764
FXUS63 KGID 260546
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAYBE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM IN KS?), ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG WILL
REIGN OVER MUCH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- FRIDAY BRINGS ONE LAST DAY OF SEASONABLY-COOL HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S BEFORE SATURDAY SERVES AS THE "TRANSITION DAY" WITH
HIGHS MAINLY 80S.
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF
SUMMER HEAT/HUMIDITY SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS AT LEAST
INTO LOW-MID 90S...LIKELY SERVING AS A "SHOCK TO OUR SYSTEMS"
IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING/PROLONGED COOLER STRETCH.
- ALONG WITH THE HEAT, MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WILL BRING
DEWPOINT VALUES UP WELL INTO THE 60S TO EVEN LOW 70S
(ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES). THIS COMBO OF
HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AS HIGH AS
100-105 ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY...AT LEAST APPROACHING
OFFICIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT ROOKS COUNTY COULD BE CLIPPED BY
SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WATER CONCERNS
IF THAT DOES OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT SOLUTION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CAUSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BE
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES, STRONGER THAN WE'VE SEEN FOR A FEW DAYS.
LIKEWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH HIGHS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR SATURDAY AND THEN 90S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT 70+ DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE BACK
NORTH. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA/MISSOURI, ETC. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WILL
BE QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AFTER THE COOLER PAST WEEK HAS
BEEN. HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. CONTRASTINGLY, THE
DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VISIBLE WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO MIX OUT
AND TEMPS SURGE EVEN HIGHER...PRIMARILY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS JUNE ENDS AND JULY BEGINS NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STAY IN THE 90S WHILE THE TROUGH PERSISTS OUT WEST WITH RIDGING
TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS. DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST COULD CAUSE A FEW SPORADIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS
IS LOW.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT
KEAR/KGRI. MVFR STRATUS IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH KEAR AT
MVFR ALREADY AND REACHING KGRI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
CEILINGS ARE FAVORED TO LOWER NEAR IFR AT KEAR, BUT REMAIN
HIGHER AT KGRI. CONFIDENCE IN KEAR REACHING IFR CONDITIONS IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
IFR STRATUS SETS UP NEAR/OVER THE AREA. MVFR STRATUS IS FAVORED
TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS, AND THE EXACT
TIMING OF STRATUS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE
OPTED TO GO ON THE LATER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD MVFR-IFR STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA, THOUGH
GUIDANCE FAVORS IT RETURNING JUST PAST THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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