES BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT, FROST IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE, ALBEIT EVEN COLDER TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY JUSTIFY A FREEZE
WARNING IN SPOTS.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE WEEKEND SATURDAY MORNING, HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST, MAKING FOR A PRETTY SPECTACULAR WEEKEND ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S (SATURDAY) TO NEAR 80 (SUNDAY). WHILE
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEW WEEK, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DISTURBANCE
FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE
DECENT SIGNALS FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THIS PERIOD IN
ENSEMBLES, ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND QPF
ESTIMATES ARE FAIRLY MODEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THERE IS EXTREMELY-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE "CATCH" IS A
VERY SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE OF A ROGUE PASSING SHOWER MAINLY
BETWEEN 20-00Z (THIS CHANCE CURRENTLY DEEMED TOO LOW FOR FORMAL
TAF INCLUSION). WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS OCCUR, A
MID-LEVEL/VFR CEILING AROUND 8K FT. AGL IS LIKELY DURING THIS
SAME TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE, WITH THE OVERALL
"STRONGEST" SPEEDS RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON-VERY EARLY EVENING
(SUSTAINED AROUND 10-12KT/GUSTS 15-20KT) OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST). THEREAFTER, MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FEATURE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION BREEZES UNDER
6KT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. FINALLY, A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM MID-MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ062>064-
073>077-082>087.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060-061-072.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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