241
FXUS63 KGID 281802
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
102 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE OVERALL
BEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE NOT LOOKING AT A NON-
STOP RAIN-OUT, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR STORMS EACH DAY FRI-SUN.
THERE WILL BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS WE GET INTO SAT-SAT NIGHT, AND ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA.
- FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN HOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS FOR
MODELS TO IRON OUT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND LET ALONE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
CURRENTLY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WORKING THEIR
WAY NORTH INTO EXTREME SSW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...A TREND
THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING ALOFT, DEFINITELY NOT A SIMPLE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CA/NV BORDER...WHILE OVER THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF FL, WITH EASTWARD SHIFTING
TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NORTH/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE PATTERN
REMAINS BLOCKED, AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WE HAVE A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SERN CONUS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
DAKOTAS, WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DRAPED NW-SE ROUGHLY THROUGH
KS/OK. AT THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE TO OUTRIGHT CALM WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE PATTERN TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THAT
NORTHWARD-SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS BEING
PRETTY SLOW-GOING TODAY...THANKS TO THAT RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE DAKOTAS THAT ITSELF IS SLOW TO SHIFT OUT OF THE WAY.
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE SWATH OF ACTIVITY REMAINING LARGELY OVER OUR KS
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PUSHING NORTH TO
ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY, THEN POINTS FURTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE FOR SOME LOCATIONS
IT'LL BE A PRETTY WET/DREARY DAY, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT TIMES...SO PRECIP MAY
BE MORE COME AND GO FOR OTHERS.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES, KEEPING STORMS CHANCES AROUND
EACH DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH TODAY
CONTINUES PUSHING NORTH INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES LOOK TO BE SWINGING THROUGH FROM SW-NE.
MODELS, TO VARYING DEGREES, SHOW THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER CA/NV MAKING MORE OF AN EASTWARD PUSH INLAND...AGAIN VERY
MUCH SLOWED BY THE CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND
RIDGING SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN...THE THE ROUGH PLACEMENT OVER THE
WEAKER BUT STILL BROAD LOW LOOKING TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING AT A NON-STOP RAINOUT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DO HAVE THESE WAVES OF INCREASED STORM
CHANCES MOVING THROUGH EACH DAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
LOOKING TO BE FOCUSED DURING THE LATE DAY-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING ON THE LOWER SIDE
THROUGH FRIDAY, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LACKING
TODAY...THOUGH START TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-60S ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODELS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KTS. STORMS MAY BE DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE DAY FRI-SAT OVER A SFC BOUNDARY THAT MODELS HAVE RUNNING
ROUGHLY THROUGH WESTERN NE DOWN INTO SRN KS THEN PUSH NNE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE EXACT PLACEMENT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP BEING
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, AND WHAT HAPPENS FRI-FRI NIGHT COULD
IMPACT THE PATTERN FOR SATURDAY. STILL PLENTY OF THINGS TO IRON
OUT WITH MODELS...BUT SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
DAY WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK
AREA. THINK SOME STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
FRIDAY.
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK REMAINS WITH
JUST HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENDS UP EVOLVING...WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STUBBORN TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE EAST COAST KEEPING THINGS CLOGGED. THE PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN
CONUS POTENTIALLY SENDING ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...AND
INTERMITTENT, GENERALLY LOW (20-40 PERCENT) PRECIPTIATION
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BLOWING BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL
BECOME A FAMILIAR OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIMILAR
RETURNING CONDITIONS (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS)
WILL COME AS A WESTERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TEMPORARILY SLOWS
DOWN THE FORWARD TRANSLATION OF A NEGATIVE TILTED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LOCK THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH QUITE POSSIBLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN KANSAS REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIMMER NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LATER BE SLUNG UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FIRST STORMS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR A FEW ISOLATED NORTHERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA LOCATIONS (20-50% CHANCES, GREATEST TO THE SOUTHWEST). ANY
ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY
BRINGING THE FULL AREA UP TO A 20-60% PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOCATIONS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPOTTY TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIKELY
OFF-AND-ON PERIODS OF WET AND DRY CONDITIONS (POTENTIALLY MORE DRY
THAN WET PERIODS). ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN LITTLE AVAILABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
(<1,000J/KG OF MUCAPE).
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMNEST HIGH-RES MODELS CAPTURE A OVERNIGHT LULL
IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE LATEST 12Z HRRR RUN IS
QUICKER TO CLEAR OUT THE PRECIPITATION (AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME). EITHER
WAY, PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY RECEIVING LESS THAN
0.25" (<0.1" NORTH OF I-80) OF PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION (UP TO 0.5") SHOULD FALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS
OF WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY STAY BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH OR EAST WITH
STEADY AFTERNOON WINDS RANGING MAINLY BETWEEN 10-15MPH AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH (GUSTIEST WINDS TO COME
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON).
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BREAK OUT OF ITS CURRENT STALLED/BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON QUESTION AS FOR NOW. AT
LEAST A WEAK POP (20-30%+) RETURNS DAILY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ACROSS THE LONG TERM-FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST POTENTIAL OVERALL
CURRENTLY LIES FRIDAY NIGHT (25-60% CHANCES), SATURDAY (40-70%) AND
SUNDAY (40-50%).
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS (GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
AROUND THE DAY-6 (MONDAY) PERIOD BEGINS TO SHOW TWO DIVERGING
SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE LEADING SOLUTION (WEIGHTING
MORE TOWARDS THE GEFS MEMBERS) SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGING
PATTERN (LONGER LASTING BLOCKING FLOW). THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE TEMPERATE (LESS EXTREME) TEMPERATURE
SWINGS NEXT WEEK. THE ALTERNATE (SECOND LEADING) SOLUTION (WIGHTED
MORE TOWARDS THE ENS MEMBERS), SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN AND THUS A QUICKER TO UNBLOCK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIPITATION WITH MORE NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KEAR 1-3 HOURS AHEAD OF KGRI.CURRENT VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO HIGHER END MVFR BETWEEN 20-1Z THEN TO
LOWER MVFR BETWEEN 0-3Z, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO IFR AROUND
6Z. CEILINGS COULD TO START TO RECOVER AROUND 16Z, LIFTING BACK
INTO MVFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
DECREASING TO MVFR WITH EARLY RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 6Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 23-12Z. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AROUND 3Z THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULDN'T CHANGE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 8-12 KTS EXPECTED,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCOTT
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