432
FXUS63 KGID 120818
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY
BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
- HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY WILL SLIDE DOWN TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LATER REBOUND BACK TO THE
90S TO POTENTIALLY AROUND 100 DEGREES IN A HANDFUL OF PLACES
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AS "MOST" OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST IS
MORE DRY THAN WET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, EVEN A FEW UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE
TRADITIONAL COOLER AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF KEARNEY.
LOOK FOR A NICE DAY TODAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE, COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PICK UP AND GUST TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON, SO DON'T BE SHOCKED BY THE STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
TONIGHT, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN AGAIN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE. THAT WILL HELP RETURN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO THE REGION. SOME MODELS, BUT NOT ALL, DEVELOP
LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET AFTER 1 AM AND LINGER THEM INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY. TEAMED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE, EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY, ASSUMING MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT AS
WELL. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND CAPPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND ARE
FAVORED FOR THIS LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH ITS JUST 24
HOURS AWAY, SOME MORE MODEL CLARITY/CONSENSUS WOULD BE HELPFUL
IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE PROGRESS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY, AND SPREAD A NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA.
SPC HAS REMOVED ANY PART ANY OF THE AREA OUT OF THE DAY2 OUTLOOK
FOR SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKES ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO KANSAS TO
TAKE THE SEVERE RISK WITH IT. STILL, WE CARRY SMALL SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FOR LATER SATURDAY FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS.
COLD ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH WINDS MAKING FOR A COOLER AFTERNOON THAN TODAY. SKIES WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DROP OFF, LOOK FOR
ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
THE FORECAST IS TECHNICALLY DRY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE AREA REMAINS IN WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW, AND
WHILE NOT LIKELY WET, THIS FLOW CAN TEND BRING AFTERNOON
SPRINKLES OR EVEN SHOWERS, SO WATCH FOR FORECAST REFINEMENTS
THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES SNEAK INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW INTRODUCES RAIN/STORM CHANCES AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BACK A BIT THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
FOLLOWING A BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON (MID 70S TO LOW
80S), TONIGHT IS SUPPOSED TO REMAIN PRECIP FREE. FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE SEVERAL DAYS (SINCE SUNDAY), NO STORMS OR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL THREATEN THE AREA. ALOFT, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD ACROSS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY
EJECTS EAST AND AWAY. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ZONAL,
GENERALLY KNOWN TO BE A MORE QUIETER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGHER
PRESSURE MARCHING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S FRONT HAS HELPED CLEAR OUT
MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR THE DAY AND ALSO FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS AS
RESPONSE TO THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES BACK TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
BEGINNING TO LIGHTEN THIS EVENING, WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY. WINDS, THOUGH A LITTLE WEAKER FROM
TODAY, WILL STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
A NEARLY HORIZONTAL (NEGATIVELY) TILTED TROUGH ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER
CANADA'S HUDSON BAY, WILL SLIP SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE, MARKED BY A SOUTHWARD DROPPING STREAMER
OF VORTICITY, WILL NEAR NORTHMEN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS UNDERNEATH SHOULD BE IN PLAY TO INNATE A FEW
STORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW POCKETS OF HAIL OR
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
CONDITIONALLY, UP TO 2,000-3,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND AROUND 35-50KTS
OF BULK SHEAR WOULD GENERALLY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW WELL THE MOISTURE
WILL REBOUND FROM TODAY
TODAY WILL BE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST-TO-EAST
TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES. THE CURRENT FORECAST
PROJECTS DEWPOINTS TO ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AT
LEAST INITIALLY, GENERALLY NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE. A FEW OF
THESE OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY LAYS ACROSS A LIMITED
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM HEBRON, NE TO OSBORNE, KS). THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON WHERE THE FRONT MAKES IT SATURDAY
MORNING. SURGING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT DAY WILL MEET THE
FRONT, HELPING DEVELOP A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY, AS OF NOW, IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IF A STORM DOES MANAGED TO CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OR EASTERN KANSAS AREAS, THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTER AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. OTHERWISE, HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF FRIDAY (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN BACK NORTHERLY BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT WITH SUSTAINED 15-20MPH
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH 25-35MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP THE
FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY "WET" WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF MINOR POPS
(10-20% CHANCES) SCATTERED HEAR AND THERE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD (THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY). THERE IS NOT A PARTICULAR DAY THAT
STANDS OUT AS BEING FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OR
PRECIPITATION AS OF NOW. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT
FOR THE WEEK SUNDAY (LOW TO MID 70S) AND GRADUALLY WARMING UP BACK
TO THE 90S TO LOW 100S POTENTIALLY BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
VEER TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 28 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS A SSW NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND THE
SURFACE WINDS START TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN THE MAGNITUDE, HEIGHT, AND COVERAGE OF THIS SHEAR IS LOW AND
HAS THUS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (6Z AND BEYOND). AGAIN, THIS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACTS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCOTT
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