457
FXUS63 KGID 300544
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1244 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IF STORMS
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND 60 MPH WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (MAINLY 80S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE, BUT THESE ARE
MOSTLY EXITING THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST, EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE INBETWEEN DISTURBANCES...WITH THESE BREAKS
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON
THIS DISTURBANCE ALL DAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA, SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT SAID, A
FEW PULSY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
AREAS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COVERAGE AREA. WHILE THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE LOCAL AREA AROUND DAYBREAK,
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO HANG ON TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, SO GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
THE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL THEN CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP, LITTLE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO GET SOME ACTIVITY GOING BY EARLY
EVENING, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN, SHEAR IS WEAK. GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY, COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS, AND KEPT THE WORDING FOR PING PONG POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE HWO.
THEREAFTER...A MESSY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S (NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR LATE MAY/EARLY
JUNE).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A THUNDERSTORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KEAR, WHERE GUSTS AROUND
25KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STORM. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IMPACT KGRI AS WELL.
THE STORM COULD ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR (IFR CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KEAR). BEHIND THE
CURRENT STORM, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS, BUT ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH A DEVELOPING
MVFR-IFR STRATUS DECK, KEEPING IT WELL NORTH OF KEAR, AND CLOSE
TO KGRI. BASED ON THIS, HAVE KEPT KEAR/KGRI PREVAILING VFR,
WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. IF THE STRATUS DECK DOES
END UP FURTHER SOUTH, IT IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KGRI SKIES
CLEAR/SCATTER AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANY SCT- BKN MVFR STRATUS
ENDING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED MID- MORNING THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 8-10KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15-20KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. AROUND SUNSET, WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE, THOUGH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page