980
FXUS63 KGID 030515
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A SMALL BUMP UP IN
HIGHS, MOST SPOTS LOOKING TO REACH INTO THE 70S.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...MAINLY FOCUSED ON LATE DAY
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO DRY BACK OUT.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA USHERS IN
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUE-WED, FOLLOWING THE 70S-LOW 80S ON
MON. HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH SUNDAY...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REIGN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ENTIRE DAY HAVING SUNNY SKIES.
LOOKING IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SOLIDLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...SET UP BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHING
WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WITH TIME TODAY. THIS
BROUGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE DAY...WHICH HAVE
TURNED MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS REMAIN LIGHT AS THEY SIT CLOSER TO THAT SFC HIGH...THE
STRONGER SPEEDS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WITH GUSTS AT TIMES
AROUND 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL, WITH
OBS AT 3PM SITTING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
OVERALL, NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH
REMAINS LARGELY DRY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
CONTINUED GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED WITH TIME AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA/NEAR THE US
BORDER. THE ONLY MENTION OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS
SUNDAY EVENING-NIGHT...WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAK SHORTWAVE SPARKING OFF ACTIVITY NEAR THE WESTERN NE/SD
BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS ITS EVOLUTION AND WHETHER IT
IS MAINTAINED LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA...SOME
MODELS SAY IT WANES BEFORE THEN. NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE CHANCES AT THIS POINT.
AFTER SEEING PLENTY OF SUN TODAY, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
INCREASED MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WE GET INTO
SUNDAY...NOT TOTALLY OVERCAST, BUT LOOKING TO BE GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY, MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES IN SPOTS. AS FAR AS WINDS
GO, LATE TONIGHT-SUN AM, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING
TO OUR NE WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION...USHERING IN A SWITCH TO MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEEDS...IT'S NOT A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WINDS LIGHTEN
A BIT, TURNING MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME. EXPECTING A SLIGHT BUMP
UP IN TEMPS, WITH MORE OF THE AREA IN THE LOW-MID 70S (VS THE
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S BY THE END OF TODAY).
NEW WORK WEEK...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY INTO THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH THE
FORECAST HAS CHANCES EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THERE ARE AT LEAST A
HANDFUL OF MODELS SHOWING THAT FOR MOST, THAT 18-21Z PERIOD IS
LIKELY DRY. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NRN PLAINS. ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN PROXIMITY TO THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES/DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH JUST
EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. SOME MODELS SHOW BY 00Z THE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NE-KS STATE LINE...A FEW ARE A
TOUCH SLOWER/FURTHER NORTH. THOUGH WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH
EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...NOT EXPECTING A NOTABLE PUSH OF BETTER
MOISTURE NORTH BEFORE THAT FRONT ARRIVES...CURRENT FORECAST
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S TO MID 40S (BETTER
CHANCE FOR 50S+ DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KS AND FAR SE
NEB.). EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP UP IN HIGHS FOR MONDAY, REACHING
INTO THE MID 70S-LOW 80S, BUT MODELS HAVE BETTER INSTABILITY
FOCUSING JUST OFF TO OUR SE...THUS SPC HAS KEPT THE DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK AREA OVER THAT SAME AREA. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS
TREND IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER AND
ANOTHER SHIFTING EAST FROM THE WEST COAST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
MORE PHASED IN WITH THAT CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING...ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID-
WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE PLENTY OF DETAILS
TO IRON OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD IS
ALSO THE COOLEST OF THIS 7-DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW WEEK DRIES BACK OUT...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LLWS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENDING BY SUNRISE AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10KTS DURING THE
MORNING-AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY
EVENING, AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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