026
FXUS63 KGID 091046
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
546 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80
WILL REMAIN DRY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5%) FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE, NE TO MANKATO, KS.
- BEYOND TODAY, RAIN CHANCES LOOK BLEAK UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN NEXT WEEK AS
HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CAMS SHOW A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID, MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WITH LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MUCAPE BUT AMPLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. AS SUCH, MOST STORMS WILL BE NON-SEVERE, BUT A FEW COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUD BASES WOULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT, BUT SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT. THE PRIMARY
TIMEFRAME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE 4-9PM. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DEPART THE
AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. ALL SAID AND
DONE, AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL, BUT EVEN THERE IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
ANYTHING MORE THAN 0.10-0.25".
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 70S, WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AND EVEN AFTER THAT, GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL RAIN TOTALS THROUGH AT
LEAST MAY 20TH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS HIGH
BASED CU HAS BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW, WITH NO PRECIPITATION BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THIS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES RETURNING OVERNIGHT. THESE CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
PROVIDING SOME MIXING/WARMTH, EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT AS WE SAW TO START THE DAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE NE/KS
STATE LINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE FORCING FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DURING THE 4-10 PM TIME FRAME, WITH
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE. THAT SAID, DESPITE RELATIVELY UN-IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
VALUES, GOOD SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A FEW MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZED HAIL AS WELL.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS DEFINITELY FOCUS THE BETTER LOOKING
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES, BUT A SECOND LINE OF
(NON-SEVERE) STORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS WELL.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINING TO MAKE FOR A
RATHER NICE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EAST TO START NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY MARKING THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STARTING ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SEVERAL NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA NEXT WEEK, WITH LIKELY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE CURRENT CPC OUTLOOK FOR
WEEK 2 SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION,
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE TODAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7KFT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF (<20%).
WINDS TODAY TURN FROM THE SW TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THE SPRING FIRE WEATHER
SEASON INTO MAY. ALREADY ON MONDAY, WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S, HUMIDITY IN THE 15-25% RANGE, AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO RESULT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WESTERN AREAS SEE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS FLIP TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE AS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT
POSSIBLY WESTERN ZONES) SEES NOTICABLY LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO APPROACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OF THE TWO DAYS, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST CONCERNING WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...MANGELS
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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