419
FXUS63 KGID 092346
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AS ACTIVITY PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KS/CO BORDER AREA.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- EXPECTING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY. LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING STORM CHANCES LOOK TO FOCUS TO OUR SE.
LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR I-80 ALONG AN INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
- FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND ON INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS THAT WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS...BEEN A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST/SERN COASTS.
THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE...AND WHILE IT HAS TAKEN ITS SWEET TIME SHIFTING
NORTH/DIMINISHING, MORE OF THE AREA IS SEEING SUN, HELPING TEMPS
CLIMB. TOOK A WHILE FOR THOSE MORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, STARTED THE DAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WERE ALSO AT
LEAST BRIEFLY TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING FROM OUTFLOW
FROM THE ACTIVITY THAT PUSHED EAST ACROSS NE. FINALLY HAVE
THOSE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
20-25 MPH. THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON TEMPERATURES,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LATE DAY RECOVERY WITH MORE SUN, MUCH OF THAT AREA WILL FALL AT
LEAST A BIT SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IS STILL
MAKING FOR STICKY CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
LOW 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ON INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS, SPARKED OFF BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THAT LARGER SCALE SWRLY
FLOW. WITH THAT AREA OF 70S DEWPOINTS NOSING INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA, NO SHORTAGE OF INSTABILITY...WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE
SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000-4000J/KG IN PLACE CWA-WIDE
HERE AT MID-AFTERNOON. STILL SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, BUT THAT
SHOULD WANE WITH TIME AS THAT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT SHOWING ACTIVITY WORKING ITS
WAY INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS.
BASICALLY THE ENTIRE CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE DAY 1 ENHANCED RISK
AREA...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 70
MPH. LARGE HAIL UP AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...AND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER EAST, THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
AS WELL. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY FROM N-S
THROUGH THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING BROKEN UP A BIT, WITH A MORE
SOUTHERN SECTION CLOSER TO/SOUTH OF HWY 6 INTO KS, THEN ANOTHER
MORE NORTH OF I- 80...WE'LL SEE IF IT ACTUALLY PANS OUT THAT
WAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING MOST OF/IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY BEING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE DAYTIME HOURS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE DRY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT LARGER SCALE TROUGHING WORKING
ITS WITH FURTHER EAST WITH TIME FURTHER INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SWINGING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...USHERING IN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS HELPS GIVE THAT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE A PUSH
EAST, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH
RESULTS IN SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH TEENS-20S FORECAST. WITH THE RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE AREA,
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO FURTHER GREEN UP...SO WHILE SOME WESTERN
AREAS FLIRT WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RH/WINDS, NOT
ANTICIPATING A FIRE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OFF
TO OUR ESE. OUR MAIN CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ARC OF LIKELY ELEVATED HAILERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME MODELS SHOWING
THE JET POTENTIALLY AROUND 50KTS, OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. AGREEMENT ISN'T TOO BAD AS FAR AS LOCATION GOES...MAINLY
A SOUTH CENTRAL NE ISSUE WEST OF HWY 183, AND GENERALLY AROUND
OR JUST NORTH OF I-80. THE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS A
SMALL WESTWARD BACK INTO THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
NEW WEEK...FORECAST DOES HAVE A LONGER DRY PERIOD FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW RETURNING TO
THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT ALSO SHOW A LACK OF NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. THAT CHANGES AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND-EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
FORECAST...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 80S-90S BY SATURDAY,
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S FOR SUN-MON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE FIRST 6HRS OF THE PERIOD, AS A CLUSTER OF
STORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWESTERN
KS. LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS FALLS IN THE
00-04Z TIME FRAME...ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE. CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY PAST ROUGHLY 09Z IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT THE MENTION WAS KEPT OUT OF BOTH TERMINALS. WITH THESE
STORMS, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS OUT OF
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS, BUT DID BACK OFF A BIT ON THE LENGTH OF TIME. FORECAST
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY FROM THE EARLY MORNING ON THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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