872
FXUS63 KGID 260023
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
723 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN KS?), ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG WILL
REIGN OVER MUCH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- FRIDAY BRINGS ONE LAST DAY OF SEASONABLY-COOL HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S BEFORE SATURDAY SERVES AS THE "TRANSITION DAY" WITH
HIGHS MAINLY 80S.
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF
SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS AT LEAST
INTO LOW-MID 90S...LIKELY SERVING AS A "SHOCK TO OUR SYSTEMS"
IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING/PROLONGED COOLER STRETCH.
- ALONG WITH THE HEAT, MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WILL BRING
DEWPOINT VALUES UP WELL INTO THE 60S TO EVEN LOW 70S
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES). THIS COMBO OF
HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AS HIGH AS
100-105 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY...AT LEAST APPROACHING
OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT ROOKS COUNTY COULD BE CLIPPED BY
SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WATER CONCERNS
IF THAT DOES OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT SOLUTION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CAUSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BE
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES, STRONGER THAN WE'VE SEEN FOR A FEW DAYS.
LIKEWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH HIGHS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR SATURDAY AND THEN 90S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT 70+ DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE BACK
NORTH. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA/MISSOURI, ETC. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WILL
BE QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AFTER THE COOLER PAST WEEK HAS
BEEN. HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. CONTRASTINGLY, THE
DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VISIBLE WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO MIX OUT
AND TEMPS SURGE EVEN HIGHER...PRIMARILY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS JUNE ENDS AND JULY BEGINS NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STAY IN THE 90S WHILE THE TROUGH PERSISTS OUT WEST WITH RIDGING
TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS. DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST COULD CAUSE A FEW SPORADIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS
IS LOW.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS):
BY FAR THE MAIN ISSUE/CHALLENGE WILL BE TO WHAT EXTENT CEILINGS
(AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY TO A LESSER/BRIEFER EXTENT) DROP BELOW
VFR DURING THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT LEAST
10-12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE AT LEAST MVFR CEILING
(POSSIBLY LOWER?) AND ALSO PERHAPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG/POSSIBLY EVEN LIGHT DRIZZLE. ASIDE FROM
ANY POSSIBLE LIGHT DRIZZLE, CHANCES FOR ANY BRIEF/STEADIER
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT APPEAR QUITE MINIMAL...NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR TAF
INCLUSION. WIND-WISE, NO BIG CONCERNS TO SPEAK OF WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ALMOST ENTIRELY AT-OR-BELOW 11KT AND ANY GUSTS MAINLY
UNDER 17KT...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, TO SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY DETAILS:
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY THE CEILING
FORECAST REMAINS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE LAST
FEW DAYS, THIS TAF PERIOD LIKELY FEATURES CONSIDERABLY GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-VFR CEILING (ALONG WITH
PERHAPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY). RIGHT OUT
OF THE GATE THIS EVENING, HIGH-END MVFR CLOUDS ARE FLIRTING
WITH KEAR, BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE BRIEF/UNSUSTAINED. MUCH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR MVFR ARRIVE AROUND 08-09Z...POSSIBLY ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY AT KEAR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CEILING COULD
EVEN DROP TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY ESPECIALLY
09-16Z, BUT WITH "MIXED SIGNALS" ON CEILING DROPPING THIS LOW
HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT IFR WITH SCATTERED GROUPS. CEILING
CATEGORY UNCERTAINTY ACTUALLY LINGERS RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AS ALTHOUGH TAFS CURRENTLY CALL FOR A RETURN TO VFR
AROUND 20Z WITH LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT, SOME GUIDANCE HOLDS
ONTO A HIGH-END MVFR CEILING RIGHT ON THROUGH 00Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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