625
FXUS63 KGID 071028
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER. ISOLATED SHOWER/WEAK
STORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY E OF HWY 281.
- MARGINAL RISKS (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- HOT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S TO
LOWER 100S. HEAT INDICES MAY PEAK NEAR 105F IN SPOTS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FOR TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW (CLEARLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
SPINNING IN S KS) WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SW TO
NE...BECOMING A BIT NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN E KS INTO SE NE. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (I.E. HWY 81 CORRIDOR) THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXPECTED UPPER LOW
TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THINK MOST OF THE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG/E OF HWY 281. LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME NON-SUPERCELL FUNNEL CLOUDS GIVEN
THE AMBIENT ATMOSPHERIC VORTICITY AND DECENT 0-3KM CAPE, BUT
THINK EVEN MOST OF THIS SHOULD FAVOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. ANY ISOLATED CELLS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
DEEP TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD...BUT FORTUNATELY, THE CELLS SHOULD
BE SMALL AND ISOLATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE DOWNPOURS FAIRLY
BRIEF FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TODAY
HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER - GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
EXPECT DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AND SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW.
BRUNT OF THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY, THOUGH
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
SKIRTING FAR W/NW ZONES IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS ISOLATED SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NW...OR A SUBTLE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND CONDITIONAL - OWING TO WEAK
FORCING/SUPPORT ALOFT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF
POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES. MONDAY AFTERNOON REPRESENTS A "LOW
PROBABILITY, BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT" TYPE OF SETUP GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR. MOST LIKELY WON'T GET
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL, BUT IF THERE IS, WOULD EXPECT SIG HAIL.
MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WOULD BE FOR AN MCS TO ROLL IN FROM THE W LATE MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE, AND MOST MODELS DEVELOP A
HEALTHY LLJ DURING THE LATE EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT
RISK OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IS
MOST LIKELY AMIDST FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE. SAME CAMS THEN GROW THIS ACTIVITY UPSCALE
OVER NE COLORADO AND W NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ASSUMING THAT INDEED HAPPENS, HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT
WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO MOVE RIGHT ON INTO OUR AREA AROUND/AFTER
SUNSET WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AS SUCH, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE DAY 2
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO, IF MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.
MONDAY HAS SOME SIGNS OF BEING A POTENTIALLY "SNEAKY" SEVERE
WEATHER DAY, DEPENDING ON HOW SOME DETAILS LINE UP...SO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOLLOWING SOME LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A FEW MAINLY NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, OBSERVED SPOTS OF MINOR FLOODING
AND FULL/OVERFLOWING STREAM/RIVER BEDS PROMPT THE NEED TO CONTINUE
THE AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
COUNTIES (HAMILTON, YORK, CLAY, FILMORE, NUCKOLLS AND THAYER) UNTIL
AT LEAST TONIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE ONGOING
FLOODING, PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
TODAY WE FIND OURSELVES UNDERNEATH SPLIT FLOW AS BROAD RIDGING
COVERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCE DOWN SOUTH WILL BE EXPECTED TO
TAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UP TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. OUTER PRECIPITATION BANDS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY
SLIDE BY A FEW SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. A FEW WEAK (NON-SEVERE) STORMS WILL LIKELY POP UP BETWEEN 4-
10PM ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA (AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITOES). AS THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF A "HIT OR MISS"
AND HIGHLY SCATTERED RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE, POPS FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE (10-30% FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA, MAINLY LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM GENEVA, NE TO RED CLOUD, NE TO PLAINVILLE, KS).
FOR SUNDAY, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS WILL DISPERSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (MAINLY AREAS EAST OF HWY-
281) WITH UP TO 30-50% POPS HOVERING ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGES OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL COOL DOWN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. OVERCAST SKIES FILLING IN ACROSS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LATER MORNING TO
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY (CLOUDS MAKING UP THE OUTER CIRRUS
SHIELD OF THE SOUTHEAST PASSING DISTURBANCE). HIGHS FOR SUNDAY,
DESPITE THE PARTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE, SHOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...MONDAY AND BEYOND
A NORTHWEST LOCATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE, LATER RETUNING THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLIES BY MONDAY. A QUICK PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON
MONDAY MAY THROW A FEW MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE AREA (25-50%).
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD RETURN TO A LIMITED (SOUTHWEST)
PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
FROM WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD ADD SOME EXTRA INTENSITY TO A FEW
STORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
CONTINUES TO BRING AT LEAST A LIMITED AFTERNOON TO NIGHTTIME POP UP
STORM CHANCE TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE DAILY CHANCES
COME FROM INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
UNFOLD (WHEN A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEATING UP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS
TRANSITION FROM THE 80S ON MONDAY TO THE 90S AND LOW 100S ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY (HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES). THIS
WARM UP WILL BEST BE ASSISTED BY CLEARING SKIES AND STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WINDING UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PLACE A CAP ON THE WARMING TREND, THOUGH THE 80S TO LOW 90S
LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FOR THE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH 12Z THEN WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONGER WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING OVERNIGHT BY 09Z
AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 16Z/17Z. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
LATER OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
FLOOD WATER ACROSS SEVERAL OF OUR COUNTIES WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE WITHIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
THE BASINS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE CONTINUED FLOODING INTO TONIGHT
INCLUDE:
WEST FORK OF THE BIG BLUE RIVER (DOWNSTREAM OF STOCKHAM)
BEAVER CREEK (GILTNER THROUGH YORK COUNTY)
LINCOLN CREEK (HAMILTON AND YORK COUNTIES)
SCHOOL CREEK DOWNSTREAM OF SUTTON
TURKEY CREEK IN FILLMORE COUNTY
LITTLE AND BIG SANDY CREEK (CORNER OF CLAY, FILLMORE, NUCKOLLS,
THAYER COUNTIES)
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND NON-IMPACTFUL TO OUR ONGOING FLOODING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
HYDROLOGY...WESELY
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