895
FXUS63 KGID 302033
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HAIL TO AROUND 2
INCHES, WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO (MAIN
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS) ALL POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
FAVORING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (AVERAGING
ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING AS CU IS JUST STARTING TO GET AGITATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. DESPITE FAIRLY MARGINAL
SHEAR, THIS CU WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED (AND
VERY STRONG) INSTABILITY WHICH WILL HELP FUEL EXPLOSIVE GROWTH
AS THEY TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY FAVOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS
THE STORMS EXPAND AND MERGE, BUT IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
REMAIN DISCRETE, AN ISOLATED TORNADO (AS ADVERTISED BY SPC) WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS ONLY
ONE AREA OF CONCERN, AND A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. EVENTUALLY, THESE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY MERGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THESE LINES OF STORMS MERGE,
THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT,
WITH SOME POSSIBLE SUB-SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT HINTED AT IN ITS
WAKE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTH
TOWARD MONTANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERING ADDITION WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET, THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC, MAINLY EVENING/NIGHT-TIME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. OVERALL, THE BEST SHOT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION TODAY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE A LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WORK THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE AREA AROUND 31/01-31/03Z. AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THEM AS WELL. COULD
SEE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LINE
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND KEPT PROB30 GROUPS GOING THROUGH 31/07-31/09
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIKELY LINGER AS THE
LINE OF STORMS TRACKS AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES LIKELY NEAR THE TAIL END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GUSTY (TO NEAR 30
KTS) OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, DIMINISHING TO 10 KTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING - OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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