623
FXUS63 KGID 010942
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE #1 STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE SEVERAL/INTERMITTENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH CARRY
CONSIDERABLE DAY-TO-DAY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LIKELIHOOD,
AREAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY.
- THAT BEING SAID, SPC HAS ASSIGNED AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (CWA) A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (MAINLY FOR THE EVENING
HOURS)...WITH MUCH OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN HALF CURRENTLY UNDER A
LEVEL-2 SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS EVENING-TONIGHT.
- ALTHOUGH NOT PRESENTLY A MAJOR CONCERN (AND LIKELY TO BE
WELCOMED IN MOST PLACES!) MUCH OF OUR CWA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE AT LEAST 1-2" OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS AT LEAST 3-4" A DECENT BET
WHEREVER HEAVIER STORMS TRACK. WHILE MOST PLACES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WITH MINIMAL
FLOODING CONCERN, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES IN KS THAT SAW
AT LEAST 3-5" OF RAIN IN RECENT DAYS.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: CERTAINLY NOTHING UNUSUAL THESE NEXT 7 DAYS
BY EARLY-JUNE STANDARDS. ALTHOUGH OFFICIALLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL/AVERAGE (ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS)...MOST DAYS
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S/MOST NIGHTS LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- NO TRULY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SPEAK OF VERSUS OUR PREVIOUS
7-DAY FORECAST ISSUANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- EXPANDING UPON THE FIRST POINT MADE IN KEY MESSAGES ABOVE,
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AFFECTING AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE OVERALL WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE
NATURE OF THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING THROUGH IN
PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (IN OTHER WORDS, NO
"MAJOR" LARGE- SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH)
CERTAINLY LENDS ITSELF TO LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECASTS IN TERMS
OF THE DETAILS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE/INTENSITY ETC.). IN SOME WAYS, IT'S A
"TAKE IT ONE DAY AT A TIME" PATTERN WE'RE IN...ONE WHERE YOU
DON'T WANT TO GET TOO HUNG UP ON DETAILS BEYOND ESPECIALLY
24-48 HOURS.
-- FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS (THROUGH
TUES NIGHT/EARLY WED AM):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
ALTHOUGH WE HAD A FEW ISOLATED AND SLIGHTLY-SURPRISING (BUT
FORTUNATELY WEAK) THUNDERSTORMS FLARE UP IN MAINLY OUR EAST-
CENTRAL COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY, THIS VERY SPOTTY
CONVECTION HAS LONG SINCE DEPARTED, LEAVING US IN THE MIDST OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE OVERALL-DRIEST/QUIETEST NIGHT WE'LL SEE
FOR A WHILE.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT WE ARE IN A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN
A PARADE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH OUR
REGION...THESE WAVES DIRECTED BETWEEN LARGER SCALE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A LARGER SCALE (BUT NOT
HIGH AMPLITUDE) HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OUR ENTIRE CWA IS CURRENTLY ALMOST PRISTINELY CLEAR AT THIS
TIME, BUT THE LEADING EDGES OF INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ABOUT TO ARRIVE INTO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK GRADIENT IS PROMOTING VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE
DIRECTION WINDS (MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS), ALTHOUGH A VERY WEAK
FRONT MARKED BY A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION IS ARRIVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE COMBO OF CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS IS
ALLOWING SOME PATCHY/MAINLY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR/WIDESPREAD ISSUE FOR THE AM
COMMUTE AND IS ACTUALLY NOT EVEN IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
- TODAY (THROUGH 7-8 PM):
UNDER GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AT LEAST THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND EXPERIENCE
SIMPLY A SEASONABLY-WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 83-89
(POSSIBLY A FEW SOUTHERN SPOTS TRYING TO TAG 90). ALTHOUGH
STARTING OFF VERY LIGHT, WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
(ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON) WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AS DIRECTION
SHIFTS FROM MORE NORTHERLY TO MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. AGAIN,
EXPECTING IT TO STAY DRY FOR MOST PLACES TODAY, BUT A WEAK WAVE
PASSING THROUGH MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHERN NE COULD SPARK ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS/MAYBE WEAK STORMS...MAINLY
WITHIN THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (AFTER 7-8 PM):
AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER WAVE EMERGES OUT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID, THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY IS STILL IN
QUESTION EVEN AT THIS CLOSER RANGE, WITH OFTEN MORE
"CONVECTIVELY AGGRESSIVE" HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS NAMNEST
SHOWING ONLY MAINLY OUR FAR WEST-SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SEEING
RELATIVELY WEAK STORMS, WHILE THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
MORE AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING A LARGER-SCALE LINE OR COMPLEX OF
STORMS TO FIRE UP SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA AND THEN
CHARGE INTO ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/3 TO MAYBE 1/2 OF OUR
CWA FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY (INTO THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA), BEFORE
WEAKENING AND TURNING INTO MORE OF A BROAD RAIN-WITH-EMBEDDED-
WEAKER-STORMS EVENT THAT COULD LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT, WITH CONVECTION FED BY A GRADUALLY-VEERING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET (LLJ). AT THIS TIME, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TRULY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT INTO OUR WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT
THE SLIGHT RISK IS PROBABLY JUSTIFIED GIVEN A COMBO OF
GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 35+KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THE MAIN THREATS (IN ORDER OF CONCERN) APPEAR TO BE
WIND GUSTS TO ~ 60 MPH, HAIL PERHAPS UP TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR
SIZE (LIKELY THE EXCEPTION), AND THEN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OF AT
LEAST 1-2" WITH POSSIBLE NUISANCE FLOODING (STORM MODE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT). IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
THE MOST INTENSE STORM CORES SKIRT JUST WEST-THROUGH-SOUTH OF
OUR CWA...RIDING ALONG THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS, AND WITH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF ANY LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LLJ AXIS. ASSUMING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AREAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION DEPICTED BY THE HRRR DOES MATERIALIZE, HOPEFULLY
THIS IS MOSTLY JUST A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT FOR MOST OF OUR CWA,
AND HOPEFULLY NOT TOO MUCH IN A FEW PLACES (ESPECIALLY PARTS OF
OSBORNE/MITCHELL COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAD 3-5" OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS). LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE AIMED A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
60.
- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
LEANING HEAVILY ON HIGHER-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS FROM
NAMNEST/HRRR, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED WEAKER STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
AT SUNRISE (ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN HALF)...BUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN STEADILY VACATING/DISSIPATING OFF TO OUR SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING...PAVING THE WAY FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY (MAYBE COMPLETELY?) DRY AFTERNOON. UNDER SKIES THAT
SHOULD BECOME NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON,
HIGH TEMPS ARE AIMED A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...MOST PLACES LOW
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH.
- TUESDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
DETAILS ARE STILL PLENTY MURKY, BUT THIS COULD BE A "MINI
REPEAT" OF TONIGHT'S SETUP AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT KICKS OUT FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, BUT "IN THEORY" WITH A LITTLE LESS
INSTABILITY AND MORE-SO DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR TO WORK WITH. THE
LATEST NAMNEST SHOWS FAIRLY WEAK/SCATTERED STORM POTENTIAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER OUR CWA, WHILE THE LATE HOURS OF
THE 06Z HRRR SUGGEST ANOTHER COMPLEX OF AT LEAST SOMEWHAT-STRONG
STORMS COULD BE ENTERING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AND JUST TO THROW ONE MORE POSSIBILITY INTO THE "MURKY
MIX, THE 00Z RRFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT ALL WITHIN OUR
CWA. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, CANNOT ARGUE TOO MUCH AGAINST SPC
ASSIGNING ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 1/3 OF OUR CWA A MARGINAL RISK FOR
THE LATER EVENING-OVERNIGHT. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS ARE AIMED VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...MOST PLACES 57-60.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 TONIGHT, MOST OF THE
MODELS KEEP ANY CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR TONIGHT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO COMBINE TO FORM A FAIRLY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG FORMATION TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY. THAT SAID, BOTH
THE HRRR AND THE SREF PROBS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD LIE
MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL LINGER, SO
OPTED AGAINST INTRODUCING LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY MONDAY,
ALBEIT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SOME FOG DID WORK ITS WAY
TOWARDS THAYER, JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MONDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN, LATE IN THE DAY, EXPECT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE
EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR, COULD SEE SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS EARLY ON IN THE EVENT FAVORING OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS, LIKELY FAVORING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
WITH A "MESSY" WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER (YET STILL SEASONABLY WARM) TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. THOSE DETAILS WILL BE ADDRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THOSE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH
DRY AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE, AS ASIDE FROM ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MAINLY
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD (SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT
POSSIBILITY), SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT-OR-BELOW 12KT
AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. DIRECTION WILL START
OUT MAINLY VARIABLE (WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS) EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN GRADUALLY TURN FROM NORTHERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAYTIME-EVENING HOURS.
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AND LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL (THE MAIN
CAVEATS TO PREVAILING VFR):
RIGHT AWAY THROUGH AROUND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING,
PROBABLY CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THAT COULD TRY
TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO SUB-VFR AT LEAST BRIEFLY. HOWEVER, THIS
APPEARS TO BE A LOW ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO OMIT FROM FORMAL TAF
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
TURNING TO RAIN/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, FIRST OF ALL THERE IS A
LOW (CURRENTLY DEEMED 10-20%) CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR
MAYBE EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER,
THIS CHANCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. OF SOMEWHAT GREATER
PROBABILITY...ALBEIT STILL FAR FROM A "SURE THING"...IS THE
CHANCE THAT A POTENTIALLY LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST VERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS, A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS (30+KT), MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL...STARTING 03Z KEAR/04Z KGRI.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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