646
FXUS63 KGID 072051
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
351 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS HAS CONTINUED
TO LEAVE A FEW AREAS OF SLOW MOVING OR STANDING WATER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAMILTON, YORK AND FAR NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTIES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING
STATEMENT OR THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
- A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA PRIMARILY MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR THE 90S TO LOW 100S TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD STEER HIGHS MORE TOWARDS THE 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (15-40% CHANCE), FRIDAY NIGHT (15-30% CHANCE)
AND SATURDAY (20- 35% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN NEBRASKA LOCATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING (10-
25% CHANCE EAST OF HWY-281), MOST AREAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTENING SOUTHEAST WINDS. IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP, A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO
SEE IF COVERAGE BECOMES WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER, WILL BE IN
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE PRESENCE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
SYNOPTICALLY-SPEAKING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TODAY WILL MAKE SPACE FOR THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF A
LONGWAVE NORTH PACIFIC U.S. TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME THE PROMINENT DRIVING FORCE FOR THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THIS WEEK, INFLUENCING THE AREAS' PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AS FAR AS MONDAY GOES, WEAKER YET STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, WILL HELP ADVECT IN MORE MOISTURE (MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS). IN ADDITION, THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BECOME, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY (HIGHS NEARING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S). THIS WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS
WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY, LIKELY INFLATING CAPE VALUES
UP TO BETWEEN 2,500-4,000J/KG (MID TO HIGHER END VALUES FOR RAPID
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH). IN ADDITION, MODEST SHEAR (25-35KTS OF BULK
SHEAR) WITH SUPPORTIVE LOW-TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-9 C/KM)
APPEAR TO SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ANYWHERE STORMS FIRE. AS
RESULT OF THE SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT, A MARGINAL SPC SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FULL AREA FOR MONDAY.
SO, WHAT IS THE CATCH? LIKE WITH ALL FORECASTS, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CHANGE THE WAY THAT THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.
AS OF NOW, THE COLLECTION OF MODELS CONTINUE TO SORT INTO TWO
LEADING SCENARIOS. THE FIRST CONCERN REGARDS THE FORCING MECHANISM.
THE ABSENCE OF NOTABLE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM AN
APPROACHING TROUGH/PV ANOMALY, LEAVES US TO BELIEVE THAT ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS FOR MONDAY WILL BE LOCALLY FORCED RATHER THAN
FROM SYNOPTIC ASSENT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY IS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MAIN DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
HRRR/GFS AND NAMNEST/NAM/ECMWF MODELS TODAY IS WITH THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FRONT. THE HRRR/GFS MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTING MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. A LATER
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO
DESTABILIZE (ADDITIONALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ). IF
THIS SCENARIO ACTUALIZES, A MCS MAY BE FAVORED TO RACE THROUGH MUCH OF
OUR AREA (AT LEAST 50%, THE BEST POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE STATE LINE).
THE MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO
70MPH WITH LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER CASE, HOWEVER, WOULD STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE DISPERSED THROUGH
THE DAY AND MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO WIDESPREAD. THE
NAM/NAMNEST/ECMWF MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FASTER AT ADVANCING THE
FRONT, POTENTIALLY SEEING STORM ACTIVITY INITIALIZE EARLIER IN THE
DAY BEFORE THE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AND EARLIER IN THE DAY, ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS IF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRED LATER IN THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME.
AS IT STANDS, THERE IS TWO MAIN SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT THAT
COULD EFFECT WHEN STORMS DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD IMPACTS MAY
BECOME. EITHER WAY, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY AND BEYOND
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY, A MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY FOLLOW ON TUESDAY (20-30%
CHANCE). GIVEN WARMING TEMPERATURES, CONTINUED AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY INCREASES SHEAR FROM THE APPROACH OF THE
NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE IF
MONDAY NIGHTS' STORMS AFFECT TUESDY'S ENVIRONMENT, POTENTIALLY
LIMITING INSTABILITY FROM ANY LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS.
BESIDES THE RETURNING STORM CHANCES, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
TO BE ON TRACK TO NEAR AND REACH THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS A FEW
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOCATIONS. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S TUESDAY.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE ASSISTED BY STEADY
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS BLOWING BETWEEN 15-20MPH AND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE FULL AREA. AS RESULT,
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATION (LEVELS 2 & 3 OUT OF 4)
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS SUGGESTED THAT ANY
INDIVIDUAL WHO MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT TO HAVE AN
EFFECTIVE SOURCE FOR COOLING/HYDRATION. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT COULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THIS HIGH WOULD BE IF CLOUD
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY MORNING
OVERSTAY THEIR WELCOME.
A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WARMUP FROM LASTING PAST WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD NOT SURPASS
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. A FEW MORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS LIE IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY (15-40% CHANCES), FRIDAY
NIGHT (15-30%) AND SATURDAY (20-35% CHANCES). GIVEN LIMITED
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNFOLD THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK (PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH),
LIMITED DETAILS ARE CURRENTLY KNOWN ON THE INTENSITY, TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THESE POTENTIAL STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS RECENTLY RETURNING TO BOTH SITES WILL LAST UNTIL
AROUND 9Z WHEN FOG POTENTIALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
BETWEEN 9-14Z, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
WORST VISIBILITIES (AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 2 MILES) MAY BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 10-13Z. THOUGH THERE IS NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE
CURRENT TAF, A LIMITED 20% CHANCE LIES IN THE FORECAST MONDAY
MORNING (INCREASING POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY).
WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BLOWING
BETWEEN 10-15KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS,
BECOMING VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT, WILL LIKELY LEAD INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO BE
SLOW TO FILTER OUT OF A FEW PORTIONS OF HAMILTON, YORK AND FAR
NORTHERN FILLMORE COUNTIES AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
RIVERS/CREEKS REMAIN NEARLY FULL TO JUST OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS,
LEAVING A FEW AREA OF SLOW MOVING OR STANDING WATER. FLOODING ACROSS
A FEW OF THESE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS RESULT, AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE BASINS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE CONTINUED FLOODING INTO TONIGHT
INCLUDE: WEST FORK OF THE BIG BLUE RIVER (DOWNSTREAM OF STOCKHAM)
BEAVER CREEK (GILTNER THROUGH YORK COUNTY) LINCOLN CREEK (HAMILTON
AND YORK COUNTIES).
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND NON-IMPACTFUL TO OUR ONGOING FLOODING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
HYDROLOGY...STUMP
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