389
FXUS63 KGID 291139
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING.
IF STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCATTERED RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALOFT A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST DUE TO A DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAPPED BENEATH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IN
ASSOCIATION, RAIN CHANCES (30-80%) LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS BROADER
RAIN SHIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STEADIEST/HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (NORTHEAST OF A HEBRON-ORD LINE). ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/NE MAY MOVE INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THOUGH AT THIS TIME MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND...
ALOFT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO MOVE DEEPER INTO THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SKIES CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT IN PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8 C/KM) RESULTS IN CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
2000-3000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS ALONG THE
DRYLINE/WARM FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS. MODEST CAPPING
SHOULD LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE. IF/WHEN
STORMS DO DEVELOP, CAPE AND SHEAR (30KTS) ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, CAPPING AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP STORMS
FAIRLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED. STILL, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG-SEVERE.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY UNDER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. NEAR-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING..
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. GENERALLY SPEAKING, PRECIPITATION RATES, THOUGH OFF AND ON
AT TIMES, SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MORE
CONCENTRATED PRECIPITATION BANDS MIGRATE NORTHWARD (CURRENTLY
RESINING OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). THE HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THESE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE FRIDAY MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE
ORDER IN WHICH THEY ARRIVED, CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN TOTAL, AROUND 0.2-0.5" OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FALL NORTH OF I-80, WITH 0.3-0.7" POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEBRASKA LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 0.5" TO JUST OVER 1".
THOUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRY,
OVERCAST SKIES WILL STILL STICK AROUND THE AREA, KEEPING HIGHS FROM
EXCEEDING THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, LIGHTENING ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON, SPEEDS WILL RETURN BACK TO A STEADY 10-15MPH BREEZE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH. ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE WEST TO EAST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. MEANWHILE, A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UP
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HAS BEEN CHANNELING THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UP TO AND AROUND THIS NORTHERN PLAINS
STRETCHING RIDGE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, RIDING THIS FLOW
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STIRRING UP
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY....
DESPITE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING, A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
BRINGS A 30-65% CHANCE FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH THE BEST
CONFIDENCE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. A SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS (35-70%,
GREATEST TO THE NORTHEAST) WILL COME AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT FROM THE ROCKIES.
THE PRESENCE OF A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY (2,000-4,000J/KG OF MUCAPE) COULD BRING A SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE DEVELOPING STORMS
(MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...LEVEL 1/5). YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO LOCATION AND COVERAGE KEEPS THE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
FOR NOW (25-50% CHANCES).
HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RAISE UP TO THE 80S AS THE OVERCAST SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL ALSO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE AS DIRECTIONS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR SOUTHEASTERLY ORIENTATION. ALOFT, THE END
OF WEEK WESTERN U.S. LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
SOME. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AWAY FROM MERIDIONAL
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE CURRENT WET AND STORMY WEEKEND CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, MAY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AS BACK TO BACK
PASSAGES OF EMBED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TAKE THEIR SWINGS AT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM...MONDAY AND BEYOND....
DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.
WITH LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SPECIFICS
REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OR EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THOUGH AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY (15-30%), SOME GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO HINT AT THE TRANSITION TO AN EXPANSIVE RIDGING UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN SOMETIME NEAR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
ACTUALIZES, DRIER CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS WILL RISE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SOMETIME DURING THE
LATE MORNING- EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES COULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR MVFR
STRATUS TO BECOME BRIEFLY SCT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LOW MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE COULD BE A SHIFT TO IFR
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE A FM GROUP.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A BREAK IN RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THE EVENING-EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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