813
FXUS63 KGID 090538
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL NOT
BE SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 80S TO START NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH THE 90S IN SPOTS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
- WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES, A DRY AIRMASS, AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS, NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA
EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS HIGH
BASED CU HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW, WITH NO PRECIPITATION BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THIS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. THESE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MIXING/WARMTH, EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AS WE SAW TO START THE DAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NE/KS
STATE LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE FORCING FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DURING THE 4-10 PM TIME FRAME, WITH
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE. THAT SAID, DESPITE RELATIVELY UN-IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
VALUES, GOOD SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS WELL.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS DEFINITELY FOCUS THE BETTER LOOKING
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES, BUT A SECOND LINE OF
(NON-SEVERE) STORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS WELL.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINING TO MAKE FOR A
RATHER NICE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EAST TO START NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY MARKING THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SEVERAL NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH LIKELY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE CURRENT CPC OUTLOOK FOR
WEEK 2 SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION,
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH THE VICINITY
OF BOTH THE KEAR AND KGRI TERMINALS BETWEEN MAINLY 18-1Z.
THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD FORM AS EARLY AS 15Z OR AS LATE AS
8Z, THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
JUST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (18-21Z). CEILINGS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO DROP BELOW 6,000FT. IF A
SHOWER/STORMS TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS, BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 3SM COULD BE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS
THAT DOES FORM WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW BETWEEN 5-10KTS WITH
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20KTS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ABRUPTLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH
MORE PERSISTENT GUSTS PICKING UP TO AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS. WINDS
LATER SATURDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
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