433
FXUS63 KGID 102347
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
647 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY AFTER
1AM TONIGHT. MAIN CHANCES FAVOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE...AT THIS POINT THINKING LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- SOME WEAK ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR THU-FRI REMAINS DRY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS...OUT OF THE NW ON THU, OUT
OF THE S ON FRI. COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW-80S ARE
FORECAST THU, BACK IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR FRI.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. COOLER HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S RETURN FOR SUN, CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S-90S
BY WED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
CURRENTLY...
AFTER A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER RESULTING IN A NOTABLE SWATH OF
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TODAY HAS BROUGHT A MUCH MORE QUIET
DAY. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDING EAST IS PUSHING A
SURFACE COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
LATEST OBS SHOWING IT HAVING MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SE
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT REALLY A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
COOLER AIR WITH THIS FRONT...IT'S MORE NOTABLE FEATURES ARE THE
SWITCH TO AT TIMES GUSTY NW WINDS AND A DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WE
WERE SITTING UNDER WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AT
THIS TIME TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN
THE 40S-50S. SATELLITE SHOWING NO SHORTAGE OF SUN ACROSS THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME CU DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING REMAINING
SE OF THE FORECAST AREA, ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO MO/IA...AND
THAT'S WHAT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN OVER THE LAST
HOUR.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
OVERALL, HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
THINKING...WITH THE EVENING HOURS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO/MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING.
MODELS SHOWING THIS LLJ RAMPING UP TO AROUND 45-50KTS...WITH
THE BEST CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG ITS NOSE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HI-RES MODELS HAVE VARIED SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
TIMING...WITH MOST FAVORING ANYTIME AFTER 06- 07Z. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION/COVERAGE...MOST MODELS HAVE
KEPT THE BETTER POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW JUST A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH (CLOSER TO HWY 6) AND WEST (AT LEAST ISOLATED BACK
INTO OUR WESTERN FRINGES). EXPECTATION THAT ANY STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, WITH MODELS SHOWING MUCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG PUSHING NORTH WITH TIME AND GOOD
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR...AND MOSTLY LIKELY REMAINING ELEVATED SET UP
NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY NEAR/LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS), DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY 12-15Z...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS NNERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST. ONCE IT DOES...THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY ON INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING
NORTHWESTELRY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE...TURNING MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY ACROSS A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CONUS, SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SRN TX BUT SPREAD OUT BOTH EAST AND WEST...AND A LARGER
LOW/BROAD TOUGHING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A REINFORCING SFC COOL
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURS
AM...USHERING IN STRONGER NW WINDS FOR THE DAY ON THURS AND
COOLER TEMPS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S-LOW 80S. THOSE GUSTY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH
WARMER TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.
AT LEAST PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DRIVING THEM ISN'T THE HIGHEST AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST TO BRING CHANCES IN ALREADY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...WITH QUESTIONS THEN
ARISING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AND IF THAT COULD IMPACT AT LEAST
SERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPC DAY 4 15 PERCENT AREA CURRENTLY
CLIPS OUR SE AREAS...WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES KEEP GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH THINGS POTENTIALLY
DRYING OUT MID-WEEK. TEMPS SAT THROUGH WED ARE UP AND
DOWN...WITH 80S-90S SAT DROPPING INTO THE LOW- MID 70S FOR SUN-
MON, CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S-90S FOR WED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE TO PASS BY
NEAR TO JUST NEXT TO BOTH KEAR AND KGRI (SLIGHTLY BETTER
POTENTIAL AT KGRI) BETWEEN 6-10Z. THESE STORMS COULD
TEMPORARILY OFFER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACHIEVE OR MVFR CEILINGS IF THE STORMS TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO
EITHER SITE. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OF THESE
STORMS, THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN STORM TRACKS KEEPS THE
MENTION OF THESE HAZARDS OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL MANAGE TO EVENTUALLY SETTLE
DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE OVERNIGHT STORMS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED DURING MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS
SPEEDS NEAR 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35KTS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...STUMP
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