807
FXUS63 KGID 010604
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
104 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FOR MOST PLACES MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH A WARM START
TO THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR AREA TODAY,
BUT COULD TOUCH 90 IN A FEW SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING-
OVERNIGHT (MON NIGHT-TUES AM). A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BOUNCING AROUND THE 80S WHILE REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY (ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 TONIGHT, MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP ANY CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR TONIGHT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO COMBINE TO FORM A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG FORMATION TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY. THAT SAID, BOTH
THE HRRR AND THE SREF PROBS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD LIE
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL LINGER, SO
OPTED AGAINST INTRODUCING LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY MONDAY,
ALBEIT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME FOG DID WORK ITS WAY
TOWARDS THAYER, JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, LATE IN THE DAY, EXPECT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR, COULD SEE SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS EARLY ON IN THE EVENT FAVORING OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, LIKELY FAVORING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
WITH A "MESSY" WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM) TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THOSE DETAILS WILL BE ADDRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THOSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH
DRY AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE, AS ASIDE FROM ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MAINLY
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD (SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT
POSSIBILITY), SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT-OR-BELOW 12KT
AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. DIRECTION WILL START
OUT MAINLY VARIABLE (WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS) EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN GRADUALLY TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAYTIME-EVENING HOURS.
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL (THE MAIN
CAVEATS TO PREVAILING VFR):
RIGHT AWAY THROUGH AROUND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING,
PROBABLY CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THAT COULD TRY
TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO SUB-VFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY. HOWEVER, THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO OMIT FROM FORMAL TAF
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
TURNING TO RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, FIRST OF ALL THERE IS A
LOW (CURRENTLY DEEMED 10-20%) CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR
MAYBE EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER,
THIS CHANCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. OF SOMEWHAT GREATER
PROBABILITY...ALBEIT STILL FAR FROM A "SURE THING"...IS THE
CHANCE THAT A POTENTIALLY LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST VERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS (30+KT), MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL...STARTING 03Z KEAR/04Z KGRI.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page