927
FXUS63 KGID 300011
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
711 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF STORMS
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND 60 MPH WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (MAINLY 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE, BUT THESE ARE
MOSTLY EXITING THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST, EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE INBETWEEN DISTURBANCES...WITH THESE BREAKS
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON
THIS DISTURBANCE ALL DAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA, SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT SAID, A
FEW PULSY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
AREAS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COVERAGE AREA. WHILE THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE LOCAL AREA AROUND DAYBREAK,
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO HANG ON TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, SO GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
THE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL THEN CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP, LITTLE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO GET SOME ACTIVITY GOING BY EARLY
EVENING, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN, SHEAR IS WEAK. GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY, COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS, AND KEPT THE WORDING FOR PING PONG POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE HWO.
THEREAFTER...A MESSY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S (NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR LATE MAY/EARLY
JUNE).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TONIGHT: MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, LATE OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODELS BRING THESE
IN AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z. GIVEN SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON
OVERALL COVERAGE, ORGANIZATION, AND INTENSITY, KEPT THIS
POTENTIAL AS A PROB30 GROUP. WILL NEED TO TEMPO IT IF LATEST
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. OTHER THAN THE STORMS, MAY ALSO
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MVFR, TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY IFR (MAINLY
GRI) CIGS OUT OF AHEAD OF THE STORMS. COULD SEE SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBYS, AS WELL, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MVFR. STORMS
SHOULD MIX UP THE LOW LEVEL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING WORSE
THAN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND DAWN. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS, WINDS WILL BE MODEST OUT OF THE ESE/SE AROUND
7-13KT. CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY MEDIUM, BUT LOW ON EXACT CIG/VSBY.
SATURDAY: MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE DRY, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYTIME DURING THE
MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT/RAISE BY LATE AM
OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCR AND BEC BREEZY OUT OF THE SE,
SUSTAINED 15-20KT, AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...THIES
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