894
FXUS63 KGID 282203
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
503 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, CLEARING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
- A FEW SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT (30-70% CHANCES, BEST POTENTIAL TO
THE NORTHEAST). A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1/5)
COVERS THE FULL FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
- AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (THOUGH NEXT THURSDAY). DETAILS
REGARDING TIMING, LOCATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAIN LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE THE 70S
AND 80S THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING..
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. GENERALLY SPEAKING, PRECIPITATION RATES, THOUGH OFF AND ON
AT TIMES, SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MORE
CONCENTRATED PRECIPITATION BANDS MIGRATE NORTHWARD (CURRENTLY
RESINING OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). THE HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THESE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE FRIDAY MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE
ORDER IN WHICH THEY ARRIVED, CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN TOTAL, AROUND 0.2-0.5" OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FALL NORTH OF I-80, WITH 0.3-0.7" POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEBRASKA LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 0.5" TO JUST OVER 1".
THOUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRY,
OVERCAST SKIES WILL STILL STICK AROUND THE AREA, KEEPING HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, LIGHTENING ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON, SPEEDS WILL RETURN BACK TO A STEADY 10-15MPH BREEZE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH. ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE WEST TO EAST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE, A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HAS BEEN CHANNELING THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UP TO AND AROUND THIS NORTHERN PLAINS
STRETCHING RIDGE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, RIDING THIS FLOW
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STIRRING UP
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....
DESPITE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING, A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
BRINGS A 30-65% CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
CONFIDENCE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. A SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS (35-70%,
GREATEST TO THE NORTHEAST) WILL COME AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT FROM THE ROCKIES.
THE PRESENCE OF A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY (2,000-4,000J/KG OF MUCAPE) COULD BRING A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE DEVELOPING STORMS
(MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...LEVEL 1/5). YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO LOCATION AND COVERAGE KEEPS THE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
FOR NOW (25-50% CHANCES).
HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RAISE UP TO THE 80S AS THE OVERCAST SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE AS DIRECTIONS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR SOUTHEASTERLY ORIENTATION. ALOFT, THE END
OF WEEK WESTERN U.S. LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
SOME. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AWAY FROM MERIDIONAL
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE CURRENT WET AND STORMY WEEKEND CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, MAY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AS BACK TO BACK
PASSAGES OF EMBED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TAKE THEIR SWINGS AT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY AND BEYOND....
DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.
WITH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SPECIFICS
REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THOUGH AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY (15-30%), SOME GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO HINT AT THE TRANSITION TO AN EXPANSIVE RIDGING UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN SOMETIME NEAR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
ACTUALIZES, DRIER CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. THE
OVERALL T-STORM THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW (BELOW 30%), ALTHOUGH
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP, MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND 06Z, AND COULD DIP
TO IFR BY 12Z FRIDAY. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20KTS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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