521
FXUS63 KGID 082354
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
654 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..0Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL NOT
BE SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S TO START NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH THE 90S IN SPOTS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
- WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES, A DRY AIRMASS, AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS, NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS HIGH
BASED CU HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW, WITH NO PRECIPITATION BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THIS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. THESE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MIXING/WARMTH, EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AS WE SAW TO START THE DAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NE/KS
STATE LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE FORCING FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DURING THE 4-10 PM TIME FRAME, WITH
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE. THAT SAID, DESPITE RELATIVELY UN-IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
VALUES, GOOD SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS WELL.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS DEFINITELY FOCUS THE BETTER LOOKING
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES, BUT A SECOND LINE OF
(NON-SEVERE) STORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS WELL.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINING TO MAKE FOR A
RATHER NICE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EAST TO START NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY MARKING THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SEVERAL NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH LIKELY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE CURRENT CPC OUTLOOK FOR
WEEK 2 SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION,
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FULL PERIOD WITH
A MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IF A THUNDERSTORM PASSES NEAR/OVER
THE TERMINALS AFTER 19Z (PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW). CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT TONIGHT WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CEILING MAINLY RESTING BETWEEN 8,000-1,4000FT. STORMS MAY
APPROACH THE VICINITY OF BOTH SITES AFTER 19Z.
BESIDES THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM, WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SOON LIGHTEN
THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON STIRS 10-15KTS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
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