298
FXUS63 KGID 040525
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER-
THUNDERSTORM COULD WORK ITS WAY IN TO FAR NNW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
- ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOUTHWARD PUSHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. FOR AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NE-KS STATE LINE, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOME AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS COULD BE STRONG, BUT THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED TO
OUR SE.
- TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S...WITH PERIODIC PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
CAN'T COMPLAIN TOO MUCH ABOUT CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOOKING ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE DESERT SW INTO
THE ROCKIES, WHILE A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS INCHING
CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL CA COAST. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SE OFF TO OUR NNE LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
PUSHED A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES BY AROUND MIDDAY. THIS
FRONT USHERED IN GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WITH IT NOT
BEING A STRONG FRONT, HAS NOT BROUGHT A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
SPEEDS OR A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S-LOW 80S.
TO VARYING DEGREES, SOME MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NE/SD HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY OF
THAT ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO GET INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THAT BEING
POSSIBLE, HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP IN FAR NNW PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS MID-LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE, TURNING MORE WSW
CLOSER TO DAWN...AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT
FROM TODAY AND THE NEXT WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK REMAINS ON
THE MORE ACTIVE/WET SIDE. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAINS DRY...IT'S NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA...AIDING IN THE EVENTUAL DEEPENING OF A MORE ORGANIZED
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO BY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SO ITS PROGRESS/LOCATION IS AN
IMPORTANT DETAIL. STILL SOME LINGERING SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS WHEN ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS...RANGING FROM CLOSER TO THE NE/KS STATE LINE TO A
TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO I-70. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE WITH FORECAST HIGHS, REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. BECAUSE OF THE SHORT PERIOD BETWEEN FRONTAL
PASSAGES...THE SURFACE PATTERN NEVER GETS MUCH OF A CHANCE TO
BRING MORE SOLIDLY SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND INCREASED
MOISTURE RETURN. FORECAST DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN
IN THE 30S- 40S...SO MODELS ARE KEEPING INSTABILITY MAINLY LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG, WITH BETTER VALUES MORE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN KS
WHERE DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO/OVER 50 ARE EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME STORMS BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE...BUT THE BETTER THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FOCUSED JUST OFF TO OUR E-SE, WHERE
THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS.
FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH
MODELS, AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FORECAST REMAINS SITUATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF LARGER, BROADER TROUGHING DRIVEN BY THAT
CANADIAN LOW CREEPING FURTHER EAST. THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY
MAY END UP BEING SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO. TUESDAY EVENING ON INTO
WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH RECENT RUNS GENERALLY FOCUSING
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SSW HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SITTING NORTH OF THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY/THUNDER, SO JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS IS THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE. EXPECTING GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPS,
WITH HIGHS BOTH TUE-WED FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD PICTURE...SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING TO BE MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY,
AT TIMES MORE ZONAL, THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO BRING PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD. LOT OF
DETAILS TO IRON OUT OVER THIS WEEK, DON'T GET TOO HUNG UP ON
SPECIFICS THAT FAR OUT. FOLLOWING THOSE TUE-WED HIGHS IN THE
50S, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THU-SUN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INCREASE TO 25KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING
BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. SKC-FEW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z, THOUGH THE TIMING AND
DURATION OF ANY STORM IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE INDICATED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A PROB30 GROUP. +
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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