493
FXUS63 KGID 280441
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR A FEW OF OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM 1PM UNTIL 10PM SUNDAY.
- HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 90S WITH A FEW
ISOLATED PLACES IN THE LOW 100S (MAINLY AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE STATE LINE). HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 95-106
DEGREES.
- HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL MAINLY KEEP BETWEEN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 100S.
- THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT (25-50%
CHANCES), TUESDAY NIGHT (30-60% CHANCES) AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(10-30% CHANCES).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MADE A CONSIDERABLE LEAP UP TO THE
80S ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS. THE PRESENCE OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO HELPED
ADVECT IN THE WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS TODAY. THIS WARMING TREND
WILL BE EXPECTED TO BLEED INTO SUNDAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TAKE
FULL ADVANTAGE OF DIURNAL HEATING IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTING WINDS.
PATTERN-WISE, THE AREA RESTS UNDERNEATH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST (RISING PRESSURE) AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST (FALLING PRESSURE). THESE TWO FEATURES ALMOST
BALANCE ONE ANTHER OUT, SETTING UP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET RIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST DISTURBANCE, STORM TRAJECTORIES
(TRACKS) WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE (NORTHWEST) OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY: THE HEAT SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ANOTHER 10-15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE BOARD THANKS TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURPASS 100
DEGREES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE
(PRIMARILY ACROSS A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS). HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 95 TO 106 DEGREES, GENERALLY
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHER HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS > 70 DEGREES) WILL BE
EXPECTED TO LIE. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1PM AND
10PM SUNDAY FOR COUNTIES SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SMITH COUNTY
IN KANSAS UP TO ADAMS AND OVER TO POLK COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA. AREAS
WITHIN THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN EXCEEDANCE OF 100 DEGREES.
THE BIGGEST AND MOST RECENT CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HAS
BEEN THE ADJUSTMENT OF WHERE AND WHEN THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY. NEW GUIDANCE HAS REVEALED THAT THE
GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (15-30 MPH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES). MOST OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS >20MPH UNTIL THE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE GUSTIEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD (30-
35+MPH) WILL NOT COME UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL COME AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
COMPRESSES THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FULL FORECAST AREA WILL FALL UNDER AT LEAST THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATION WITH AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
NANCE TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND ALL OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED WITH THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK
CLASSIFICATION. THE MAJOR HEAT-RISK CLASSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT
ANY INDIVIDUAL WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR AN EFFECTIVE COOLING
SOURCE, MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
GREATER CONFIDENCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EACH DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO RANGE THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 100S EVERY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT MONDAY "SHOULD" (NOT GUARANTEED)
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE POSSIBILITY
FOR FURTHER HEAT CONCERNS COULD STILL RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MUCH OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
DRY, THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THE BEST
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACTIVITY (30-60% CHANCES) WITH CHANCES CONCENTRATED MORE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT (25-50% CHANCES). A FEW
OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE (MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80), ALTHOUGH THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD MAINLY LIE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MID-WEEK
ACTIVITY WILL COME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST U.S. TROUGH
EVENTUALLY SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND ANY LOWER
CEILINGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF EAR/GRI.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, AND WILL
RETURN SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ049-063-064-
075>077-085>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ006-007-018-
019.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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