852
FXUS63 KGID 021743
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
- THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY, LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS EAST-NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY DRY FROM ROUGHLY LATE
MORNING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES KEEP THE TRAIN OF DAYS WITH
STORM CHANCES INTACT MID-LATE WEEK...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A NON-
STOP RAINOUT. MAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE LATE DAY/EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
CENTRAL NE/KS IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A COUPLE OF MCVS, ONE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, THE
OTHER MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. RADAR OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO
HAS ALSO SHOWN A RAMP UP IN AN ARC OF STORMS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL/WESTERN KS INTO EASTERN CO...LINED UP ACROSS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET.
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING EAST...AND WHILE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION, THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. LOOKING AT A
BROADER PICTURE ACROSS THE CONUS, THE DISTURBANCE THAT HELPED
SPARK THE INITIAL ACTIVITY OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS EMBEDDED
IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING NEAR THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER (AND SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING TROUGHING) AND RIDGING EXTENDING NNE FROM TX INTO
ONTARIO. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THIS PATTERN
CONTINUING TO BE SLOW TO MOVE/ BLOCKED UP BY STUBBORN TROUGHING
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ESERLY THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE SAT EAST OF THE
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESURE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT AS THIS
ACTIVITY AS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH, VARIOUS STORM-DRIVEN
BOUNDARIES HAVE MADE FOR A MESSY PATTERN AND WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU'RE LOCATED.
TODAY/TONIGHT...
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE PRETTY
SLOW TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA, AND A FEW MODELS SUGGEST IT
NEVER TRULY DOES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF WHERE A SUBTLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MAY BE LINGERING AROUND. HIGH
PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME...BUT HAVE FAIRLY BROAD 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE DRY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW 80S EXPECTED.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS SHOWING YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS...SPARKING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
SFC TROUGHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS, AIDED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPING
UP TO AROUND 35-40KTS. MAIN QUESTION WILL AGAIN BE HOW MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE MAINTAINED FURTHER EAST, AND THE TIMING.
BEST CHANCES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE LATE EVENING ON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ON THE
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE, THOUGH ACTIVITY THE FURTHER EAST
IT GOES MODELS SHOW IT MOVING INTO WEAKER SHEAR. AREAS FROM
VALLEY COUNTY NE TO ROOKS COUNTY KS AND WEST ARE INCLUDED IN THE
SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MID-LATE WEEK...
MODELS FINALLY START SHOWING A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...BUT IT REMAINS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE'S NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY, STILL MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THAT
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WITH RIDGING EXPANDING
ACROSS MORE OF THE MIDWEST...THEN THU-FRI THAT RIDGING GETS
BROKEN DOWN AND FLOW IS MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES CONTINUE MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH...DRIVING THE CONTINUATION OF SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT NOT LOOKING AT A NON-STOP RAINOUT,
IT'S JUST DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO. THE BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS
LOOK TO BE DURING THAT TYPICAL LATE DAY-EVENING-OVERNIGHT TIME
FRAME. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO LINGER, BUT
AGAIN HARD TO HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS FURTHER
OUT...WEDNESDAY DOES REMAIN PART OF THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK
AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE SWINGS
EITHER WAY...AND THINGS COULD BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY ANY
ACTIVITY THAT HAPPENS TO LINGER FURTHER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS.
AT THIS POINT FORECAST HIGHS WED-SAT REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAKENED AS THEY TRACKED
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH EYES THEN
TURNING WEST WHERE THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY STARTING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MODELS TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING A FAIRLY
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SHOULD REACH OUR
WESTERN AREAS BY AROUND 8 PM...AND LIKELY THE TRI-CITIES CLOSER
TO 10PM. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS EMBEDDED
IN THIS CLUSTER, HAIL TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS LATER IN
THE EVENT. CURRENTLY, WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR WESTERN AREAS AND A MORE MARGINAL RISK FROM ROUGHLY
THE TRI-CITIES AND TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
THIS EVENT.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT, SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE...LIKELY FED BY
A SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ...WHICH COULD KEEP THINGS ACTIVE IN SPOTS
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY
MIDDAY, HOWEVER, WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON IN STORE
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT, WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN AND THE LACK OF STRONG OR PERSISTENT RIDGING, MOST DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS SHOULD HAVE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY DRIVEN BY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY
FLOW AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LACK OF REALLY
STRONG SHEAR ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY, TRYING TO TIME SEVERE
CHANCES BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT, ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME NEAR OR IMPACT KGRI THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO COME NEAR OR IMPACT
KEAR BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LOW CEILINGS
MAY IMPACT BOTH KEAR AND KGRI BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. DID NOT INCLUDE THE LOW CEILINGS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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