086
FXUS63 KGID 070535
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A "MEDIUM CONFIDENCE" FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 1-8 AM
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...PRIMARILY COUNTIES WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
- LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP (10%-15% CHANCE) THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE TO AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
LEVELS FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS (A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE?) MAY
AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 739 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- SOME UPDATES/NOTES REGARDING THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT-THURSDAY AM:
- THE VERY BASICS:
THE TIME DURATION OF THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN "SHRUNK" FROM
10PM-9AM...TO NOW 1AM-8AM, AS THIS NEW TIMING BETTER REFLECTS
THE TRUE "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" FOR POSSIBLE FROST.
- MORE DETAILS:
AS FROST ADVISORIES GO, THIS ONE IS ADMITTEDLY ON THE
MARGINAL/"MEDIUM CONFIDENCE" SIDE...AND PROBABLY ERRS ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION FOR MOST PLACES.
AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE
WEATHER SETUP LATE TONIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS NOT YOUR
CLASSIC "RIDGE NIGHT" WITH NEAR-CALM WINDS AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALMOST DIRECTLY ON TOP OF US. INSTEAD, TONIGHT
IS ACTUALLY A WARM AIR ADVECTION NIGHT (WAA), WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THAT ACTUALLY INCREASE
POST-MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH/SPORADIC GUSTS 20+
MPH. AS A RESULT, DESPITE CLEAR SKIES (ALWAYS FAVORABLE FOR A
TEMPERATURE DROP), THOSE BREEZES/ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA
SHOULD REALLY COUNTER THE CLEAR SKIES AND KEEP TEMPS FROM
"TANKING". OFFICIAL LOW TEMPS HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH EVEN MUCH OF THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA NOW EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT NO COLDER THAN 33-37 DEGREES.
WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST MARGINALLY-SUPPORT PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPMENT, THE AFOREMENTIONED STEADY BREEZES SHOULD
HEAVILY CONFINE FROST TO LIMITED, LOW-LYING AND WIND-SHELTERED
LOCATIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA
PROBABLY WON'T SEE FROST. THESE MITIGATING FACTORS HAVE ALSO
BEEN INCLUDED IN AN "ADDITIONAL DETAILS" BULLET IN OUR
LATEST OFFICIAL ADVISORY STATEMENT.
ALL THAT BEING SAID:
GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW NEARLY A WEEK INTO MAY AND MORE AND MORE
HOME OWNERS/GARDEN CENTERS HAVE EITHER PLANTED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION OR ROLLED OUT THEIR INVENTORY INTO OUTDOOR SETTINGS,
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FROST ADVISORY (AGAIN, ERRING ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION), WHILE FULLY ACKNOWLEDGING THAT MOST OF THE
ADVISORY AREA PROBABLY WON'T ACTUALLY REALIZE FROST FORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
50S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT RANGING
FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS POTENTIAL (AROUND 50% TO 60% CHANCE) FOR
FROST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND SPEED, MOISTURE, AND
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LIKELY (80%-90% CHANCE) BE THE LAST
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SEASON. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAY
EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 32 DEGREES. A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID/UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY RESULT (10%-15% CHANCE) IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S AND 80S. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE FRONT AND MAY RESULT (UP TO AROUND 70%
CHANCE) IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO INCREASE IN LIFT, HIGHER
CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20-30 MPH AND HUMIDITY DOWN TO 15%-20% JUST WEST OF THE TRI-
CITIES AREA. SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
SHIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, GUSTS FALL BELOW 20KTS AS WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER SUNSET, SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH CEILINGS BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 080-100. HAVE
INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB30 GROUP.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039-040-046-
060-061-072>074-082>084.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-017-
018.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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