735
FXUS63 KGID 100935
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
435 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARM TODAY ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR W/NW
ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE STILL MARGINALLY SUSCEPTIBLE.
- SCATTERED ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL
THREAT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. GREATEST THREAT IS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-80, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
IS IN PLACE VIA LATEST SPC OUTLOOK.
- COOL AND COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
UP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- OVERALL PATTERN DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE STILL OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, MOST NOTABLY ON SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW WEAK STORMS DRIVEN BY 45-55KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THE LLJ DOES. THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS A COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY ANALYZED
FROM THE SANDHILLS TO NEAR DENVER) MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND USHERS IN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL
APPEARS ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT LATER
TODAY WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, NOT GOING TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR THANKS TO
DEEP WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL WARM QUITE
EASILY UNDER THE HIGH JUNE SUN ANGLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG AND W OF HWY 183, AND WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS 25-30 MPH, WOULD STILL NOT ADVISE BURNING IN PLACES
LIKE GOSPER AND DAWSON COUNTIES AND ANY NEARBY AREAS THAT
HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH RAIN LATELY GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
STILL EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER SUNSET, AND MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ATOP STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF INTENSE 50KT+ LLJ. AREA
AVERAGED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z HRRR ALONG I-80 AT 06Z
SHOW LITTLE TO NO CINH TO PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 800-750MB,
MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG, AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM.
THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH ROUGHLY 50KT OF
BULK SHEAR TO EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS STRONGLY SUGGESTS
SCATTERED ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
(1.5-2.0") BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE INITIAL (FIRST
30-90 MIN) DEVELOPMENT. THE VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DECREASE
AFTER THAT AS THE INTENSE FORCING ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VECTORS THAT ARE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE ZONE OF MAX CONVERGENCE
SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS.
ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT UNTIL ACTIVITY EXITS
THE AREA TO THE E/NE TOWARDS DAWN...BUT MORE LIKE 1.25-1.5".
AREAS THAT SEE THIS ACTIVITY CAN EXPECT A QUICK 0.5-1" OF
RAINFALL, PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE DRY, COOLER, AND WITH LESS
HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT
DECENT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. E/SE PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN A 15% SEVERE RISK AREA ON THE
LATEST SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS THAT WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS...BEEN A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN BROADER TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST/SERN COASTS.
THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SOME DRIZZLE...AND WHILE IT HAS TAKEN ITS SWEET TIME SHIFTING
NORTH/DIMINISHING, MORE OF THE AREA IS SEEING SUN, HELPING TEMPS
CLIMB. TOOK A WHILE FOR THOSE MORE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, STARTED THE DAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS HAVING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WERE ALSO AT
LEAST BRIEFLY TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING FROM OUTFLOW
FROM THE ACTIVITY THAT PUSHED EAST ACROSS NE. FINALLY HAVE
THOSE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
20-25 MPH. THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON TEMPERATURES,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NE...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
LATE DAY RECOVERY WITH MORE SUN, MUCH OF THAT AREA WILL FALL AT
LEAST A BIT SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IS STILL
MAKING FOR STICKY CONDITIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
LOW 70S.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ON INTO TONIGHT...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS, SPARKED OFF BY THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THAT LARGER SCALE SWRLY
FLOW. WITH THAT AREA OF 70S DEWPOINTS NOSING INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA, NO SHORTAGE OF INSTABILITY...WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE
SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000-4000J/KG IN PLACE CWA-WIDE
HERE AT MID-AFTERNOON. STILL SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, BUT THAT
SHOULD WANE WITH TIME AS THAT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT SHOWING ACTIVITY WORKING ITS
WAY INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS.
BASICALLY THE ENTIRE CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE DAY 1 ENHANCED RISK
AREA...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 70
MPH. LARGE HAIL UP AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...AND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER EAST, THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
AS WELL. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY FROM N-S
THROUGH THE CWA POTENTIALLY BEING BROKEN UP A BIT, WITH A MORE
SOUTHERN SECTION CLOSER TO/SOUTH OF HWY 6 INTO KS, THEN ANOTHER
MORE NORTH OF I- 80...WE'LL SEE IF IT ACTUALLY PANS OUT THAT
WAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING MOST OF/IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY BEING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE DAYTIME HOURS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE DRY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT LARGER SCALE TROUGHING WORKING
ITS WITH FURTHER EAST WITH TIME FURTHER INTO THE ROCKIES...WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SWINGING INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...USHERING IN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS HELPS GIVE THAT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE A PUSH
EAST, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S CURRENTLY FORECAST.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...WHICH
RESULTS IN SOME LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH TEENS-20S FORECAST. WITH THE RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE AREA,
HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO FURTHER GREEN UP...SO WHILE SOME WESTERN
AREAS FLIRT WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RH/WINDS, NOT
ANTICIPATING A FIRE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS...THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OFF
TO OUR ESE. OUR MAIN CONCERN COMES LATER IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ARC OF LIKELY ELEVATED HAILERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME MODELS SHOWING
THE JET POTENTIALLY AROUND 50KTS, OTHERS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. AGREEMENT ISN'T TOO BAD AS FAR AS LOCATION GOES...MAINLY
A SOUTH CENTRAL NE ISSUE WEST OF HWY 183, AND GENERALLY AROUND
OR JUST NORTH OF I-80. THE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS A
SMALL WESTWARD BACK INTO THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND START OF THE
NEW WEEK...FORECAST DOES HAVE A LONGER DRY PERIOD FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW RETURNING TO
THE UPPER LEVELS...BUT ALSO SHOW A LACK OF NOTABLE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. THAT CHANGES AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND-EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES RETURNING TO THE REGION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
FORECAST...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 80S-90S BY SATURDAY,
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S FOR SUN-MON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE NIGHT ARE NOW WELL OUT OF THE AREA
WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL SITES BEFORE 11Z. AS SHOWERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
TIME, THE MENTION OF -TSRA IS LIMITED TO A PROB30 GROUP. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 12-3Z.
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TONIGHT WILL NOT BE FOR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES (VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD) BUT
RATHER LLWS. UP TO 45-55KTS OF LLWS FROM THE PRESENCE OF A
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH AROUND 11Z.
SURFACE WINDS, STARTING OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND BLOWING
NEAR 20KTS, WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS THORUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWIVEL TO THE NORTHWEST,
SUSTAINING NEAR 15KTS AND GUSTING NEAR 25KTS DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY AFTER 23Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...STUMP
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