647
FXUS63 KGID 030615
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
115 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG) ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- VARIOUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW/MID 80S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 10
PM. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO SMITH CENTER. SOME STRONG STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY LOW LAPSE
RATES AND WIND SHEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOW/MID 60S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. STORMS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES MOVE
OVER THE AREA. SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2,500 TO NEAR 3,500
J/KG ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY WITH VALUES OF AROUND 25 TO 40 KNOTS. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 5.5 AND AROUND 7 DEGREES C/KM. THE
HIGHEST VALUES OF ALL THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS WILL GENERALLY
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2 OUTLOOK. ANY SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT IS MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CANNOT OUT RULE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. VARIOUS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS TROUGHS PASS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IS UNKNOWN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS TIME
GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES LURKING IN THE DETAILS,
LATEST TAFS RUN WITH PREVAILING VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM-FREE
CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME (THE MAIN CHANCES
SHOULD MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
EVENING) . THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A "SNEAKY"
MVFR CEILING PERHAPS TRYING TO SETTLE IN AT LEAST BRIEFLY MAINLY
AFTER SUNRISE TODAY, AND THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT SPOTTY
CONVECTION COULD SNEAK INTO THE AREA WELL-BEFORE EVENING. AS FOR
WINDS (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INFLUENCES), THINGS SEEM FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD, WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DIRECTION PREVAILING THROUGHOUT.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BOTH EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD
PREVAIL AT-OR-BELOW 12KT, WITH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST BREEZES
FOCUSED 16-01Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ROUGHLY 15KT/GUSTS
20-25KT.
- CEILING UNCERTAINTIES AND MVFR POTENTIAL:
THOUGH ONLY CONSIDERED A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME, THERE ARE SOME INCREASING HINTS IN SOME MODEL DATA THAT AT
LEAST BRIEF/INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILING COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING THE 12-16Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD GROUPS TO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY.
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM UNCERTAINTY:
WE REMAIN IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT BREEDS LOWER-THAN-USUAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING
LIKELIHOOD/PLACEMENT/INTENSITY. IN FACT, THERE IS A VERY LOW
(BUT NON-ZERO) CHANCE THAT CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST
NE COULD CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND BE IN AT LEAST THE
GENERAL AREA OF KEAR/KGRI AS SOON AS 13-14Z. HOWEVER, THIS IS
CURRENTLY CONSIDERED A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT SPOTTY CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THE
GENERAL AREA DURING HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON (ALSO CONSIDERED
TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY FOR TAF INCLUSION). FINALLY, THE "MORE
LIKELY" SCENARIO IS FOR ANY ISOLATED/SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 01-02Z AS INCREASING UPPER LIFT ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS "MORE LIKELY" SCENARIO IS
STILL LOWER-CONFIDENCE, SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AT
THIS TIME. IF ANY STORMS DO IMPACT KGRI/KEAR, SEVERE WEATHER IS
FAIRLY UNLIKELY, BUT GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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