702
FXUS63 KGID 081759
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE, BUT THERE
IS A LOW (5%) CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS IN NORTHERN KANSAS.
- MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY DAYS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
THESE MAY PERSIST A BIT PAST SUNRISE IN PORTIONS OF KANSAS, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DRY DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH (POSSIBLY HIGHER IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA). THIS, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20%
WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED (<1000 J/KG MUCAPE), BUT STRONG
SHEAR COULD ALLOW A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO ORGANIZED AND
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD BE IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS, AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL
RISK (5%) FOR SEVERE WIND IN AN HAIL IN THIS AREA.
AFTER A "COOLER" DAY ON SUNDAY (UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID MAY), A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REACH THE 80S (AT
LEAST) EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
SLIM, WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE KEY MESSAGES ABOVE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH OF THESE
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT BRINING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM TO
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ONE MORE NOTABLE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY BRINING WITH IT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
FEW POP UP SPRINKLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON). WHILE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY, LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS OUTSIDE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. THAT SAID, A
FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE NAMNEST FIRE UP A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY IMPACT LOCAL
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA, SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (IN THE 80S) THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH WITH FUELS STARTING TO GREEN-UP, SOME OF THIS CONCERN
MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ALLEVIATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALREADY SEEING A FEW CU DEVELOP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT A SCT100 DECK TO DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS CU SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW, AND WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A
SPRINKLE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT EITHER
TERMINAL. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS...TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT
09/02Z...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST TO NEAR 15 KTS AFT
09/15Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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