000
FXUS63 KGID 312051
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TONIGHT WITH A WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS COULD
REACH 90 DEGREES IN SPOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR
SEVERE.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BOUNCING AROUND THE 80S WHILE REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY (ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 TONIGHT, MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP ANY CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR TONIGHT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO COMBINE TO FORM A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG FORMATION TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY. THAT SAID, BOTH
THE HRRR AND THE SREF PROBS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD LIE
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL LINGER, SO
OPTED AGAINST INTRODUCING LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY MONDAY,
ALBEIT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME FOG DID WORK ITS WAY
TOWARDS THAYER, JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, LATE IN THE DAY, EXPECT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR, COULD SEE SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS EARLY ON IN THE EVENT FAVORING OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, LIKELY FAVORING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
WITH A "MESSY" WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM) TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THOSE DETAILS WILL BE ADDRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THOSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT THE BKN CLOUD DECK NEAR 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE
TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 15 KFT SPILL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS MONDAY, BUT THESE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT. VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE GOOD AND WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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