281
FXUS63 KGID 271101
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
601 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOR MOST LOCATIONS, TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY. CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS STARTING TO WORKING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING NORTH WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY, BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE...FORECAST
CHANCES ARE IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POTENTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CURRENTLY...
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW
THE TWO LARGEST FEATURES BEING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE NV/CA BORDER AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF
THE MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CONUS, TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MAIN LOW DOWN
INTO TX, WHERE A SMALLER VORT MAX SITS...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE DAKOTAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH
THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY AS A TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
IT'LL BE DRY. MODELS SHOWING THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE NM/PANHANDLE OF TX AREA WILL START WORKING
ITS WAY NORTH...BUT DOESN'T MAKE A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF PROGRESS
DUE TO THE BLOCKING OF THAT RIDGING THROUGH EASTERN NE AND INTO
THE DAKOTAS...ROUGHLY REACHING ONLY INTO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
CO/KS BY EARLY-MID EVENING. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND BACK
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY/TONIGHT...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, CHANCES ARE
FOCUSED DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS WSW
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL KS COUNTIES. DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, CURRENT FORECAST CHANCES ONLY INCH FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO WORK INTO A HANDFUL OF NE COUNTIES ALONG THE
STATE LINE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING
LOW. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPTIATION CHANCES...OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE
FORECAST HAVEN'T CHANGED NOTABLY. WILL BE SEEING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SFC PATTERN, WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH POPS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE
(HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS SSWRN HALF OF THE AREA). STILL A FEW
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH AXIS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES...A FEW HAVE
THE AXIS WELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY
THURSDAY, MOST OTHERS ARE SLOWER, SHOWING THE AXIS STILL ONLY
RUNNING NW-SE THROUGH SSW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING-OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY BEING
SCATTERED-SPOTTY IN NATURE, AND WITH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THEIR QPF PLACEMENT, POPS REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT AGAIN LOOKS TO BE LOW...SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK ONLY
HAS GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS SSWRN AREA. WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPTIATION CHANCES, HARD TO HAVE A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW-MID
80S. EXPECTING SIMILAR WINDS TO WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AN ON...
AS WE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FURTHER
OUT IN TIME, THE LOWER THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTING NORTH TODAY-THURSDAY CONTINUES THAT
TREND INTO FRIDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THAT RIDGING RUNNING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BEING SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING NE OUT OF CO/NM
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW (WHICH MODELS SHOW
MOVING INTO UT FRI EVENING-NIGHT), BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THAT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND THE MAIN LOW ITSELF ARE SHOWN BY MODELS TO TAKE
A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT, ENDING UP IN THE NRN ROCKIES/DAKOTAS FOR
SUNDAY. PRECIPTIATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
MORESO SAT-SAT NIGHT THAN SUN-SUN NIGHT...BUT AS STATED UP,
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF ANY OF THIS IS NOT HIGH. A MESSY
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A BATTLE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/DESERT SW
AND LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY SET UP OVER THE PAC NW OR NRN
ROCKIES...QUIET A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH WHICH
FEATURE TAKES OVER...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT IS ALL
STILL BLOCKED UP BY CONSISTENT TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...
IT'S ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 80S, TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING 20-30MPH, STRONGEST ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. WINDS DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY...
ALOFT A CUTOFF LOW WILL SIT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS, AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ATTEMPTS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT QUICKLY GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS, REACHING FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BAND THEN
STALLS OUT AND REMAINS LARGELY STATIONARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WHERE
EXACTLY THIS BAND SETS UP, BUT OVERALL IT FAVORS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE, NE TO OSBORNE, KS. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES, TO THE LOW 90S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WHERE SUNSHINE DOMINATES.
THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS
LIMITS/PREVENTS MUCH MOVEMENT FROM THE BAND, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES AT LEAST SOME NORTHWARDS MOVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. AGAIN,
MODEL SPREAD AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE POSITION/LOCATION OF RAIN ON THURSDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-
CITIES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
THE BAND EVENTUALLY SETS UP. HIGHS ON THURSDAY DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVERAGE/RAIN VS SUN, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S (SOUTHWEST) TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES.
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND MESSY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE CUTOFF LOW REJOINS THE
JETSTREAM. THE RESULT IS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED, LOW CONFIDENCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DETAILS
WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FAVOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING ALOFT, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (HIGHS LOW-MID 80S).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING NORTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT AT LEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THE BETTER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR/ABOVE 12K FT. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...ADP
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