359
FXUS63 KGID 080008
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
708 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING (ANY STORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST), WITH SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LINGERING HERE OR THERE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (0.10" AT
MOST...MANY AREAS LIKELY NO MORE THAN SPRINKLES).
- SOLIDLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY-LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY COUNTIES
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80), DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) AS LOW AS 20-25%. NEXT WEEK,
AT-LEAST-NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY NEARLY EVERY DAY AS
TEMPS WARM/WINDS INCREASE.
- ALTHOUGH LIKELY ONLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, OUR OVERALL BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
ARRIVES SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING. SEVERE STORMS APPEAR FAIRLY
UNLIKELY, BUT A FEW STRONGER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN OUR KS
COUNTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S EACH DAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY 40S/50S. IT IS INCREASINGLY-LIKELY THAT
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ARE BEHIND US FOR THE SPRING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT BRINING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM TO
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ONE MORE NOTABLE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY BRINING WITH IT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
FEW POP UP SPRINKLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON). WHILE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY, LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS OUTSIDE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. THAT SAID, A
FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE NAMNEST FIRE UP A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY IMPACT LOCAL
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA, SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (IN THE 80S) THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH WITH FUELS STARTING TO GREEN-UP, SOME OF THIS CONCERN
MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ALLEVIATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL CEILING (AROUND 8-10K FT.) WILL BE
COMMON MUCH OF THE TIME. PRECIPITATION-WISE, ALTHOUGH A SPOTTY
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THESE
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW AND DEEMED NOT EVEN WORTHY OF TAF
INCLUSION AT KGRI. AT KEAR, HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO, SO HAVE MAINTAINED A
PROB30 GROUP VALID 04-07Z.
TURNING TO WINDS, THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD THEY WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE, WITH SPEEDS THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AND ON
INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY DAYTIME AVERAGING SOLIDLY UNDER
10KT FROM VARYING DIRECTIONS. HOWEVER, A STEADIER NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL KICK IN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON, WITH ESPECIALLY
20Z ONWARD LIKELY FEATURING GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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