381
FXUS63 KGID 012134
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
434 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM (1-8 AM), OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA (CWA) GOES UNDER EITHER A FREEZE WARNING OR FROST
ADVISORY, AS LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT 27-36
DEGREES MOST PLACES.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN A DRY WEEKEND (ONCE ANY
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS FADE AWAY THIS EVENING), WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY 70S/LOWS MAINLY 40S) AND NO
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK: INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF WE GET ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME (NOT NECESSARILY SEVERE), THEY
APPEAR MOST FAVORED MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK: AFTER PEAKING ON MONDAY (HIGHS NEAR 80
MANY AREAS), ESPECIALLY TUES-WED BRING ANOTHER DECENT COOL-
DOWN WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY ONLY PROJECTED NEAR-60 AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY 30S (PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL FROST CONCERNS TUES
NIGHT AND/OR WED NIGHT?). AN UPWARD REBOUND BACK TO HIGHS
UPPER 60S-UPPER 70S IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURS-FRI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 434 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- NO TRULY "MAJOR" CHANGES TO SPEAK OF, WITH THE KEY MESSAGES
ABOVE GIVING A DECENT OVERVIEW OF THE HIGHLIGHTS.
- THAT BEING SAID, ON THE MORE MINOR SIDE OF THINGS, HIGH TEMPS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT A BIT FARTHER
OUT THEY HAVE TRENDED A GOOD 2-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR WED-THURS, AS THE MID-WEEK COOL DOWN LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN BEFORE.
- ALL IN ALL THOUGH, NOTHING ALL THAT UNUSUAL ABOUT THE NEXT
WEEK FOR EARLY MAY, AS ON POSITIVE NOTES WE: 1) APPEAR TO BE
LACKING IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS (WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON MONDAY THOUGH)...2) DO NOT CURRENTLY FORESEE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. ON A NEGATIVE NOTE,
UNFORTUNATELY RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK ABUNDANT, BUT HOPEFULLY
AT LEAST SOME PLACES CAN PICK UP AT LEAST 0.25" WITH THE
INTERMITTENT CHANCES MAINLY MON-WED, AND THE LACK OF "HIGHER
END HEAT" SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP SOIL MOISTURE EVAPORATION TO A
RELATIVE MINIMUM.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH FRI. MAY 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 PM:
OVERALL, CERTAINLY NO BIG SURPRISES TODAY. AS EXPECTED, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MATERIALIZED OVER OUR KS COUNTIES, WHILE NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
A SMATTERING OF SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED AT LEAST ON RADAR (MOST
OF WHICH PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY LOW-
LEVELS).
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE U.S., WITH OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION RESIDING
UNDER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...DIRECTED BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER SEVERAL NORTHWESTERN STATES,
AND AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH DOMINATED MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
STATES AND ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. ON
THE SMALLER SCALE, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
DIVING DUE SOUTHWARD OUT OF SD INTO NE, AND IS HELPING PROVIDE
LIFT TO GET OUR SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES GOING.
AT THE SURFACE, A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT EMANATING SOUTHWARD
FROM A ROUGHLY 1020 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SD,
ALONG WITH DIURNAL/DAYTIME MIXING, IS PROMOTING SOMEWHAT-BREEZY
NORTH WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...COMMONLY SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH/GUSTS
20+ MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN
60-66 DEGREES ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA.
- THIS EVENING (PRE-MIDNIGHT):
THROUGH AT LEAST NIGHTFALL (9-10 PM), ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) WILL CONTINUE IN
OUR SOUTH (ESPECIALLY KS), WHILE MAINLY SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES...DRIVEN BY A
COMBINATION OF WEAK INSTABILITY (CAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG)
AND UPPER FORCING/LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE DIVING
DIRECTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THESE FAIRLY
MINOR PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM ESPECIALLY
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE KS BORDER, WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THEY
MAY NEED EXTENDED A TOUCH LONGER AND ALSO EXPANDED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER, NO MATTER WHAT, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
EVEN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE NO LATER
THAN 11PM-MIDNIGHT, WITH SKIES THEN CLEARING EFFICIENTLY FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH.
- LATE TONIGHT (POST-MIDNIGHT):
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE HEART OF OUR
CWA IN THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE DIRECTION
BREEZES (MAINLY UNDER 5 MPH), THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A FAIRLY
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION. AS A RESULT, SLIGHTLY
"UNDERCUT" MOST AVAILABLE/GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH MOST
PLACES FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-34 DEGREES, AND SOME
UPPER 20S MOST FAVORED MAINLY IN OUR FAR NORTH-NORTHWEST (MAINLY
NORTH OF A LEXINGTON-GREELEY LINE). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FROST DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR FROST/FREEZE "HEADLINES", DUE IN PART
TO NEIGHBORING WFO'S NORTH PLATTE/GOODLAND OPTING TO "JOIN THE
HEADLINE GAME" NOW THAT IT'S MAY, DECIDED TO DO BOTH A FREEZE
WARNING FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF OUR CWA (COUNTIES MOST
FAVORED TO SEE LOW TEMPS ~ 30 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY COLDER), WHILE
ISSUING ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA
(VERY-SLIGHTLY-FREEZING LOW TEMPS AS COLD AS 30-32 POSSIBLE IN
A FEW SPOTS, BUT WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY DROPPING NO COLDER THAN
32-36 AND MAKING FROST THE MAIN CONCERN INSTEAD OF A "TRUE"
FREEZE".
- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
FOLLOWING THE SEASONABLY-CHILLY/FROSTY START, A FAIRLY PLEASANT
AND ALL-BUT-GUARANTEED DRY DAY IS ON TAP, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING RATHER STEADILY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET OF STEADY (BUT
NOT VERY STRONG) WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES (GENERALLY SUSTAINED
10-15 MPH/GUSTS 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON). HIGH TEMPS WERE
CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND ARE AIMED ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY (MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT 70-74 DEGREES).
- SATURDAY NIGHT:
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH BY FAR
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE VERSUS TONIGHT BEING MILDER LOW
TEMPERATURES. FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
BREEZES WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH, WHICH ALONG WITH THE WARMER LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS 10+ DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES AIMED 40-46 DEGREES.
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA LIKELY STAYS DRY THROUGH THESE 24
HOURS, BUT ESPECIALLY OUR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA COULD BE BRUSHED
BY A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES BY
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (RIGHT NOW WE HAVE SOME 20% CHANCES
IN OUR FAR NORTH DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT). DURING THE
DAYTIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWA,
TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY-TO-EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS DID COME DOWN
VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST (1-2 DEGREES) DUE IN PART
TO THESE WEAK FRONT, BUT WE'RE STILL CALLING FOR A RANGE FROM
LOW-MID 70S NORTH...TO UPPER 70S-LOW 80S SOUTH (MOST 80+
READINGS IN OUR KS ZONES).
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
OUR WEATHER LOOKS TO TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE AGAIN, AS INCREASED
FORCING/UPPER LIFT FROM DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND ALSO RIDING IN FROM THE WEST (PRIMARY UPPER LOWS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ALSO SOUTHERN CA/AZ
REGION) WILL TEAM UP TO DRIVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION...SPARKING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH (WILL IT BE AFTERNOON OR EVENING?), BUT THERE ARE
HINTS THAT AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF IT,
WITH EARLY PROJECTIONS FROM NAM/GFS SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM
500-1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE GETTING INTO ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF OUR CWA. THIS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST A FEW STRONG (MAYBE MARGINALLY SEVERE?) STORMS TO MAINLY
OUR SOUTHERN-SOUTHEAST CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING, SO
THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF SPC
OPTS TO ASSIGN A FORMAL MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ON
TONIGHT'S UPCOMING DAY 3 OUTLOOK. AT ANY RATE, ONCE WE GET PAST
MONDAY EVENING, COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR ENTERS OUR AREA, KEEPING
ANY PRECIP INTO TUESDAY AS MORE BENIGN RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE'RE CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A 15-20 DEGREE
DROP IN HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN MONDAY (MOST AREAS MID 70S-LOW 80S)
AND TUESDAY (NEAR-60). IF SKIES HAPPEN TO CLEAR ENOUGH (STILL
VERY MUCH A QUESTION MARK), PERHAPS WE HAVE SOME FROST CONCERNS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
IN THE BIG PICTURE ALOFT, WE LOOK TO RESIDE UNDER MAINLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THUS SUBJECT TO OCCASIONAL WEAK
WAVES AND AT LEAST SPOTTY RAIN SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. OFFICIALLY, OUR ONLY MENTIONABLE (20+%) RAIN CHANCES
ARE RIGHT AWAY WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH. HOWEVER, DESPITE OUR GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
THURS-FRI, THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS SUGGESTS IT'S NO GUARANTEE TO
STAY THIS WAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, A STEADY WARM-UP IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THESE 3 DAYS...WITH HIGHS RISING
FROM UPPER 50S/NEAR-60 ON WEDNESDAY...TO MID 60S-LOW 70S
THURSDAY...TO MID-UPPER 70S FRIDAY. LIKE TUES NIGHT-WED AM, WED
NIGHT-THURS AM CURRENTLY BEAR WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FROST OR
MARGINAL FREEZE POSSIBILITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THERE IS EXTREMELY-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF IT. THE ONLY POSSIBLE "CATCH" IS A
VERY SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE OF A ROGUE PASSING SHOWER MAINLY
BETWEEN 20-00Z (THIS CHANCE CURRENTLY DEEMED TOO LOW FOR FORMAL
TAF INCLUSION). WHETHER OR NOT ANY SHOWERS OCCUR, A
MID-LEVEL/VFR CEILING AROUND 8K FT. AGL IS LIKELY DURING THIS
SAME TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE, WITH THE OVERALL
"STRONGEST" SPEEDS RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON-VERY EARLY EVENING
(SUSTAINED AROUND 10-12KT/GUSTS 15-20KT) OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST). THEREAFTER, MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FEATURE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION BREEZES UNDER
6KT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. FINALLY, A SLIGHTLY
STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM MID-MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ062>064-
073>077-082>087.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060-061-072.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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