103
FXUS63 KGID 092352
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
652 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80
WILL REMAIN DRY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5%) FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE, NE TO MANKATO, KS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- BEYOND TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK BLEAK UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN NEXT WEEK AS
HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. LATEST MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC INDICATES
THAT THERE IS VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, BUT EVENSO,
WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORM MANAGE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS PAST HOUR. MOST RECENT CAMS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, KEEPING THE MORE EXPLOSIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA, THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE SEEN EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
TRANSITION EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 LATE TONIGHT.
THAT SAID, BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY REACHES THE LOCAL AREA IT
SHOULD BE WEAKENING, AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO STRONGER WIND GUSTS...IF ANY STRONGER
STORMS ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AT ALL. WHILE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE GENERALLY HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS, MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 CAN EXPECT TO SEE LESS THAN 0.10" OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A FEW LUCKY LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES POSSIBLY SEEING CLOSER TO 0.50".
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO THEN IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES
ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S, LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE, SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO RAMP UP FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WARM-UP WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...
HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S WHILE SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUS, EXPECT A DRY AND WARM FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND A WEST COAST LOW TRANSITIONS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW LATE WEEK WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE
EC TAKING IT NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE GFS LIFTING IT NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE FRIDAY. THAT SAID, NEITHER THE GFS OR EC
ENSEMBLES HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME, SO WHILE
THERE ARE SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. WHAT APPEARS MORE CERTAIN IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING MONDAY AND LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
MAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ACROSS THE NEXT AT LEAST
24-HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT SHOULD NOT DROP
CEILINGS BELOW 10,000FT. OTHERWISE, A FEW SHOWERS MAY PASS
THROUGH THE VICINITY BETWEEN 5-9Z (MAINLY ONLY 7-9Z FOR KGRI).
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF IN NATURE AND SHOULD NOT DEPOSIT
MUCH IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
WINDS, CURRENTLY BLOWING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10-15KTS
AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30KTS, WILL NOT STAY LONG TONIGHT. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF AROUND 1-3Z WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS (<10KTS) MAINTAINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS, GENERALLY LIGHTER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (10-15KTS), WILL KEEP DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE EXPECTED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND THE SPRING FIRE
WEATHER SEASON INTO MAY. ALREADY ON MONDAY, WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, HUMIDITY IN THE 15-25% RANGE, AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE TO RESULT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WESTERN AREAS WILL NEED RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
WINDS FLIP TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE AS MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT
POSSIBLY WESTERN ZONES) SEES NOTICABLY LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO APPROACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OF THE TWO DAYS, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST CONCERNING WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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